Republican leaders are barreling towards a lame-duck period when they plan to fund the government, address the debt ceiling and push through a must-pass defense authorization bill — all while tempering the expectations of members who have their sights set on a reconciliation package many believe won’t materialize.
The party in power is staring down a lengthy must-do list and an even lengthier wish list, especially if they lose one or both chambers come Nov. 3. While the midterm results will determine the top priorities, members are already fretting about the looming issue of fitting 10 pounds into a 5-pound sack.
“I think our appetite’s definitely going to be bigger than what our stomach can hold on this one,” one senior Senate Republican aide, given anonymity to speak freely, told The Washington Sun.
“It’ll certainly depend to some extent what the chamber breakdowns are gonna be after January 3rd to see what kind of leverage each party has in these negotiations and maybe what’s punted to the next Congress,” the aide continued.
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Republicans have already passed two reconciliation bills. This summer they laid the groundwork for a third, focused primarily on defense spending. But the prospect of a divided government in 2027 has added a sense of urgency for Republicans looking to pass GOP priorities before the end of the year.
Members are socializing a long list of GOP priorities should Republicans lose the majority in the House. Among those being discussed are permitting reform, imposing new restrictions around children using social media, transportation reauthorization, renewing a surveillance program and approving more money for farmers and the Pentagon.
“We will do a reconciliation bill. One way or the other, we will,” Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno told reporters last week. “Regardless of how the election turns out, we have to do a reconciliation bill. Obviously, if we lose control of Congress, it’ll be the Last Supper,”
However, there is a split in the party whether that’s even achievable.
Senate Republicans were unable to get the ball rolling on a third reconciliation bill in the months leading up to the election because they did not have the votes to start the process. House Republicans narrowly approved an outline, but the process stalled. It is unclear whether that will change once the chambers reconvene after the midterm elections.
When asked about Moreno’s confidence about a third reconciliation package, Sen. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia, a member of leadership, cast doubt on that possibility.
“I’m not ready to make that prediction. That sounds like, ‘Oh! Hail Mary! We’re all going to freak out.’ I don’t see that,” Capito said about a “Last Supper” style bill if Republicans lose their majority.
Other complications in the lame-duck period are potential attendance issues from lawmakers exiting Washington and outgoing flame throwers with little to lose in their final days as sitting members.
“I don’t think it’s going to happen,” the senior GOP aide said about another party line bill. “I certainly get the argument for it. We could probably get our side to agree on a defense supplemental at this point, but I just don’t think we have the calendar time realistically to do that now.”
As the Environment and Public Works Committee chairwoman and an appropriator, Capito says she is still hopeful that bipartisan permitting reform legislation can move in the postelection work period on top of funding bills. Funding is set to expire on Dec. 11.
“There’s plenty of work to do. If you couple that with a massive … reconciliation package, that’s a big chunk. We’ll see what happens,” Capito said. “It may be the impetus to move us in that direction. I don’t know that the elections may be [that impetus]. For right now, we still have plenty of legislative work to do without going to a reconciliation bill.”
She cautioned: “Those things take a lot of time. We didn’t have the votes … for a reconciliation package earlier.”
Atop the to-do list is funding the government for fiscal 2027. There is broad support to pass as many appropriations bills as possible before the end of the year. But the expectation is that Congress will rely on a continuing resolution to fund the remaining agencies and programs until mid-March, dulling any suggestion of a year-long CR.
“I could see a shorter-term CR like that. I just don’t think we’ll do a year-long CR,” the aide said.
The possibility of losing one or both chambers is also expected to impact other fronts, including the debt limit.
Top Republicans have already indicated that they are open to raising the debt ceiling in a reconciliation package to take it off the table as a negotiating point for Democrats if they win one or both chambers. If it’s not handled in the lame duck, it would likely need to be raised in the first half of 2027 on a bipartisan basis.
However, multiple members are indicating the votes may not be there unless there are associated spending cuts to help pay for it.
Wyoming Sen. Cynthia Lummis, who is retiring, told Punchbowl News earlier in the month that it would be “really hard” to back another debt limit increase. Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, another retiree, labeled the debt fight as a “next year thing.” And House Freedom Caucus members are already signaling pay-fors are non-negotiable. “There will be no blank check,” Rep. Clay Higgins of Louisiana told The Sun.
When push comes to shove though, some said they do not have a choice.
Moreno said he believed the votes would be there on the Republican side. “Nobody wants to see a debt default. That would be 1929 on steroids.”
Another item on Senate Republicans’ checklist is confirming judges.
Installing Trump’s judicial nominees has been a top priority of Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley. The pressure to confirm more will only heighten if Democrats win control.
Republicans have confirmed 57 judges since Trump’s return to office, with enough nominees in the pipeline to keep the chamber churning through them through the end of the year. Adding to the urgency, Grassley is term limited as committee chair this year.
There are also a number of must-pass bills also on the docket. In addition to government funding, passing the annual National Defense Authorization Act is also top of mind. Multiple sources do not sense much consternation on that front.
Another bill leaders want to address is Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, a national security tool that expired in June, which sources believe could get attached to the NDAA. Members in both parties indicated in September that they still viewed reupping the key surveillance tool a priority, yet it has fallen through the cracks for months.
As lawmakers lobby leaders to move specific items one thing they all agree on is that the path won’t be clear until they know if they’ll still control both chambers of Congress.
Capito admits the sentiment about trying for one more package wrapping together several Republican priorities could shift. “Maybe with different results with the election, we might, but we don’t have the answer to that question.”
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