If you’re a Democrat, you’re probably uncorking champagne. Far be it for me to ruin a good time. But at the risk of sounding like Captain Buzzkill, I come bearing … well, not exactly bad news, but an argument for Democrats to temper their expectations as they gird for a tough fight ahead.
The truth is that the challenges facing Democrats are enormous. The party may be able to fulfill the clearly executable powers it will now have — Democrats can investigate Trump administration corruption and, with control of the Senate, block Supreme Court appointments — yet these powers do not speak to the fundamental reason that voters wanted a check on Trump: the affordability crisis.
Going forward, Democrats will share governing responsibility — and the blame if nothing gets done to alleviate this problem. Unfortunately, controlling inflation is notoriously difficult, and unwinding the most obvious drivers of the problem — Trump’s tariffs and his war in Iran — won’t be easy.
Moreover, just as Trump’s contrived efforts to prosecute and persecute his political enemies seemed dissonant to voters struggling to make ends meet, there is a danger that Democratic efforts to hold the president accountable will also come across as out of touch with a public that — let’s be honest — cares more about their pocketbooks than about justice. If Democrats try to impeach Trump for a third time, they will be flouting a key principle of human behavior: that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, while expecting a different result.
This brings us to the 2028 campaign — which (according to my calculations) will begin in approximately 15 minutes. Over the next few months, Democrats can expect a very large field to take shape, with candidates from various “lanes” vying to be in the top tier. The first phase of the campaign will likely be about claiming an electoral mandate from the midterms. Moderates (like Andy Beshear) will suggest tonight’s results demonstrate that red states are now in play — with a centrist presidential nominee, that is. Progressives (like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) will insist Democrats should go big or go home — that the key to winning is excitement and motivating the base to turn out. A massive Democratic sweep — in which both moderate and progressive Democrats triumph — could make it much tougher to resolve this debate.
It’s also worth revisiting a cautionary tale from the last time a large field of Democrats sought the presidency. In 2020, nearly every candidate (save Joe Biden) competed to see who could out-“woke” the others. Biden (who appeared to be gloriously oblivious to what was being said on Twitter) won in the end, but the baggage that came out of that nomination contest ultimately moved his administration to the left, and helped sink Kamala Harris’s presidential ambitions four years later. Today, the fundamental incentive structure of American politics has not changed: Primaries on both sides tend to drift toward the extremes, not the center. That could be a long-term disaster waiting to happen for Democrats.
But don’t let me fool you by talking about Democrats as if they are in complete control of their own destiny. Elective office is so often about responding, not dictating. And remember the elephant in the room — who will be doing plenty to keep Democrats off balance. It’s not like Trump is going to accept his new status and become bipartisan. As David Frum predicted about the post-midterms world in The Atlantic, “He can indict people, he can invade nations, he can invoke emergency powers. He will get angrier, noisier, and crazier. … The worst is yet to come.”
So by all means, if you’re a Democrat, enjoy your victory party. Have a drink. Or two. Celebrate this accomplishment. But remember that winning the midterms was always just the first step. Democrats made a lot of progress tonight, but they have a long road ahead if they hope to save themselves — and the country.
Matt K. Lewis is a Washington Sun Perspectives columnist.
To get the latest columns from Matt — a center-right voice who puts intellectual honesty above partisan hackery — sign up here.
More Perspectives:
Andy Beshear’s Radical Proposition for America: We Could Have a Nice President.
Rahm Emanuel Embodies His Party’s Past. Could He Also Be Its Future?