The Republican triage effort is underway.
Senate GOP leaders kick-started the decision to shift resources, all but conceding the North Carolina Senate race as they face the need to shore up other contested races as their majority comes under increasing threat.
Instead, party leaders are plowing funds into Kansas and South Carolina — two reliably red states where the battlefield has expanded amid President Donald Trump’s bottom-of-the-barrel approval ratings and rising costs that have put the party on the back foot.
Although Republicans are still leaning on a map that is largely on favorable ground, they concede that these latest moves are ominous.
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“You have conservative states with problems that can be fixed. Even in a bad environment, they’re solvable if you’re able to get the rural Republican base to show up. That’s pretty much where the cycle is at this point,” said one Republican operative involved in Senate races. “If you cannot get the base to show up, these states … are probably gone.”
This operative, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, said that “if the map were a bunch of battleground states, it would be a very, very bad night for Republicans.” Rattling off the handful of states the majority runs through, the GOP operative conceded, “[but] if you’re talking about South Carolina, then the majority is already gone, so you’re just then talking about the cushion.”
The Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC affiliated with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, reserved $35 million in North Carolina, but it’s pulling out of the state as former Gov. Roy Cooper holds a sizable advantage over Republican Michael Whatley.
Instead the PAC is dropping $14 million into Kansas to boost Sen. Roger Marshall and $5 million into South Carolina to aid Sen. Darline Graham, with the aim of shoring up the pair of incumbents.
In Kansas, Marshall has found himself in a real race against Democrat Adam Hamilton, with polls showing them in a margin-of-error battle despite the state’s deep-red hue. On top of SLF resources, the Club for Growth also plowed nearly a half-million dollars into the race to help Marshall.
Marshall has faced intense attacks over his state residency and his family beach house in Florida.
Those criticisms are also coming from fellow Republicans, who accuse him of taking the race for granted.
“He’s brought a lot of this on himself. This is how races are lost — not taking your campaign seriously,” the operative said. “Living in Florida? … People aren’t stupid.”
Marshall has tried to push back, telling The Washington Examiner that he and his wife recently sold their Florida home and that he’s in Kansas for up to 150 days a year when he’s not working in Washington.
The Power to the People PAC, a Democratic group, added $3 million into the Kansas race in recent days, upping its total investment to $6 million.
Ultimately, operatives believe the new GOP spending will stem Democratic momentum, much as it did in 2014 when former Sen. Pat Roberts warded off a last minute charge by Greg Orman. But it will be costly.
South Carolina has become a new sore spot. Annie Andrews, the Democratic candidate, has pulled even with Graham, according to multiple surveys.
The problems largely stem from Graham’s sudden emergence in the state. She was appointed to the seat after the death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, and then won a special election in a matter of weeks. Operatives were also quick to note that outside groups also spent to prop up the late Sen. Graham during the final weeks of the 2020 contest against Jaime Harrison, a well-funded challenger. Graham ultimately defeated Harrison by a double-digit margin.
The South Carolina race also garnered the attention of Trump, who derided the Democratic candidate as a “trannie” multiple times in a TruthSocial post. Andrews is not transgender.
“[Andrews] is not for South Carolina, and South Carolina must show, in the upcoming Election, that it is not for her,” Trump wrote.
Andrews sidestepped the barb, saying she will “work with anyone to put South Carolina first.”
SLF has also made buys in a handful of other states. The group dropped an additional $8 million into Maine to support Sen. Susan Collins, who’s in the midst of a grueling stretch of four debates over 10 days with Democrat Troy Jackson. Despite the rightward tilt of the map, the race has remained one of the preeminent toss-ups.
“It’s weird, for sure. And it doesn’t entirely make sense,” one Democratic operative who’s worked on Senate races said when asked about the Maine race amid the shifting map impacting other Republican incumbents. “Jackson is not a blank canvas, like early-days Platner was. He has a long governing record in the state, for better and worse, and he just seems to have not hit his stride as a statewide candidate.”
In addition, SLF plopped $4 million in Alaska, where Sen. Dan Sullivan is trying to survive a challenge from former Rep. Mary Peltola, and $2 million into Michigan to back former Rep. Mike Rogers against Abdul El-Sayed. The group has now spent $21 million and $53 million in the two states, respectively.
Thune’s Republican PAC also announced eight-figure spends in Iowa and Ohio last week, both of which are central to majority hopes on both sides of the aisle.
While Georgia could be next on the chopping block, there are reasons to keep spending there despite Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff holding a commanding lead over Republican Rep. Mike Collins — namely to boost Republican Rick Jackson in the governor’s race.
Jackson, who has spent heavily out of his own pocket, is in a margin-of-error battle with former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, the Democratic candidate. The prospect of him winning is a major incentive for groups to continue investing in the state.
“You can’t afford to [pull out] if you’re the Republican outside world. We have the luxury of more money, so we need to be spending in places like that,” a second Republican operative involved in Senate races said. “If we were dealing with the resources or the Democrats are, we’d have been out of Georgia a long time ago.”
Overall, Republican groups have reserved $35 million on the Ossoff-Collins race, including more than $14 million by SLF. The group is slated to spend another $10 million in the coming weeks.
Whether that money sticks remains a major question, especially as the party looks to patch up problem spots.
“You have to stay agile,” said a third Republican operative involved in Senate races. “These are decisions the outside groups don’t enjoy making, but when you’re defending this many races, every dollar counts.”
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