Today’s notice: Learning lessons from Michigan to use in Wisconsin. New polls in Maine and Iowa. Comer plans to wrap up Epstein investigations while Democrats plot more. And: Inside the weird politics of data centers.
THE LATEST
Democrats get ready to do it again. Another progressive candidate, this time in Wisconsin, is running circles around the party establishment and scaring leaders about a key race in a key state. DSA member and state lawmaker Francesca Hong seems set to walk away with the nomination in next week’s gubernatorial primary.
But now, for some odd, out-of-the-blue, strange reason, there are some questions about the polls. “It’ll probably be closer than people think based on the results in Michigan,” a Democratic strategist told NOTUS’ Christa Dutton. Campaign officials for Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, the candidate the establishment wants to win the primary, popped a memo yesterday saying they, too, think the polls are wrong.
Trending
Once again, the Democratic establishment has assembled to back one of several candidates running in a primary: Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers has been campaigning hard with Crowley, whom he urged to get back in after he dropped out earlier in the cycle.
Is that really the lesson Michigan taught? NOTUS’ Manuela Silva spoke to Democratic senators about what they took away from Michigan’s Senate primary when it comes to deciding whom to endorse. Sometimes it’s easy, said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Connecticut), who offered the example of a candidate like Roy Cooper in North Carolina.
“There are other places where the fight is pretty even, and in those situations, I would prefer that leadership just let it play out,” Murphy told Manuela.
Some places are getting a little messy. Take Montana, for example, as NOTUS’ Raymond Fernández explores, where the establishment is backing an independent over the Democratic nominee.
Some senators noted that the tools the establishment throws at races — i.e. the millions spent attacking Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan in her Senate bid — are clearly not working anymore. “Voters are just tuning that bullshit out,” retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minnesota) said of the cash flowing against Flanagan.
What about any lessons for the left next week? One of that side of the party’s kingmakers seemed to suggest people should not pay too much attention to Wisconsin. “To be honest with you, I met Francesca a couple of years ago,” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) told reporters. “I haven’t talked to her since. It’s not the race that we’re involved in.”
“We’re very much involved in Peggy Flanagan’s race in Minnesota,” he added. “I hope that Peggy Flanagan wins.”
Open tabs: Max Miller resists pressure to drop reelection bid (AP); Darline Graham Takes Over Lindsey Graham’s Leadership PAC (NOTUS); After Michigan Loss, AIPAC Weighs a Second Effort to Defeat El-Sayed (NYT); Inside the GOP hemp wars (Axios)
From the campaign trail
First on NOTUS: Two new PAC-funded battleground polls. Polling as a, well, concept took a hit in Michigan on Tuesday night, but that doesn’t mean political strategists aren’t still spending a ton of money on surveys to inform their spending plans and other campaign maneuvers. In that spirit, we offer an exclusive look at two polls from groups with pockets deep enough to buy the expensive ones.
Maine: Democrats weathered the primary storm? New numbers from Senate Majority PAC (the spending arm of Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer) shows freshly minted Democratic nominee Troy Jackson with a slight lead over Sen. Susan Collins, the longtime Republican incumbent. NOTUS’ Christa Dutton got the SMP memo, which found Jackson up 49% to 45% over Collins, with 6% undecided. The memo also details why Collins may be more vulnerable this year than the last time she ran, in 2020.
Iowa: Democrats see momentum in the 2nd Congressional District. House Majority PAC (the spending arm of House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries) is trying to win the seat being vacated by Rep. Ashley Hinson after she became the Republican nominee for Senate. Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris in the district by 10 percentage points. A new HMP poll found Democratic nominee Lindsay James with 46% to Republican Joe Mitchell’s 45%. The survey gave credence to the idea that Trump is a drag on Republican candidates even in Republican places — Trump’s favorability rating is underwater in the poll, 44% fave/53% unfave.
From the Hill
The state of House Oversight’s Epstein investigation will be largely determined by the voters in November, NOTUS’ Stephen Neukam reports. The committee’s chair, Rep. James Comer (R-Kentucky), says it’s time to wrap things up, produce a report and ask the DOJ to consider criminal prosecutions. Democrats on the committee, led by Rep. Robert Garcia of California, say there’s much more to do and want to keep the investigation going if they get the majority. “There’s no question that the investigation will continue into the next couple of years,” Garcia told NOTUS.
From the White House
Trump in Las Vegas: “The polls say we do better against the communists. So he won, and so I think I’m happy.”
Trump also in Las Vegas: “When I watch Abdul, he’s full of shit.”
More from NOTUS’ Ben T.N. Mause.
NOTUS PERSPECTIVES
After Abdul El-Sayed’s primary win, Republicans’ rhetoric got real ugly, real fast. Leading the charge was Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who yesterday held a hearing titled “Hidden in Plain Sight: Confronting the Muslim Brotherhood Network in America.” None of Cruz’s colleagues showed up — but Dana Milbank was there.
NOTUS METRO
Local news: Talk to Tom: Restaurant Recs for D.C., Maryland ... and Germany! By Tom Sietsema
Sports desk: Commanders to Sign Stefon Diggs, Shoring Up a Shaky Receivers Room, by Martenzie Johnson
NEW ON NOTUS
Data center politics continue being just so weird. The ongoing division among Democrats over data center construction — moratorium-ers vs. regulation-ers, basically — is getting more complicated, NOTUS’ Jeff Stein reports. Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Oregon) today will propose a new excise tax and the elimination of tax breaks for data center construction. His plan is not to stop the construction of new centers but rather to ensure there’s some public benefit from them, if only just in tax revenue. That’s part of a growing list of policy ideas Democrats are kicking around to address the electorate’s AI skepticism.
Things are weird in MAGA politics, too. In a deep dive, NOTUS’ Mara Hoplamazian reports that the first year of Trump’s effort to accelerate data center infrastructure by clearing away regulatory and permitting hurdles — a promise kept to the tech titans who supported his candidacy — has not actually boosted data center construction. But it has helped spread the data center backlash to red places, often over the same issues his administration is trying to ease oversight around: water quality, air quality and the speed at which centers are built.
More: Republicans Roll the Dice on Their Farm Bill, by Tyler Spence
Congress’ Watchdog Is Still Struggling to Get Answers on DOGE, by Natalie Alms
Max Miller’s Corporate Backers Go Silent on Embattled Congressman, by Dave Levinthal
NOT US
- Mullin’s immigration balancing act grows more precarious, by Myah Ward and Eric Bazail-Eimil for Politico
- C.I.A. Sets Up Secret Cuba Task Force as Trump Pressures Havana, by Adam Entous for The New York Times
- Our Fauci Diaries, Ourselves, by Molly Fischer for The New Yorker
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The newsletter was produced by Thomas Burr, Brett Bachman and Andrew Burton. Photo by Nam Y. Huh/AP.
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