Kalshi has referred an investigation into trades made by former Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency tasked with regulating the popular prediction market, according to a source close to Kalshi.
The agency subsequently opened up its own investigation into Kinzinger in connection with bets he placed on whether he would receive a pardon from President Joe Biden — which he eventually did — according to Politico.
Kinzinger has not responded to several attempts by Kalshi to notify him about the investigation and ask for his cooperation, the source familiar with the investigation told The Washington Sun.
The investigation stems from trades the former congressman made in December 2024, the month before he received a presidential pardon, according to the source.
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Kinzinger previously called Kalshi a “corruption time bomb” and has been critical of the role prediction markets can play in affecting the behavior of members of Congress.
“This system essentially invites public officials, staff, donors, or anyone in the orbit of power to cash in on privileged information,” Kinzinger wrote in a November 2025 Substack post. “We already struggle with stock-trading scandals; this is an even cleaner, easier avenue for corruption.”
Representatives for Kinzinger did not immediately respond to a request for comment, but the former congressman confirmed in a statement to Politico that he made trades related to his pardon. He added that he did not have insider information about his potential pardon and believed he acted in what he thought was an acceptable manner under Kalshi’s rules at the time.
Kinzinger provided screenshots to Politico purporting to show that he made $823 on the trades.
The CFTC did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and Kalshi declined to comment on the matter.
Kinzinger isn’t the only former member of Congress to face an investigation tied to activity on the prediction market. Former New York Rep. George Santos, who was expelled from Congress in 2023, received Kalshi’s first lifetime ban in August in connection with trades he made on whether he would attend President Donald Trump’s 2026 state of the Union address.
Kinzinger faced Trump’s ire for his role on the House Select Committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. Biden preemptively pardoned Kinzinger, several other lawmakers and dozens of congressional aides in the final hours of his term on Jan. 20, 2025, after Trump said those involved with the investigation “should go to jail.”
The Illinois Republican retired from Congress after his term ended in 2023, following a round of redistricting that affected his chances at reelection.
While in Congress, Kinzinger was one of the only 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021. Since leaving office, he has continued to be openly critical of Trump and the direction of the Republican Party.
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