Today’s notice: Reading the FEC reports. Debate night in Alaska. The final Maine Senate match. The siren call of the “reach seats.” House Republicans prepare for a post-election leadership fight. And: Nebraska implemented Medicaid changes early, and Republicans are feeling the heat.
THE LATEST
What’s in the FEC files: A particularly huge pile of money is sloshing around American politics right now, and this week is one of the few where we actually get to learn anything about it thanks to campaign finance laws. The Washington Sun’s Money & Influence Team (led by the inestimable, well-suited Dave Levinthal) pulled some of the big stories out of the FEC filings.
First, some smaller stories:
- $978.68: The typical “win bonus” handed out by Democrat Graham Platner’s campaign after his Maine primary win.
- $20,246.64: The “severance payroll” Platner’s camp gave his wife after the campaign ended.
- $0: The amount paid to full-time campaign staff on Sen. Roger Marshall’s (R-Kansas) disclosures.
- $2 million: The amount the campaign of Rep. Ralph Norman (R-South Carolina) is in debt to the congressman after a summer of losing two chances at a Senate seat.
- $1.8 million: The amount Rep. Cory Mills (R-Florida) owes himself from his campaign after a worse summer than even Norman’s.
- $260.60: How much the campaign of Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) spent at a nightclub in the Philippines. His summer was no prize, either.
Trending
More: Musk Appears to Have Forked Over $158M to Help Paxton • Max Miller’s Campaign Is Deep in Debt — To Miller Himself • Will AOC Challenge Schumer in 2028? She Certainly Has a Cash Advantage. • Trump’s Legal Fund Is Flirting With Insolvency
FROM ALASKA
Debate notes: Democratic Senate nominee Mary Peltola directly read off note cards printed with tiny text so often at last night’s debate that Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan asked the moderators at one point if he was supposed to have gotten the questions in advance. Sullivan had notes, too, but appeared to ad-lib his answers a lot more.
Substantively, the debate featured Sullivan taking every opportunity to express disagreements with Donald Trump, particularly on the recent White House deal to import Russian diesel. Peltola defended herself against allegations she mistreated staff and attacked Sullivan over Trump policy moves like the war in Iran.
Changing color? “I believe it is turning purple. I can feel it,” former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich, a member of a long-running Alaska political family, told The Sun’s Alex Roarty on a recent trip to the state. “It’ll probably take two more cycles to prove it.”
Politics here is not like politics in the Lower 48. The State Legislature for years has had an unusual bipartisan, moderate power-sharing agreement to silence partisan extremists, Alex writes. Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski, another political scion, won a write-in reelection in 2010 after losing her primary to a Tea Party-backed candidate. Democrats think the GOP’s increasing shift away from a civil tone could open the door.
Republicans disagree, including Begich’s nephew Nick Begich, who is a Republican House member. “Alaska’s future is heavily dependent upon our ability to effectively advocate for resource development in our state,” he said. “And the Democrat Party, for whatever reason, has not been supportive of resource development in Alaska for many years.”
FROM MAINE
No love lost here: “Oh, shut up — I don’t even know that kid!” Democratic nominee Troy Jackson snapped at Republican Sen. Susan Collins during last night’s final debate of the Senate contest. That came after a member of the debate audience loudly interrupted Collins, saying, “AI data centers are destroying our climate. They are poisoning our waters,” and Collins labeled him one of Jackson’s supporters.
FROM ARKANSAS
Democrats’ French Hill conundrum: The Sun’s Paul Kane reports that Democrats are talking about spending resources to flip Arkansas’ 2nd District, which Hill has represented for years. It’s a sure sign the party is thinking about “reach seats,” places where, the theory goes, a little money could extend a blue wave. The problem, Paul notes, is that reach seats can be shiny objects that can distract from the actual battlegrounds where resources would be better spent. That’s what happened in 2020 — Democrats spent a lot on seats like Hill’s, only to see winnable races get starved for attention.
FROM A POTENTIAL FUTURE
Shrinking-presidential-influence alert: “Not one bit” is how one GOP lawmaker described how much Trump’s wishes will matter in the next House Republican leadership race. “Especially if we have lost, because people will blame him.” The Sun’s Kadia Goba and Reese Gorman preview a chaotic Republican conference with the possibility of a sizable midterm loss — and with Trump’s power to select leaders diminished, Speaker Mike Johnson’s future is uncertain.
“He will not run unopposed” for another term as conference leader, a senior Republican lawmaker said. Already laying the groundwork to replace Johnson are Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan.
NEW ON THE WASHINGTON SUN
Nebraska is running a Medicaid political experiment: The state imposed the Medicaid work requirements in the “one big, beautiful bill” in July, six months before it was legally required to do so. The impact has been swift: More than 1,000 people in the state have lost access to care so far. The Sun’s Avani Kalra reports that health care leaders, Republican observers and others now think it’s a key contributor to a political climate that suddenly has GOP leaders on the defensive in a state that’s reliably red.
“It’s gotten cast as you’re kicking people off health insurance and kicking people off government help,” said Perre Neilan, a Republican strategist in the state.
More: Musk Settles Lawsuits Over His $1 Million Election Giveaways • White House Press Secretary Explains Her Rocky Briefing Debut • Trump Donor Says His Guilfoyle Lawsuit Could ‘Bring Down’ the Administration
NOT US
- Donald Trump vs. the Lorax, by Maura Judkis for The Washington Post
- Anti-Israel Protesters Pose a Purity Test That Even Mamdani Can’t Pass, by Matt Flegenheimer, Sally Goldenberg and Liam Stack for The New York Times
- YOLO Chuck: Schumer’s final fight, by Hans Nichols for Axios
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The newsletter was produced by Thomas Burr and Andrew Burton.
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