There’s a big factor missing from the next race to lead House Republicans: President Donald Trump.
With House Republicans facing the prospect that they could be in the minority next year, and Trump himself entering the back end of his own lame-duck period, some believe the president’s influence won’t close the deal for Mike Johnson if he runs to remain the top elected leader.
“Not one bit,” one GOP lawmaker, given anonymity to speak freely, told The Washington Sun when asked if Trump’s endorsement matters. “Especially if we have lost, because people will blame him.”
Trump’s unique power has loomed over leadership races since Kevin McCarthy’s bruising bid in 2023, when the president’s endorsement and personal phone calls helped sway some holdouts from blocking McCarthy’s path.
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Trump intervened again during the next speaker’s race, after McCarthy was ousted 10 months later, when he thwarted Rep. Tom Emmer’s chances with a simple Truth Social post calling the Republican whip “totally out of touch.” And when Mike Johnson sought a full term as speaker in 2024, the president pressured some reluctant members to coalesce around Johnson to help him secure the gavel in 2025.
Heading into the next Congress, Republican lawmakers are split on Trump’s pull, with some saying it’s “not nearly as much” this round and others saying the president’s opinion would have some impact.
Johnson has made it clear he wants to lead his conference, whether or not Republicans maintain the majority. He currently has the backing of the president, who still thinks fondly of the Louisianan, according to two White House officials. But the path for Johnson won’t be easy, members say.
“He will not run unopposed,” one senior GOP member said.
Asked to comment on the speaker’s plan, a Johnson spokesperson referred The Sun to recent interviews with Johnson saying he believes Republicans will keep the majority and that he will remain the top leader.
But in an interview with Fox News recently, Johnson said he was unsure of what his next chapter would be if Democrats flip control of the House, saying that “if God moves on our hearts” he could go back to his hometown of Shreveport to start a “lawn business.”
Days later, in an interview with CBS News, he clarified his comments were “tongue in cheek” and added, “I would expect my colleagues would call upon me to continue to lead the conference in a divided government” if House Republicans lost the majority.
There are two other potential candidates laying the groundwork to lead the GOP conference next year. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise is popular with many members, who view him as personable, loyal and a savvy operator. And then there’s House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan, who has been traveling and raising money for colleagues over the past year in what many view as building support to run for the top post.
Even if Johnson had Trump’s backing, that hasn’t always helped in the past. In 2023, following McCarthy’s ouster, Trump publicly backed Jordan for speaker over Scalise. However, on the private ballot, Scalise came out victorious.
Similarly, when Jordan did eventually get the nomination after Scalise dropped out, Trump’s endorsement didn’t translate into votes on the floor, as a bloc of members opposed him on multiple ballots.
Following the defeat, Jordan has been attempting to rebuild his image into someone who is a team player. He’s been in constant contact with the Republican conference through weekly, and at times daily, check-ins with his colleagues across the conference, multiple members told The Sun.
“Jim Jordan calls me every week, and he knows I wasn’t for him last time and not for him this time, and yet he still calls,” one lawmaker told The Sun.
Trump will have a bit more sway if Republicans retain the majority because lawmakers will have to publicly cast their ballot for speaker on the House floor. But, in the minority, members will vote via secret ballot the week after the midterms in a closed-door election, where Republican lawmakers say Trump’s power diminishes dramatically.
White House spokesperson Liz Huston, asked about Trump’s role, told The Sun, “President Trump is focused on maintaining Republican majorities in Congress.”
“If we win, then POTUS runs the show, as always,” one lawmaker, given anonymity to speak candidly, told The Sun. “But if we lose, he’s got a lot less stroke.”
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