Bill Belichick once said you don’t know your team until the middle of October.
Well, here we are.
After six weeks, we’re starting to get a sense of who each team is and which teams have the best shot at winning it all this season. While there is still plenty of time for things to change before the end of the regular season, these five teams have established themselves as the league’s top Super Bowl contenders.
All stats per TruMedia unless noted otherwise.
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San Francisco 49ers (6-0 record)
Why they’re contenders: This is one of the most well-rounded teams in the league. The 49ers are first in offensive DVOA and third in defensive DVOA through six weeks, per FTN.
Offensively, coach Kyle Shanahan and quarterback Brock Purdy have the passing game buzzing. Purdy is third among quarterbacks in expected points added (EPA) per play and has been the league’s best quarterback at sack avoidance. That’s allowed him to find open receivers all over the field. His immediate chemistry with Mike Evans unlocked a new element for the San Francisco passing game, with a ball-dominant outside receiver who has drawn coverage away from the likes of tight end George Kittle and running back Christian McCaffrey.
The defense has been one of the best at limiting big plays with an opposing explosive play rate of 7.1%, which is second to only the Seahawks.
At 6-0, FTN’s DVOA-based playoff odds give the 49ers a 30.8% chance to win the Super Bowl.
Concern: The injuries keep piling up. The 49ers were already thin at wide receiver and then Evans left Monday night’s game with an Achilles injury that had been bothering him before the game. He’s expected to miss time. The Niners passed on placing pass rusher Nick Bosa on injured reserve earlier in the season because they were already running out of spots to designate for return.
Kansas City Chiefs (5-0)
Why they’re contenders: There’s finally a dynamic run element to complement quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the passing game. When Kenneth Walker III was signed in free agency, the hope was that he could add explosives in a run game that has been without juice for years. He’s exceeded all expectations.
Last season, the Chiefs had one run from a running back gain at least 20 yards. This year, they lead the league with seven through six weeks. Walker leads the league in rushing yards, but is also first in EPA per rush (0.15) and third in success rate (48.1%) among running backs with at least 50 carries.
Teams don’t need a successful run game to use play-action effectively, but being able to get under center has opened things up for the Kansas City passing game. Mahomes has a league-high 33.7% play-action rate, which would be a career high if it holds. He’s fourth in EPA per play this season.
Concern: With the loss of receiver Tyquan Thornton to an ankle injury, the Chiefs might not have the vertical element to threaten opposing defenses — a problem with the Kansas City passing offense for the past few years. With Thornton on the field, Mahomes averaged 9.2 yards per attempt, but that drops to 7.2 without him.
Buffalo Bills (5-1)
Why they’re contenders: The Buffalo offense is a machine, whether it’s Josh Allen doing Josh Allen things at quarterback or a run game that can be used to control the clock. Against the Raiders in Week 6, the Bills had 10 offensive drives and scored on 70% of them. That had been done only one other time this season … by the Bills in Week 5 against the Rams.
Buffalo is averaging 3.13 points per drive, the fourth-best mark for a team through Week 6 since 2020.
The Bills have leaned into heavier personnel with their 28.7% rate of 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends), second behind the Rams. The bigger bodies and wider fronts have helped open up running lanes for James Cook, who leads the league in yards before contact per rush at 2.47, over half a yard above the next-best running back.
Concern: The defense has struggled under new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard. Leonhard was expected to bring some more exotic looks and simulated pressures, but early in the season, he’s simplified some of his defense due to a lack of talent, especially in the secondary. The Bills are 32nd in points per drive allowed on defense.
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2)
Why they’re contenders: Things have clicked for Trevor Lawrence under coach Liam Coen. The quarterback has carried the success he had during the second half of last season into the start of this year. He ranks fifth among QBs in EPA per play and 10th in success rate. He’s targeting the intermediate middle of the field — the most valuable area by expected points — at a significantly higher rate than the rest of the league (17.9%, with the next-highest quarterback at 12.6%).
Parker Washington has emerged as a legitimate No.1 wide receiver, who ranks 14th at the position in yards per route run.
Concern: This is kind of a sloppy team. The Jaguars have four delay-of-game penalties, and could’ve had more if not for some burned timeouts. They also have 13 offensive holding penalties. Only the Chargers have lost more offensive EPA to penalties than the Jaguars this season.
Minnesota Vikings (5-0)
Why they’re contenders: The Vikings have the league’s best defense by DVOA on the back of the most aggressive front in the league. Minnesota has blitzed on 66.5% of opposing dropbacks this season, easily the most over a team’s first five games since 2019. The next-closest team was the 2023 Vikings at 55%.
But a big difference is how often this Minnesota team is creating pressure. The 2023 Vikings only had a 29.5% pressure rate, while this year’s version leads the league with a 44.9% pressure rate. It’s not just about the blitzes, either. The Vikings have the highest pressure rate with a four-man rush, at 56.4%.
When the Vikings have gotten pressure, they have allowed a league-low 2.1 yards per play.
Concern: The offense has yet to click. Quarterback Kyler Murray has played only three full games, and just one with star receiver Justin Jefferson, which was his best. The run game also hasn’t taken shape and the offense as a whole ranks 27th in DVOA.