Control of Congress may not be determined for hours, days or even weeks after Election Day. But polls will begin closing at 6 p.m. ET. Here are the races to watch early in the evening that may indicate how the results play out.
After 6 p.m.
Kentucky: Polls in eastern Kentucky will close at 6 p.m. ET, tied for the earliest in the country.
The earliest relevant returns, then, could come out of Kentucky’s 6th District, based in Lexington. The 6th went for President Donald Trump by 15 percentage points in 2024, but national Democrats are targeting it anyway and The Cook Political Report has rated it a “toss-up.” The seat is open as incumbent Republican Rep. Andy Barr runs to succeed Mitch McConnell in the Senate.
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After 7 p.m.
Virginia: Keep an eye on the battleground 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts.
The 1st is considered the true toss-up: Republican Rep. Rob Wittman has represented the Northern Neck region for close to two decades and was reelected in 2024 by a double-digit margin. If Wittman is in trouble, the GOP could be in for a long night.
Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans is considered more imperiled in the coastal 2nd District, which in the past decade has gone from red to blue and back to red again. If Kiggans’ race is called against her quickly, keep an eye on the 5th District along the commonwealth’s southwestern corner, because if that Trump +12 seat is close, it’s going to be a very long night for Republicans.
Florida: The 14th and 22nd Congressional Districts were redrawn to favor Republicans earlier this year as part of the redistricting wars, but both are considered toss-ups. If Tuesday turns into a blue wave, those new maps could backfire.
The Tampa-based 14th is represented by Rep. Kathy Castor and was redrawn to add rural areas in eastern and southern Hillsborough County.
The 22nd stretches from western Palm Beach County across the Everglades to Marco Island on the Gulf Coast. Trump would have won it by 11 percentage points in 2024 but would have lost it by 3 percentage points in 2020. The Republican candidate has spent heavily on TV advertising in lieu of in-person campaigning.
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Rep. María Elvira Salazar’s Miami-based 27th District remains largely unchanged under the new map but will also be under the microscope. Salazar has been one of the loudest Republicans critiquing Trump’s immigration crackdown.
South Carolina: Polling indicates Democrat Annie Andrews has a chance of scoring an upset win over Republican Sen. Darline Graham, the sister of the late Lindsey Graham, in a state Trump won by 18 percentage points two years ago.
Black voters accounted for almost 30% of early voting, a large enough share that could boost Andrews. Graham, a political newcomer, has been buoyed by two October visits from Trump.
Georgia: Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is favored to win reelection over his Republican opponent, Rep. Mike Collins.
A key question is whether his coattails can help Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms make history and become the nation’s first Black woman to be elected governor. Bottoms, a former Atlanta mayor, is locked in a tight race with Republican Rick Jackson, a billionaire health care executive who has spent more than $200 million of his own money on his campaign.
After 7:30 p.m.
Ohio: Democrat Sherrod Brown is mounting a competitive comeback bid against Republican Sen. Jon Husted. Some Republicans worry Husted could be dragged down by gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who is trailing in polls against Democrat Amy Acton.
Congressional races in Districts 7, 9, 10 and 15 are also considered competitive.
North Carolina: Republicans have held the 11th congressional district in western North Carolina since 2013. But political operatives of both parties believe the district of outgoing Rep. Chuck Edwards is leaning Democratic this cycle.
North Carolina’s 1st District is also considered a toss-up, even after it was redrawn to be more conservative earlier this year. Democratic Rep. Don Davis is looking to defend his seat from a Trump-backed challenger in the northeastern part of the state.
The rest of the night … and after
After 8 p.m. ET, polls will close in more than a dozen states, and continue to close for hours thereafter. In the competitive state of Alaska, polls will close at midnight ET.
If Tuesday is the blue wave Democrats are hoping for, control of Congress could be called by midnight. But a closer contest could mean we won’t know the balance of power for days or weeks. Counting in California is famously slow because most voters there cast ballots by mail, and the state has two Republican seats that could swing to the Democrats.
Results are also slow to come out of Alaska, where a crucial Senate race is on the ballot.
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