Red States Are Trending Blue. Is Mississippi Really on the Table?

It’s no secret Republicans are facing a difficult political environment that has boosted Democrats’ hopes of winning the Senate and expanded the battleground map deeper into conservative territory.

But Mississippi?

Even the most optimistic Democrats scoffed at the idea of a competitive race in the ruby-red state going into this campaign cycle. But voters’ anxiety about the economy has deepened, their opinions of President Donald Trump have tanked, and appeals for help from Mississippi Democrats have elevated the idea that Democrat Scott Colom has a chance to oust GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in November.

Now high-profile Democrats are paying visits to the Republican bastion and urging party bosses to send scarce financial resources to Colom’s campaign, hoping to put into play a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in more than four decades.

“I think he’s got a real shot,” said Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, an early supporter who flipped a red seat in Georgia in 2020. “We should spend more money there.”

Although Mississippi remains a heavily Republican state, Colom has run a surprisingly competitive campaign. The local district attorney has gotten endorsements from other prominent Democrats such as former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, who’s scheduled to campaign with Colom on Friday in Mississippi.

Hyde-Smith this week began airing ads attacking Colom, generally seen as a sign she’s taking the race seriously.

Democrats believe the senator has reason to worry. Some see Mississippi as the next Georgia, a sleeper purple state with a large African American population that — if engaged and motivated — can help make Democratic candidates competitive there.

Democrats also believe Hyde-Smith to be particularly vulnerable due to her support for Trump policies that have squeezed Americans, including cuts to Medicaid and SNAP food assistance, tariffs and the Iran war, which has spiked fuel and fertilizer costs for farmers in Mississippi and elsewhere around the country.

There are certainly obstacles. One is the question of turning out Black voters in Mississippi, who have faced historic discrimination and barriers to the ballot box. Republicans this year sought to redraw the state’s 2nd Congressional District to eliminate the state’s only majority-Black district and unseat longtime Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson. The Supreme Court foiled that effort this month, and Democrats believe it will backfire to the benefit of Colom’s campaign.

“If that increases Mississippi’s Black voter turnout significantly, and if he’s only just a few points back, boom — you’ve now closed the gap, and you’re in the game,” Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-Rhode Island) said.

Colom’s campaign has also put a spotlight on Hyde-Smith’s decision in 2023 to block Colom from receiving a lifetime appointment to a federal judgeship in Mississippi. Then-President Joe Biden nominated Colom to the post, but Hyde-Smith refused to approve the pick, which effectively killed his nomination.

Republicans think Democrats are dreaming. For now, the incumbent senator is overwhelmingly favored in the race. Trump won the state by 23 percentage points in 2024, and registered Republicans vastly outnumber Democrats there. Mississippi Republicans are also confident they’ll retain the seat even as the party plays defense in other red states, including Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska and Kansas.

“They always have a chance, but we’re going to win,” Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Mississippi) said of the Democratic odds on Wednesday.

While Democratic campaigns held a financial advantage over the summer, Republicans and their affiliated super PACs are now outspending Democratic Senate candidates all over the country. Democrats’ cash crunch is compounded by pressure to invest everywhere, including most recently in the battleground Texas Senate race.

In Mississippi, national Democrats and their affiliated super PACs haven’t yet committed resources, but they are signaling to donors to open their wallets. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-New York), who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, headlined an event for Colom in New York City earlier this month, a source familiar with the event told The Sun. The source also said that Gillibrand has maxed out her contributions to Colom’s campaign.

Colom argues Democrats are making a mistake by not investing in Mississippi since doing so now could also bolster their chances of flipping the seat in the future.

“We’ve not won in Mississippi because we’re not trying,” he told The Washington Sun in an interview. “You got 38% of the population African American voters, 90% who are Democrat. Got 15% at minimum, on average, white voters who are gonna vote Democrat. You only need to get 10[%] more of the white voters.”

“If you can’t compete in a state like that, you need to ask yourself, what’s wrong with you? Right? Like, what is wrong with your message? What is wrong with your strategy?’ he said.

“Look at the math,” he said. “The math is why it’s possible, and it’s just shameful that we haven’t been trying.”