Senate Republicans’ top super PAC predicted last year that it could cost up to $200 million to boost Ken Paxton in Texas — estimates that have proven to be remarkably accurate, according to new financial disclosures released Thursday.
The Senate Leadership Fund’s latest quarterly disclosure shows it spent $356 million between July 1 and Sept. 30, which included $158 million to the political committee’s Texas affiliate arm — money that appears to have come directly from tech mogul Elon Musk.
Between Sept. 4 and Oct. 15, Texas PAC has disclosed more than $148 million in spending on Paxton, a number that does not include future ad reservations and is certain to keep rising before Nov. 3.
That money has been crucial in promoting Paxton in broadcast and digital media spots — especially as President Donald Trump remains relatively uninvolved in the effort to financially boost Paxton over Democrat James Talarico, who is leading in many recent polls.
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In a memo to donors last year, SLF directors projected that it could take up to $200 million to keep the seat red with Paxton on the ballot in November, compared to an estimated $25 million to $70 million to help Cornyn win reelection.
“Turns out that that assessment was accurate,” Alex Latcham, SLF’s executive director, told Bloomberg Wednesday, also thanking unnamed “generous investors” who dedicated money to the political committee’s Texas PAC affiliate arm.
One of those donors was Musk, who accounted for nearly 58% of the money SLF raised last quarter, with a combined contribution of $158 million in September. Musk’s political adviser, Chris Young, had coordinated with Latcham to start funneling money to a pro-Paxton super PAC, Axios reported Thursday. Republicans eventually generated $20 million to put up broadcast ads for the Republican nominee.
Musk made individual donations of $75 million on Sept. 9 and $83 million on Sept. 23, according to disclosures filed Thursday. SLF funneled those exact amounts to Texas PAC one day later.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has repeatedly acknowledged Paxton’s race will be expensive, and urged President Donald Trump to get involved sooner rather than later once Talarico began surging in polling against the state attorney general. Trump-affiliated political committees have only disclosed $30.6 million in spending since entering the race in September, though the president has increased his rally presence in Texas to boost Paxton — including choosing Dallas to host his midterm convention, an event Paxton described as “not good” for his numbers in audio that leaked weeks later.
Even as both parties shuffle their remaining ad reservations in other battlegrounds in a flurry of triaging, Republicans’ most consistent priority spend has been in Texas.
Republicans have significantly outpaced Democrats on Texas broadcast ads so far — expected in a reliably red state with an expensive media market — with GOP-aligned groups spending $230 million in ads and reservations, compared to Democrats’ $94 million, per AdImpact. A group affiliated with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, meanwhile, has disclosed only $5.6 million for digital advertising after kicking off an ad campaign at the end of September.
For his part, outgoing Sen. John Cornyn has steered clear of boosting Paxton himself after losing to the state attorney general in a bitter runoff that prompted a petty battle for Trump’s endorsement.
Cornyn hosted a late September fundraiser for battleground Republicans with former President George W. Bush, purposefully keeping Paxton off the guest list. The Republican nominee “doesn’t need the money,” Cornyn told reporters last month when asked about the Dallas event, adding that dollars can go farther in smaller states.
“There are still bitter feelings on both sides between Senator John Cornyn, Senator Paxton. We need to consolidate,” Latcham told Bloomberg, saying the pair needs to end their conflict. “Unite around Ken Paxton, with the understanding that it’s just too important for the party. We have to retain the seat.”
“I’m confident that that’s happening,” he added, “but certainly, it’s a narrow runway here.”
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