Senate Republicans are looking for some help come November in the form of key governor’s races that could make or break their hopes of retaining control of the upper chamber.
Even though most of the Senate contests are in friendly states to Republicans, the party’s incumbents and other candidates are swimming against the tide, with polls showing many of them trailing less than a month out.
Luckily for some of them, they could be buoyed by sitting governors who are also on the ballot and in pole position to nab another term.
“They’re all tied together, and the turnout operations, for sure, are linked in many cases because governors a lot of times have really good ground games,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota). “There’s always a connection.”
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Atop that list are New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who are considered key factors to potential Senate victories in the states.
Ayotte, a former Republican senator herself, is widely viewed as the preeminent reason that former Sen. John Sununu (R-New Hampshire) could score a return trip to Washington in his race against Rep. Chris Pappas (D-New Hampshire). A recent New York Times/Siena College poll recently showed her leading Democrat Cinde Warmington by 11 percentage points and topping 50 percent.
Pappas leads Sununu by 5percentage points in the same survey. Nevertheless, Republicans believe that the race represents one of their best opportunities to flip a seat, along with Michigan.
“Having a strong top of the ticket helps everybody on the ticket,” said Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Nebraska), a former two-term governor. He also rattled off a state from his tenure as chairman of the Republican Governor’s Association: If a sitting governor won, the Senate candidate did also 75 percent of the time. “Correlation, not causation.”
Abbott, the longest-serving governor currently in office, has won all three of his contests by double digits, and has shown an ability to help out a down-ballot senator in a tough race. Abbott won his first reelection in 2018 by 13 percentage points — helping to drag Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) across the finish line against former Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke.
This year may be different. Abbott only holds a low-to-mid single digit lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Even so, few Republicans believe he is in peril and argue that his ground operation and fundraising prowess will boost state Attorney General Ken Paxton in his senate bid. As of the end of June, Abbott had about $67 million in his cash on hand compared to only $3 million for Hinojosa.
“The governor’s race is critically important,” Cruz told The Washington Sun. “Greg Abbott’s going to be reelected. He’s done a terrific job as governor, and he’s raised a lot of money, which he’s going to deploy to turn voters out.”
“There’s no doubt Texas is competitive right now, and it is far too close for comfort,” he said, adding that he still believes Paxton will defeat Democrat James Talarico.
There are limits to Abbott’s reach. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) noted that on the physical ballot itself, the Senate race will be leading the ticket, with the respective House and the governor races following in sequential order.
There are other states where a governor candidate is hanging tough, but may not be able to pull the Republican Senate candidate along enough.
In Georgia’s governor’s race, Republican Rick Jackson is suddenly running neck and neck with former Democratic Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, having been buoyed by a significant financial advantage on the airways. However, Republican Rep. Mike Collins has struggled to make inroads against incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.
In some states, neither candidate seems likely to help the other: Republican Ohio Sen. Jon Husted and Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy face similar polling deficits.
A series of gubernatorial races in the Midwest may do Republicans little favor — and in some cases, serious harm.
In Michigan, Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson holds a commanding advantage in the governor’s race against Republican Rep. John James, one that Republicans are worried could affect former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers in his bid to topple Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in the Senate race.
“That’s a big problem,” said one Republican operative who’s worked on Senate races, requesting anonymity to discuss races. “How much are we going to lose the governor’s race by? How’s that math going to work out?
One Republican operative argued that James, who has already dropped two statewide contests in recent years, could afford to lose the race by roughly 7 or 8 percentage points and leave Rogers with a shot.
“Anything more, and it becomes damn near impossible to close that gap,” a second Republican operative said on a condition of anonymity to frankly discuss the state of play.
In Iowa, Democrat Rob Sand is leading Republican Zach Lahn in the governor’s race. However, Senate candidate and incumbent Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is considered to be in a stronger position than Rogers.
Hinson has shown signs of concern in recent weeks, including her call for President Donald Trump to end the war in Iran amid sky-high gas and diesel prices that have plagued the region.
Like Texas, Iowa lists Senate races at the top of the physical ballot. Republicans think Hinson could boost her fellow Republicans.
“Ashley is going to pull everybody up,” said Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), who Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek are seeking to replace. “I don’t know that the impact of the governor’s race will hurt Ashley at all.”
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