One Week

Today’s notice: The latest from the last week of the midterms. Plus: Out of the blue, we thought we’d look into political spending at The Cheesecake Factory. And: What more strikes on Iran would mean.

The Washington Sun has a new newsletter starting Nov. 9: Congressional reporters Igor Bobic and Oriana González are taking you inside the Capitol in The Stakeout. Sign up now.

THE MAP

Choose your own adventure, one week out: If Republicans keep control of the House after next week’s midterms, it would objectively be very surprising. Every major prognosticator pegs Democrats’ chances to take the House at around 90% or higher.

The Senate, however … No one can agree on anything other than Democrats have a possibility of success. “Nate” Silver Bulletin’s FLIPR says Dems have a 76% chance of winning, while The Economist puts their chances at 56%. (Other forecasters generally fall somewhere in the middle of those two.) The national fight is for the Senate, and it is down to the wire.

Mississippi: Presidential voter fraud bounty. Before he took the stage to shore up Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, who is in a shockingly competitive race, Donald Trump offered $1 million to anyone who can provide information that leads to “the arrest and conviction” of election fraudsters. The president posted the reward to Truth Social.

Texas: Does James Talarico have a problem? Some strategists and local lawmakers think Talarico is falling short with Black voters — criticism that hasplagued him since the primary — and that an enthusiasm gap could make the difference on whether he is able to beat Republican Ken Paxton, The Sun’s Kadia Goba, Daniella Diaz and Marissa Martinez report.

New York: Mike Lawler works the drive-thru. Emulating Trump in 2024, the Republican congressman from the state’s 17th District served customers at McDonald’s yesterday. Lawler used the stunt to talk up the legislative win he hopes propels him to reelection: “The extra SALT is in the bag,” he told customers as he handed them their orders.

Iowa: Josh Turek says he’s running Trump’s playbook. MAGA “accurately identified that the status quo was not working for the average person,” the Democratic Senate nominee told The Sun’s Elena Schneider at a campaign stop in Cedar Rapids yesterday. Turek suggested his closing argument comes down to understanding why voters chose Trump and channeling their frustrations over prices: “Everything that he has done has driven it the opposite direction.”

Ohio: Jim Jordan sidesteps Vivek’s ad. The congressman and potential GOP conference leadership candidate didn’t join other Ohio Republicans in condemning the visceral ad from the party’s gubernatorial nominee. “I think this is the Democrats wanting to deflect from Amy Acton’s record,” Jordan told The Sun’s Reese Gorman at a campaign stop in South Carolina yesterday. “Remember, she’s been called the Fauci of Ohio.”

South Carolina: Paging Ralph Norman. Reese also talked to Republican Rep. Russell Fry of the 7th Congressional District out on the trail for Sen. Darline Graham. Fry called out Norman, who has said he won’t campaign for Graham. Both men ran against Graham in the primary. “He didn’t win. I didn’t win, either,” Fry told Reese. “I hope that he does, in the final eight days, step into the, you know, step into the sunlight a little bit and help his Republican nominee.”

Wisconsin: Kamala Harris is back on the trail. The former vice president hit Milwaukee to deliver a nine-minute speech to an excited but half-full room at a women-focused event to boost the gubernatorial ambitions of Democratic nominee David Crowley. The Sun’s Jasmine Wright was there. Trump was on everyone’s mind. “You warned us,” one attendee shouted to Harris.

Kansas: Exclusive polling hypes Democrats’ chances. The Senate race is where the attention is, but new internal polling shared with The Sun shows there may be more to watch in the state. A survey conducted for the Democratic Attorneys General Association finds Democratic AG nominee Chris Mann leading Republican incumbent Kris Kobach, 48-44.

Minnesota: The same polling shows Democrats’ challenges. The DAGA polling found incumbent Democratic AG Keith Ellison tied with Republican nominee Ron Schutz, 48-48. The pollster says “remaining soft supporters and undecided voters tilt heavily Democratic by self-identification.” It’s another sign that Democrats are seeing tough sledding in this blue state. Read the entire DAGA memo, which includes fresh numbers from across the country.

North Carolina: Air war resumes. Republican Senate nominee Michael Whatley went back on the air yesterday after pulling his ads a couple weeks ago when national money fled the race amid sinking poll numbers. Democrat Roy Cooper’s campaign announced a new buy, too — a seven-figure purchase that’s larger than the amount of money Whatley’s campaign has on hand, The Sun’s Chase Pellegrini de Paur notes.

More: Super PACs Are Supposed to Be Transparent. They’re Still Awash in ‘Dark Money.’ • As the Number of Days Until the Election Falls, Trump’s Numbers Keep Growing • Appeals Court Rejects Trump Emergency Appeal Over California Ballots • Trump Admin Asks Washington State to Set Aside Ballots From 400 Voters

FROM THE CHEESECAKE FACTORY

Meet the pols who spent the most money on events at The Cheesecake Factory since 2015, per FEC reports scrutinized by The Sun’s Dave Levinthal. First is the RNC, with around $7,800. Then comes Sen. Tim Scott (R-South Carolina), who racked up $4,900 there between his Senate campaigns and failed presidential bid. Top Democrats include EMILYs List at around $1,100 and Reps. Wesley Bell (D-Missouri) and Ted Lieu (D-California) at less than $1,000. The campaign of Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pennsylvania) spent around $358. Trump’s campaign spent a whopping $132.38 there; Joe Biden’s campaign, nada.

These figures, from Republicans anyway, might shoot up soon thanks to the ongoing fixation with The Cheesecake Factory since Barack Obama namechecked it while insulting Trump’s taste in White House gilding the other night. The Sun’s Manuela Silva and Andrew Van Dam look at the rhetoric and the facts around this fancy mall eatery. Home values in ZIP codes within 3 miles of a Cheesecake Factory are about 27% higher than comparable areas without one, they write.

NEW ON THE WASHINGTON SUN

What more U.S. strikes on Iran would mean: Former U.S. officials and experts question whether another round of strikes like the president is reportedly considering could deliver the Trump administration’s elusive strategic victory in Iran, The Sun’s Joe Gould reports. “I fail to see how the United States and Israel are three or four days of strikes away from what would be a strategic-level change,” former Pentagon official Jason Campbell told Joe.

More: Justice Department Charges Comey for a Third Time • In Scathing Ruling, Judge Extends Ban on Tree Cutting at Trump’s Golf Project

NOT US

• Eleven Hours of Trump: What We Saw on the Ground at Seven Rallies in Seven Days, by Philip Wegmann, Natalie Andrews and Alex Leary for The Wall Street Journal
• In Maine, an ‘Oyster Thug’s’ Struggle to Get Over Graham Platner, by Elizabeth Williamson for The New York Times
• Brazil voted to re-elect Lula. Trump’s allies aren’t happy. By Megan Messerly, Daniel Desrochers, Ari Hawkins and Phelim Kine for Politico

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The newsletter was produced by Thomas Burr and Andrew Burton.