Today’s notice: Millions are pouring in but what kind of campaign money matters? Road-tripping with Scalise. Truth telling from red-state Republicans. The down-ballot play. Inside SCOTUS’ Red Mass. And: Officials are still bracing for some Election Day turbulence.
THE LATEST
Welcome to Sprint Week. As the general election hits its most fevered pitch for the next month, we’re going to explore the outstanding questions that will define the next few weeks and that won’t be answered until the votes are counted, canvassed and possibly litigated. First up: Will Republican money change the story of this election?
“We do see this level of spending actually moving numbers in our races and our internal polling,” one national GOP strategist told The Washington Sun’s Manuela Silva last week. The Republican midterm moneybomb is basically unchecked all over the map: Senate Democrats recently added $2 million in Texas spending after their Republican counterparts dropped $130 million. And that number is just part of the GOP money flow in Texas.
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“We have put together an operation that’s forced Republicans to spend $220 million in what should be one of their strongholds,” Texas Democratic Party Chair Kendall Scudder told us. “So Texas Democrats are putting up a real fight here, Republicans know it, that’s why they’re spending money.”
In theory, the spending disparity can do a lot. The national GOP strategist Manuela spoke to said that money does not just buy TV ads — it can fund organizing and GOTV operations, the high-cost programs aimed at pulling out the low-propensity voters motivated by support for Donald Trump who Republicans have told us all year are key to their strategy.
But, the money flow can send signals, too. National Democratic-allied groups told The Sun earlier this year they were finding it very difficult to to fundraise — leadership faceplants inside party orgs like the DNC and the divisive primaries have made giving to “the Democrats” unappealing. But giving to specific Democrats is a different story.
“Our candidates are outraising their Republicans hand-over-fist,” a Democratic strategist familiar with House races told Manuela. On Friday, the Democrats’ House campaign arm touted huge fundraising hauls from several of their battleground candidates.
The candidate-level disparity has also been true in Senate races at times this year — Democratic candidates are raising more than their opponents, while Republicans have more outside money helping them than Democratic candidates do. This month could see that story change though — one super PAC backing Democratic Senate candidates said in a recent memo they expect to continue being outspent by Republicans, but also that they expect the amount they’re outspent by to shrink significantly in October — maybe even reaching parity in some places.
In sum, the money question is a little more complicated than who can buy the most ads. Republicans have proven very capable of raising big money to help the GOP broadly. While Democrats have seen their candidates excite donors on a race-by-race level. Which money is the more important money? We won’t know until this election is over with.
More: U.S. Monitoring Reports of Russian Lab Worker’s Suspected Plague Death • Trump Launches ‘Super Intelligence Force’ to Lead AI Coordination • U.S. Redeploys Bombers From British Base Targeted by Suspected Terrorists • Sen. Kennedy Teases Potential 2028 Presidential Run
Open tabs:
- Trump’s opponents are planning efforts to reverse his changes to presidency (WaPo)
- Kristi Noem’s Agency Gave Her Donor a Lucrative Contract Just Before She Left (NYT)
- Sam Altman: ‘The world should accept some bad things happening’ for the benefits of AI (Politico)
- Poll: Latino voters swing away from Trump and Republicans (NBC)
FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL
On the road with Steve Scalise. “We’ve been in, I think, 34 districts just during August recess, way more than that during this period, and that’s what it’s going to take,” the House majority leader told The Sun’s Reese Gorman. “You got to leave it all out on the field.”
Reese tagged along with Scalise in stops in New Hampshire and New York, describing a pro in his element. Scalise told him the final push is about contrast with Democrats (“They’re defending socialism right now”) and painting a rosy picture of the political moment: “If you look at something like gas prices, which were coming down before Iran, and when Iran is resolved, number one, Iran won’t have a nuclear weapon which is good for all of us. But also, gas prices will come down even lower,” he said.
Red state GOP senators are increasingly saying something very different, The Sun’s Avani Kalra reports. We screwed up is the take from Republicans in safe red states or not on the ballot right now. Republicans, not just the president, have made missteps while speaking with Americans about the economy, Sen. Jim Justice (R-West Virginia) said.
“I’m not going to tell the voters, ‘Oh, it’s President Biden’s fault, and it’s not that bad, you shouldn’t believe your checkbooks,’” said Sen. John Kennedy (R-Louisiana). He added: “I also tell them the truth: The main reason for the resurgence in inflation is the Iran War. I think they appreciate the truth, but they’re angry.”
The Senate GOP’s gubernatorial bailout? One of the reasons Republican-allied outside groups continue to spend on the race for Senate in Georgia despite the polls is Rick Jackson, the Republican gubernatorial nominee who appears to have closed his polling gap with Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms, The Sun’s Al Weaver reports. “They’re all tied together, and the turnout operations, for sure, are linked in many cases because governors a lot of times have really good ground games,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told The Sun.
GOP Senate watchers consider wins by New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott in their respective races as a key factor in winning the Senate races in those states. Both sitting Republican governors are up in public polls (Ayotte is way up). One place where the connection goes the other way: Michigan, where Republicans worry that a poor showing by the party’s gubernatorial nominee, Rep. John James, could be a drag on Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers.
More: Ken Paxton’s Ex-Wife Says She’s Voting for Ken Paxton — Without Mentioning Ken Paxton
FROM ST. MATTHEW’S CATHEDRAL
A fire-engine red program with an image of John Carroll, the first Roman Catholic bishop in the United States, and clergy donning red vestments greeted worshipers at the 74th Red Mass yesterday — an annual service held ahead of the Supreme Court’s term to “beseech the blessings of the Holy Spirit” onto those in the legal field.
Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts, Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett and former Justice Anthony Kennedy sat in the front, with Vice President JD Vance, and second lady Usha Vance seated a few pews behind with their children in tow. “America the Beautiful” rang through the cathedral before the clergy processed out.
The now-blessed high court will hear oral arguments today in a case that could block one of the last remaining legal paths for holding fossil fuel companies responsible for damage from climate change, The Sun’s Mara Hoplamazian reports. The case, Suncor Energy v. Boulder County, will decide if federal law precludes lawsuits against companies in state courts for costs associated with climate disasters.
More: Alito Defends Justices Against a ‘Concerted Effort to Intimidate the Court’
NEW ON THE WASHINGTON SUN
Elections officials are still prepped for a bumpy ride, The Sun’s Adora Brown reports. Even after courts pushed back on Trump administration efforts to restrict mail-in voting, and top officials’ denials that there are plans to flood polling places with federal agents, Adora writes that blue state officials are still very wary. “In the event that something unusual or unexpected or alarming occurs, we have procedures in place to elevate that problem to our office,” Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows (D) told The Sun.
More: Trump Announces a Plan to Send $90 Checks to Millions of Medicare Recipients • Congressional Watchdog Finds the Federal Homelessness Council Is in Limbo
NOT US
- Superpowers Race to Put Nuclear Reactors on the Moon, by Selam Gebrekidan for The New York Times
- She died covering war for Fox News. Her parents blame the network — and a star reporter. By David Folkenflik for NPR
- Trump is putting a generation of young judges on the bench — for life, by Erica Orden for Politico
- Truckers Are Using Every Trick They Can to Survive Soaring Diesel Prices, by Rachel Wolfe for The Wall Street Journal
WEEK AHEAD
Today
Trump travels to Nebraska for a campaign rally.
JD Vance speaks at a rally in Alaska.
The Supreme Court begins a new term.
Abdul El-Sayed holds a campaign fundraiser in New York City.
Sen. Bernie Sanders campaigns for candidates in California.
Tuesday
Candidates for Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, Rep. Tom Barrett and William Lawrence, face off in a debate.
Maine Senate candidates Sen. Susan Collins and Troy Jackson face off in a debate.
Debates in gubernatorial races in Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan and South Carolina.
Wednesday
Iowa Senate candidates Rep. Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek face off in a debate.
Candidates for Colorado’s 8th Congressional District, Rep. Gabe Evans and Manny Rutinel, face off in a debate.
Candidates for Arizona’s 1st congressional district, Jay Feely and Amish Shah, face off in a debate.
Candidates for Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and John Braun, face off in a debate.
Barack Obama holds a fundraiser for the DSCC in D.C.
Thursday
Georgia Senate candidates Sen. Jon Ossoff and Mike Collins face off in a debate.
Michigan Senate candidates El-Sayed and Rogers face off in a debate.
Maine Senate candidates face off in another debate.
Court hearing over a preliminary injunction in the CNN, Politico, MS NOW lawsuit against the White House.
Friday
Nobel Peace Prize recipient announced.
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The newsletter was produced by Thomas Burr and Gaby Morera Di Núbila.
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