North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District sits in a rural and conservative region of the state, has been held by a Republican for more than a decade and backed Donald Trump by a nearly double-digit margin in 2024.
And right now, it might be on the verge of turning blue in November.
Republicans are in serious danger of losing a once safe seat in the 11th District, according to more than a dozen interviews with local and national political operatives from both parties. They described the race between Democrat Jamie Ager and Republican state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom as teetering toward Democratic control for months, thanks to what one local Democratic official called a “perfect storm” of problems for Republicans both locally and nationally.
Republicans in the district suffered a blow over the summer when incumbent Rep. Chuck Edwards was forced to end his campaign under scandal. He was censured by Congress in early September following a House ethics investigation.
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Conditions for the party deteriorated further this fall, as Trump’s poll numbers slid nationally and the Republican nominee for Senate in North Carolina, Michael Whatley, struggled to gain traction at the top of the ticket.
Some Republicans fear that with less than two weeks to go, the race is already lost.
“The bad environment in North Carolina, combined with a dead top of the ticket and a scandal with the incumbent made this a long shot to hold onto this cycle,” said one Republican strategist who works on House races, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “They probably knew that in September but fought it out as long as they could.”
In a sign of the party’s growing skepticism about their chances in the district, No Going Back PAC, a Trump-controlled super PAC, on Tuesday canceled future ad reservations in the district, a source familiar with the group confirmed to The Washington Sun. (The spending cut was first reported by Punchbowl News.)
Other Republican groups, like the National Republican Congressional Committee, are still slated to spend in the district over the next two weeks, but party operatives are increasingly skeptical that they can salvage a win. Balkcom’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment about the race.
“I actually think the rating in the 11th District should be likely Democrat, not lean Democrat,” said one North Carolina Republican strategist, given anonymity to speak candidly about the race. “Based on early voting, it is a likely Democratic district.”
At a rally in Greenville, North Carolina, on Tuesday, Trump suggested that both Balkcom and Laurie Buckhout, the Republican candidate for the 1st District, were going to have “close races,” requiring a “special call out” from the president.
The Republican strategist said they expected that Rep. Richard Hudson’s race in the central part of the state, considered a safe Republican seat, would likely be more competitive on Election Day, despite it being viewed as a safe seat for the GOP for most of the cycle. Hudson recently began spending on TV advertising, and the Democratic super PAC House Majority PAC has identified the race to donors as a potential target.
The GOP’s troubles in the 11th District are both a sign of how deeply Democrats might reach into formerly red terrain — Democratic operatives are increasingly confident about their chances in an array of seats Trump won by double digits — and a confluence of local factors that have made the seat uniquely tough for Republicans.
Edwards’ sudden departure left Republicans in a bind. The party had to quickly choose a new candidate after Edwards dropped out of the race following allegations that he was sexually harassing women on his congressional staff. It gave Balkcom little time — less than three months — to introduce herself to the voters across the district, which spans 16 rugged, mountainous counties.
“When we’re out here talking to people, there are still people who are like, ‘Well, wait, what happened to Chuck?” said a Republican Party volunteer in western North Carolina who was given anonymity to speak candidly.
Margaret Ackiss, a member at large of the 11th District’s Republican Party who nominated Balkcom to run for the seat, described the fallout from Edwards’ scandal and late-stage dropout as resulting in a “sad state of affairs.” Balkcom’s path to winning would require balancing getting her name out in rural counties like Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Macon and Swain — the reddest parts of the region — while attempting to win unaffiliated voters near the district’s population center, Ackiss said.
“The outer rim of far western North Carolina, they have no idea who she is,” Ackiss said.
Democratic campaign operatives in Washington consider Ager one of their best recruits of the cycle. Ager has deep family roots in the district and styles himself as a “Mountain Democrat” not beholden to his party.
“The number one thing I think that’s made this competitive is Jamie Ager,” said Grayson Barnette, who is managing Ager’s campaign.
The GOP’s troubles, the national momentum for Democrats and Ager’s appeal have made local Democrats feel confident about flipping the seat.
“All of these things have just come together for a perfect storm for 2026, and that’s what makes us optimistic,” said Beth Jones, Democratic chair of the 11th District.
National Democrats have been bullish on Ager’s chances for months, considering him more likely to win than many of the party’s other candidates in competitive races. One Democratic strategist gave Ager a “90%” chance of winning; another operative said they had already mentally put his race in the win column.
Some Republicans are holding out hope for Balkcom, saying that they think the race has tightened in recent weeks. Vice President JD Vance visited the district Monday to rally Republicans, in a boost to Balkcom.
“NC-11 is a Republican district, Jennifer Balkcom is a phenomenal candidate with deep local roots, and liberal Jamie Ager is a partisan Democrat whose radical tax-and-spend policies firmly align him with the Democratic Socialist extremists engaging in a hostile takeover of his party,” said Reilly Richardson, a NRCC spokesperson, in a statement. “Voters know Ager would make their lives more expensive and less safe, which is why they’ll turn out for Jennifer Balkcom.”
Some local Republicans still believe the district is a tough place for a Democrat to escape the party’s battered reputation, especially on cultural issues.
“What the Democrat Party stands for just doesn’t align with the values that are deeply held by the people here,” said Merry Guy, chair of the District 11 GOP. “And I’m talking about some of those good old blue dog Democrats, too — their party has left them, and they know that.”
The district’s Republican representatives, though, have had trouble for years. Edwards’ predecessors faced scandals of their own. Former Rep. Madison Cawthorn’s time in Congress was plagued by multiple run-ins with the law and allegations that he sexually harassed college classmates. Cawthorn’s predecessor, former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, was held in contempt of Congress for not complying with a subpoena from the House select committee, which was investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol.
If this district flips next month, the 2024 election results serve as foreshadowing. Nine counties in the district moved slightly leftward in 2024 as a majority of the state and country moved to the right.
“It’s a Republican-leaning district, but it is an election year where that may get wiped out,” said longtime Republican political consultant Carter Wrenn. He added that the dominant factor in the race is Trump rather than either candidate’s strengths.
“It’s in Trump’s hands,” Wrenn said.
Right now, the trends are not in the GOP’s favor. The war in Iran remains unpopular, and rising gas prices are frustrating voters. Economic pressures in the 11th District are compounded by what’s been a slow recovery process after Hurricane Helene ravaged the district in 2024.
Republicans are also concerned that Whatley, their Senate candidate, will stunt the success of others downballot. Whatley entered the race with Trump’s endorsement but has consistently trailed in polls to former Gov. Roy Cooper.
“Michael Whatley will be an albatross on everyone below him on the ballot, and that could’ve been controlled if President Trump would’ve kept his thumb off the scale,” said Michele Woodhouse, a former Republican chair of the 11th District.
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