Known Knowns and the Rest

Today’s notice: Searching for reliable war updates. NOTUS brings a pair of lawmakers together. Democrats face scared voters at town halls. The story of a landmark antifa terrorism case. And: “Bipartisan? Up here? There’s no bipartisan up here.”

Log on: NOTUS Editor-in-Chief Tim Grieve is doing an AMA over at r/journalism from 2-3 p.m. ET today. Follow along at u/notusreports.

THE LATEST

Fog of (a social media) war? In an age where X is filled with unverifiable information, AI slop is becoming harder to identify, Iranians don’t have access to reliable internet and Trump administration officials regularly shift their narratives and objectives — how can Americans truly know if Donald Trump is winning his war?

“Right now, it’s very hard to know what is certain,” said Carlton Haelig, a defense fellow at the Center for a New American Security. “There’s a lot of obfuscation going on, both from the Iranians but also for operational security reasons from the United States and Israel.”

CENTCOM has perhaps been the prevailing source of information, not just for providing tactical updates and announcing service members’ deaths, but because it also acts as an account to fact-check Iranian disinformation.

“What they’re doing is presenting numbers of targets, numbers of munitions, kinds of munitions, kinds of capabilities that the American military has brought to bear,” Dana Stroul, research director for The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Emily. “They’re not reporting on the challenges in the campaign.”

Independent reporting from journalists has filled in missing gaps, like the suspicions of mining in the Strait of Hormuz or identifying the U.S. as the likely culprit behind the bombing of an Iranian girls’ school. But for the most part, Americans are counting on the military and the White House for the facts of this war.

“There’s a credibility factor there,” said a former Biden administration official, who noted to Jasmine that because there are no boots on the ground, there’s a lack of first-person reporting. As a result, Americans mostly have to rely on U.S. and Israeli intelligence.

Could the ongoing confusion fuel the tough politics for war supporters? Nearly two-thirds of those surveyed in a recent Quinnipiac poll said the Trump administration hasn’t provided a clear explanation for going to war, and more than half said they don’t support the war.

“Perceptions and narratives about what happened can tilt public opinion so much more sometimes than what’s actually happening on the ground, and because it is very hard to understand what’s happening on the ground, the information environment is like an extra domain of this war,” Stroul said.

Even Congress is dealing with this new reality. Historically, both parties have generally agreed on the trustworthiness of information provided by U.S. intelligence agencies. But as NOTUS’ Helen Huiskes reports, partisan sparring over intelligence has become commonplace.

“Bipartisan? Up here? There’s no bipartisan up here,” Sen. Rick Scott told Helen.

Open tabs: Leaked Documents Show a Border Patrol Remade in the Image of Greg Bovino (American Prospect); How Trump Turned a Republican Battle Over a Texas Senate Seat Into Leverage (NYT); AI Lobbyists Are Flying Congressional Staffers Around the Country on Luxury Trips (Sludge); A US Navy oiler ran hard aground after its captain urged a last-minute shortcut (Business Insider)

From the Hill

NOTUS, bringing lawmakers together: Yesterday, NOTUS’ Oriana González and Raymond Fernández reported on the coming House trouble for the Senate version of the bipartisan housing bill. Among the many bones of contention: Sources said Sen. Tim Scott, a Republican sponsor of the bill, had not been returning phone calls from Rep. French Hill, who represents House members upset by some provisions the Senate stripped from the House bill.

After our story was published, a source familiar with the matter said Hill and Scott would be speaking ASAP.

From the campaign trail

Voters’ election-integrity anxiety is real, but not the kind that the White House mentions regularly, NOTUS’ Christa Dutton reports. She watched a number of congressional town halls across the country and found Democratic lawmakers inundated with questions from fearful voters worried Trump will interfere with the electoral process.

She also talked to the lawmakers fielding those questions. “Pretty much any time I am interacting with constituents, especially crowds of folks back home, it is one of the top five questions I get asked,” Rep. Melanie Stansbury of New Mexico said.

Trump unloads on Thomas Massie: The president stopped in Kentucky yesterday to talk affordability, but made sure the crowd knew what he thought of one of the state’s Republican House members. “Massie is a complete and total disaster as a congressman and, frankly, as a human being,” the president said. Needless to say, Massie was not in attendance. But Ed Gallrein, the candidate enjoying huge financial support from Trump’s allies in a primary against Massie, absolutely was.

From the courts

Testing the domestic terrorism designation: NOTUS’ Jose Pagliery reports from Fort Worth, Texas, where a federal jury trial reaching its end will test whether the Trump administration can brand self-identified anti-fascists as “terrorists.” Jose goes deep on the players, the arguments and the gunshots that started it all — and the potentially massive precedent at stake.

Politics is present here, too. The terrorism charges stemmed from a national-security presidential memorandum handed down after Charlie Kirk’s assassination. Left-wing activists fear the case is stacked against them — U.S. District Judge Mark Pittman was appointed by Trump, and Jose uncovered a recent meeting between Pittman and Trump 1.0 Attorney General William Barr while the trial was going on. Barr told Jose he was merely getting a tour of the courtroom and did not discuss the case.

Supporters of the administration’s case point out that some defendants have pleaded guilty on terrorism charges. They say they can prove this particular antifa-coded protest was actually part of a coordinated, anti-American ideology.

From the White House

That’s a lot of oil: We learned more last night about the largest-ever release of oil from the world’s combined reserves. The U.S. will release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the Energy Department said. The process “will take approximately 120 days.”

Correction: Yesterday’s newsletter misattributed a quote calling the second Republican budget reconciliation bill “dead as shit.” It was spoken by a senior House Republican aide.

NEW ON NOTUS

Checking in on Florida’s mass-deportation project: 14 local law enforcement departments, correctional agencies and governments told NOTUS’ Jackie Llanos they are awaiting promised reimbursements from the state to pay bonuses and overtime to personnel for training to act as immigration agents. Lawmakers created a big pot of money for this, but Jackie reports that a lot of it has yet to be disbursed.

More: ‘More Confusing by the Minute’: DHS Negotiations Are at a Standstill, by Avani Kalra

Deported DACA Recipient Seeks Return in Federal Court, by Jackie Llanos

NOT US

• Trump has one prescription for midterms. House Republicans have another, by Steven Sloan for The Associated Press
  
• RFK Jr.’s advisers had a plan to target covid shots. Then it fell apart. By Lena H. Sun and Rachel Roubein for The Washington Post
  
• Charlie Kirk’s Group Expands Into High Schools. G.O.P. States Are Helping. By Richard Fausset for The New York Times

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