Officials and experts fear President Donald Trump may soon restart a full-scale war in Iran as diplomatic efforts flail and Vice President JD Vance turns away his attention.
There’s been little progress in talks, and a tit-for-tat of strikes has resumed. Trump posted on Thursday that he did not need a deal with Iran — implying he is happy with a status quo with high chances of a spiral into conflict — and that Vance should focus on alleged corruption in the U.S.
“The less Vance is involved, the more likely return to war or at least [American] strikes becomes,” a U.S. official who was not authorized to speak to reporters told The Washington Sun.
The vice president has repeatedly attempted to engage Iranian officials. He’s also distanced himself from the war — after Republicans’ disastrous showing in the midterm elections, Vance said the public clearly was unhappy with it.
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But his lack of involvement is far from the only factor worrying insiders.
On Friday, Iran and the U.S. said Iranian drones targeted an American base in the Middle East for the first time in two months. Central Command, the U.S. military branch overseeing the region, said the drones targeting Bahrain were shot down. Tehran said the attack was in retaliation for an American strike, claiming it had destroyed a U.S. radar system.
“It is bad,” a regional diplomatic official told The Sun of the trajectory between the warring parties. The official said efforts are still being made to reach an accord addressing the disputed issues, but the risk of so-called “spoilers” disrupting the process is significant.
Qatar, the American ally mediating between Washington and Tehran, reportedly estimates it has a window of less than two weeks to cut a deal. There are still major disagreements between the two sides over Iran’s nuclear program, influence over crucial shipping routes in the region and alliances with fellow U.S. foes beyond its borders.
Speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive negotiations, the regional official identified two specific factors as endangering diplomacy. One is the hardline officials in Iran who deeply distrust the U.S. The other is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who encouraged Trump to launch the war and has long maintained no deal with Iran can be trusted.
A close adviser to Netanyahu, Israeli spy chief Roman Gofman, visited Washington on Friday for consultation amid the Israeli leader’s bid to restart attacks, Axios reported.
The White House and CENTCOM did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The State Department deferred to the White House.
In the talks, “some progress has been made, but not sufficient to bridge the gaps” between the American and Iranian positions, said Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group think tank.
Vaez said the sides might “confuse a mutual desire to avert another war with a common vision for ending the conflict.” Iran remains unwilling to make concessions on its nuclear development unilaterally while Trump is loath to provide sweeping relief from U.S. economic sanctions, he continued.
The president is “basically saying he’s not interested in a deal because he doesn’t think Iran will give him a face-saving way out,” Vaez said.
Meanwhile, instincts and players pushing Trump toward fresh military actions — likely in alignment with Israel — could gain steam.
Trump is still maintaining 50,000 American troops in the Middle East, after ordering the biggest U.S. military build-up there since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Members of the military community have told The Sun they are concerned about the effect of prolonged and risky deployments, and on Wednesday, MS NOW reported that the USS George H.W. Bush Carrier Strike group has been told its deployment is being extended for a second time.
For Netanyahu, who risks losing his position as Israeli opposition parties are moving to set up a new government, “it makes political sense… to act unilaterally and presume we back him up,” said Reid Smith, the vice president of foreign policy at Stand Together, an organization founded by the right-wing billionaire Charles Koch that advocates for a more restrained U.S. position in global affairs.
The Israeli prime minister has long argued Israelis should trust him as a uniquely qualified leader in the face of war or security threats.
Smith pointed to the narrative among Republicans and national security hawks following Trump’s midterm loss that the political problem was not the choice to launch the Iran war but to be insufficiently assertive.
“Trump is undoubtedly getting a lot of pressure to finish the job and secure his legacy before January,” when Democrats take control of Congress, Smith told The Sun. “Seems like the current equilibrium can’t hold indefinitely.”
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