Senate Republicans are laying the groundwork to quickly extend the federal debt ceiling through the end of President Donald Trump’s term should they lose control of Congress this November, aiming to prevent Democrats from weaponizing the issue to extract concessions in divided government.
The debt ceiling, which is set to be reached sometime around spring of 2027, has mostly been raised on a bipartisan basis, creating the opportunity for the minority party to extract concessions from the White House desperate to avoid an economic shock. But congressional Republicans raised the debt limit last year on a party-line vote, and are hoping to move to deprive Democrats of a potentially powerful bargaining chip next year.
The behind-the-scenes planning was described by multiple senators, two other sources with the knowledge of the matter, and G. William Hoagland, who served as a senior GOP aide to the Senate Budget Committee and is now at the Washington-based Bipartisan Policy Center. Some of the lawmakers spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations.
“If the chambers change in the midterms, there will be a real effort to deal with the debt limit before the end of the year,” Hoagland said, citing conversations he has had with “very high sources.”
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“They’d plan to move fast to take the debt limit off the table. They’re planning on doing this if they lose one of the chambers in the midterms.”
The Treasury Department is only legally authorized to borrow up to $41.1 trillion. Failure to lift it would lead the U.S. to an unprecedented default on its debt obligations, and likely trigger a calamity for the global economy.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (South Dakota) told reporters on Wednesday that he has spoken to Senate Budget Chair Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin) and said raising the debt limit would be among “potential options” for the lame-duck period between the midterms and the new Congress.
It is unclear if Senate Republicans would have the votes to lift the debt ceiling in a party-line vote. It’s also unclear if the Republican-led House would approve whatever emerges from the Senate.
Republican lawmakers have eyed measures to include in another budget reconciliation package, which can be passed with a simple majority. These include more funding for the military and aid to farmers hurt by skyrocketing energy costs as well as new anti-fraud proposals on federal health care spending. Thune said the debt ceiling is also under consideration.
“We’ve got to deal with that at some point. In the past, reconciliation, as recently as last summer, has been a vehicle,” Thune said. “But we don’t have anything to announce on that. … We’re continuing to track and see what is achievable.”
Many senior Democrats have publicly supported eliminating the debt limit and have strongly criticized prior attempts by Republican lawmakers to use it as a point of leverage for policy concessions. But Democrats would almost certainly vote against a lame-duck bill to increase it, especially if other GOP priorities are included.
One GOP senator, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that increasing the debt limit would likely be included in any package passed later this year, noting that the president supports eliminating the debt limit altogether. Sen. Mike Rounds (R-South Dakota) also said Wednesday that he expects raising the debt ceiling to be included as “part of one of the products someplace along the line.”
These plans may be difficult to get through the party’s narrow House and Senate majorities. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), policy chair of the House Freedom Caucus, told The Washington Sun that he would not support an increase in the debt limit “without real and substantial spending reductions.”
But Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a GOP policy adviser who served as the director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, said Senate Republicans should not let the debt ceiling go unaddressed until next year if Democrats win the House or Senate.
If Democrats assume power, they will put a “really high” price on lifting the debt limit, said Holtz-Eakin, who is currently the president of American Action Forum, a conservative think tank. “They can have it not happen under Trump’s watch. … You can reduce the price Trump might have to pay to get it done.”
In an interview, Johnson expressed support for raising the debt limit if paired with substantial spending cuts.
“If there’s enough deficit reduction, if we can really address the fraud,” Johnson said, arguing the party could target $250 billion a year in fraud. “If you have to do a deal with Democrats we’ll get nothing for it, just more spending.”
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