Don’t look now, but not only are Democrats on the cusp of a big midterm night, they’re on the verge of electing a bunch of moderate normies who can actually win in red states. The real question is: Will anyone in the Democratic Party notice — or care?
For months, it has been widely assumed that the Democrats’ progressive era is finally here. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders would certainly like you to think that’s the case. If Abdul El-Sayed wins in Michigan, he will become Exhibit A for this narrative.
But when the votes are counted on Tuesday, El-Sayed will almost surely underperform what a moderate Democrat would have yielded. Meanwhile, the many moderates running in red states — win or lose — are likely to overperform previous races.
To be sure, Trump’s disastrous policies put many of these red-state seats in play in the first place. But Democrats have capitalized on the opportunity by nominating candidates who are stylistically, temperamentally and philosophically acceptable to centrist and even conservative voters. This crop of Democrats has focused on local bread-and-butter concerns, while also parrying — or moderating on — culture war issues.
The best performer of 2026 has been Democrat Roy Cooper, an anodyne-seeming former North Carolina governor who is up by about 10 points in the polls. Cooper has been the presumed victor for so long now that he’s barely ever mentioned. “It’s like he’s our star athlete and no one’s paying any attention,” Neera Tanden, president of the liberal Center for American Progress, recently said.
But Cooper is hardly alone. Take Iowa Senate nominee Josh Turek. “I’m proudly a moderate,” Turek told Semafor recently. Rob Sand, the Democrat running for Iowa governor, has said that trans women shouldn’t play women’s sports and that Joe Biden “should have done a better job with border security.” Sand — who is an avid bow hunter — also publicly stated that he doesn’t want Joe Biden or Kamala Harris campaigning for him in Iowa.
Democrats have gone a long way toward shedding their reputation for being hostile to religion by nominating proudly Christian candidates in Kansas (Adam Hamilton, a pastor), Texas (James Talarico, a seminarian) and Mississippi (Scott Colom, recently described by E.J. Dionne Jr. in The New York Times as “a religious man who typically concludes conversations with ‘bless you’”). Meanwhile, Gina Hinojosa, the Democrat running for Texas governor, ends one of her ads by declaring, “My pronouns are Mom, Texan and soon to be: Governor.”
In Alaska, Mary Peltola has made “fish, family, and freedom” her focus, and the catchy slogan is authentic: She was a commercial fisherman and was endorsed by the NRA in 2024. Whether or not she is undone by allegations that her staff sleazily recruited a second Dan Sullivan into the race, it’s undeniable that her campaign has been both surprisingly competitive and decidedly centrist.
Having a deep and diverse bench of talented candidates bodes well for a political party’s future. Whereas Republicans remain wedded to Trump and Trumpism, Democrats have been free to forge their own bespoke brands — even as many of these identities and policy positions clash with the progressive dogma of powerful interest groups and donors who usually get their way.
The problem? Independence and ideological diversity work well for an out-party in a midterm. But in a presidential year, parties must choose a standard-bearer, which is tantamount to settling on a single national brand.
If Dems select a moderate presidential candidate in 2028, they can put states like Iowa, which Barack Obama won twice, back in play. In my estimation, Georgia’s Jon Ossoff or Kentucky’s Andy Beshear might fit the bill — as could some of the candidates who may be newly elected in 2026. If, however, Democrats choose a progressive or blue-state nominee — say, Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — they risk repeating the mistake Trump made in 2026, when he alienated Hispanic men and other voters he had just added to his 2024 coalition.
Next Tuesday is far from the end of this story. A civil war over the future direction of the party is coming, and it’s sure to get ugly. Democrats will be forced to choose which direction they want to go in 2028. Here’s hoping they choose wisely.
Matt K. Lewis is a Washington Sun Perspectives columnist.
To get the latest columns from Matt — a center-right voice who puts intellectual honesty above partisan hackery — sign up here.
More Perspectives:
Andy Beshear’s Radical Proposition for America: We Could Have a Nice President.
Rahm Emanuel Embodies His Party’s Past. Could He Also Be Its Future?
Dana Milbank: 54 Ways Trump Has Tried to Sabotage the Election