We are 70 days out from the midterm elections, and Democrats seem increasingly likely to have a great night. They appear to be on a path to winning back the House, and even the Senate now seems within reach.
And why shouldn’t Democrats triumph? Aside from the fact that a president’s party almost always loses the midterms, President Donald Trump has us embroiled in a hot war with Iran and a trade war with Canada. He hasn’t kept his promise to bring down prices, and his biggest successes are arguably his self-enrichment initiatives and various redecorating projects.
But let’s say things go according to plan for Democrats. Then what? The danger is that in the wake of a blue wave, Democrats will get high on their own supply and mistakenly conclude that their brand and policies are popular — exactly the type of self-delusion they need to avoid if they are to win back the presidency in 2028.
We’ve seen this show before. Reportedly egged on by historians, Joe Biden began his term believing he would be a transformational president in the mold of FDR or LBJ — never mind that Biden didn’t enjoy the huge majorities those Democrats had. He seemed to think voters had endorsed a broad mandate for his party, as opposed to simply having grown tired of Trump. This led him to a lot of early mistakes he couldn’t recover from.
Biden spent heavily, which likely exacerbated inflation, then dismissed inflation as “transitory.” He also blundered ahead arrogantly with his plan for Afghanistan, saying in July 2021, “The likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.”
Moreover, his administration insisted that the immigration crisis at the border was merely cyclical — even though, by early March 2021, The New York Times had documented thousands of kids crossing the border each week. “Their parents,” the Times explained, “were encouraged to send for them by President Biden’s more welcoming approach to immigration.”
Of course, Democrats ought to practice more humane and compassionate immigration enforcement than Trump. But as David Frum warned in 2019, “If Liberals Won’t Enforce Borders, Fascists Will.” Biden should have listened.
Layered over all of this was Biden’s self-delusion about his age and mental acuity. He simply failed to understand how, fairly or not, his advanced age would affect people’s perception of him.
Biden was elected to return things to normal. But by assuming he had a mandate to become a transformational leader — rather than a transitional one — he quickly began taking himself and his party down the road to ruin.
And yet, despite all of his early struggles, Democrats didn’t get wiped out in the 2022 midterms. They lost the House, but the margin wasn’t as big as expected, and they retained control of the Senate. Biden was able to claim a victory of sorts, and the Democrats deluded themselves into believing they didn’t need a course correction — in terms of policies or leadership — before 2024.
Will that dynamic — midterms success begets presidential calamity — repeat itself between 2026 and 2028? Across the country, Democrats have been nominating DSA and DSA-adjacent candidates. Many of these candidates may manage to win this year, but Democrats seem already to have forgotten what this type of politics can mean for the future.
Once Biden stepped aside in 2024, Kamala Harris was plagued by some of her own left-wing positions, taken during what Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York) recently described as the “crazy” days of “Woke 1.” Harris, for instance, was brutalized by that “Kamala is for they/them, President Trump is for you” ad. In the wake of Harris’ 2024 loss, a few Democrats decided it was time to get on the right side of public opinion. Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Massachusetts) was one of those voices. “I have two little girls,” he told The New York Times. “I don’t want them getting run over on a playing field by a male or formerly male athlete.”
Now, Moulton is running for Senate, and a few weeks ago, he issued an apology. It’s hard to blame him for responding to Democratic primary voters in his home state, but … so much for learning the lessons of 2024.
I’m not saying Democrats should simply adopt the hard line and harsh rhetoric of Republicans on trans issues. But their stance can’t be one that comes across as patently out-of-touch with the values of mainstream Americans. To put this in perspective, a Pew Research Center survey last year showed that 73% of Americans are “uncomfortable with transgender athletes competing on sports teams that do not match their sex at birth.”
But it isn’t just this topic. It’s flirting with socialism. It’s the DSA’s call to abolish the Senate, the Supreme Court and the presidency. It’s nominating a politician who refuses to say if killers should go to jail. It’s (coming close to) nominating a candidate who wanted to cancel Thanksgiving.
There are, in short, lots of reasons to suspect Democrats are living in a dream world — and are misreading the public’s turn against Trump as a dramatic turn to the left. Perhaps if Democrats lose in Michigan — where Abdul El-Sayed is being hounded by his association with controversial streamer Hasan Piker, who has suggested that America deserved 9/11 and that American Jews might be inviting violence — it could result in some soul-searching before 2028.
But the more likely scenario is also the familiar one: Democrats have a good year in 2026 and interpret this as a broad endorsement of their brand. That mistake set up disaster last time. It could easily happen again.
Matt K. Lewis is a NOTUS Perspectives columnist.
To get the latest columns from Matt — a center-right voice who puts intellectual honesty above partisan hackery — sign up here.
More from NOTUS Perspectives:
Forget Mar-a-Lago Face. The Real Symbol of Right-Wing Politics Is the Cinched Waist.
Why the R-Word Is the Defining Slur of the Trump Era
Reagan Worship Is So Yesterday. Republicans Need a New Hero — And It Should Be Teddy Roosevelt.