The blue wave was so big, it could drown progressive hopes of holding major sway in the House Democratic caucus.
Leading up to the elections on Tuesday, some high-profile progressive Democratic candidates had reportedly hoped that a small majority would grant them the ability to extract concessions from Democratic leaders — it’s what conservatives often did to House Speaker Mike Johnson. But House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries appeared headed for a majority large enough that he can ignore defections in the caucus, assuming he is speaker. Moderates are over the moon about it.
“That’s what I was hoping for,” one senior House Democrat texted to The Washington Sun. “It’s a big enough win with many people who won in districts that are going to be tough to hold onto, so the center is going to have a huge ‘block.’”
Johnson never knew peace in the House. With his narrow majorities of just a few votes or less over two years, any one or two Republicans could bring down any vote, dropping the GOP tally below the 218 generally needed to pass a measure. Democrats have won 237 seats so far, with 62 seats yet to be called. Jeffries told reporters Wednesday he expects to secure 255 seats, “if not more.”
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The dramatic increase is, in part, driven by moderate Democrats whose leaders now expect will be a pillar of the party in the next Congress.
The centrist group New Democrat Coalition is on track to represent a majority of the House Democratic Caucus, a spokesperson for the group told The Sun. The group endorsed 50 candidates and as of Wednesday at 5 p.m., 30 of those candidates had won. The number could increase to over 40 new members, putting the New Dems — a reliable base for Jeffries — at over 140 members.
Another centrist group, the Blue Dog Coalition, also saw its ranks grow on Tuesday, with 14 new members and counting, a person familiar told The Sun. The victories more than doubled the size of the caucus, bringing its membership to at least 22, with several additional races trending in its favor, the person said.
And they are ready to unite under the Democratic agenda as set by the speaker-in-waiting.
“New Dems have never ever had a discussion about demands from Hakeem Jeffries. Our discussion is how do we get him the maximum number of votes so we can lead this Congress and utilize his full breadth of talent,” Rep. Greg Stanton, chair of the group’s political arm, said in an interview Tuesday evening. “It was really a one-way discussion. The New Dems never participated in it.”
Stanton said that Democrats’ wins, both in the House and in the Senate showed that voters want candidates “that appeal to the broad spectrum, not a small portion of the political spectrum.” That is, to him, moderates.
Progressives argue the election results across the board stem from progressive ideas and that the message voters sent is unmistakable: They want bold change that left-leaning Democrats think can be advanced thanks to the new large majority.
“Even where the candidate wasn’t a self-described progressive, progressive ideas won big last night,” Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, told reporters Wednesday. His caucus is expected to exceed 100 members next year, spanning both the House and Senate.
Joseph Geevarghese, executive director of Our Revolution, which was founded by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, said in a press release that “the blue wave was powered by a progressive wave” and called progressives “the center of gravity in this party” who “intend to drive the agenda.”
One longtime Democratic strategist and former official at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said data does not support the argument that the left flank of the caucus has some sort of mandate.
“Saying that candidate X happens to believe these progressive policies and won, that’s not a cause and effect, right?,” the strategist said. They pointed to ads from progressive Democrats like Sam Forstag in Montana and Will Lawrence in Michigan, which focused on affordability, high gas prices and stopping data centers.
“They didn’t run on their bold progressive agenda; they ran a fairly prosaic, center-left economic argument,” the strategist added. “There’s no mandate for that.”
Regardless of whether people in the party establishment want to credit left-wing ideals for victory, progressive leaders said the caucus would all work together on an agenda for the greater good, based on the message sent by voters.
“Leader Jeffries has said this election is a mandate for bold change, and the Progressive Caucus is ready to be the energy behind delivering these results,” Casar said.
The way Washington Rep. Pramila Jayapal, former CPC chair, put it: “At the end of the day, I’ve always said that being a progressive just means you’re the first to the best and most just idea, and then everyone else runs to catch up with you.”
That is their hope, but a few determined liberals will not have the power to force “bold change” if the leaders don’t subscribe to the same vision. And that may be OK with the left, with progressive lawmakers saying privately they recognize the weight of incoming electeds from Trump-won districts.
“We make a lot of noise and people like our spice, but it’s about numbers,” one Democratic member told The Sun. “What they [moderates] were able to do was striking,” they said, especially pointing to Southern-state winners. “There is going to be a lot of negotiating throughout the caucus.”
Democratic lawmakers and consultants do not see internal divisions playing out the same way they did for House Republicans, such as when conservatives sank votes on the floor or forced multiple votes just to pick a speaker.
Rep. Brad Schneider, the current New Democrat Coalition chair, said in a press conference Wednesday that for years, leaders of Democratic caucuses, including the ideological ones, have met weekly to “talk about priorities, talk about what we’re hearing, what we’re working on, how we can work together. [Speaker Nancy] Pelosi called that ‘the crescendo meeting.’”
He contrasted the Democrats’ style with Republicans who “call their ideological caucuses, ‘the Five Families,’ and that is a reference to the Godfather and the fight between the caucuses,” Schneider said.
Ahead of the midterms, Jeffries convened five different working groups to address affordability issues around health care costs, housing, gas and grocery prices, utilities, and caregiving. Dealing with health care is one of the possible sticking points where Democrats could clash.
When asked during his press conference Wednesday if he would support a proposal on Medicare for All promoted by Jayapal, Jeffries pointed Reps. Terri Sewell (Alabama) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York), a moderate and a progressive, leading the working group on health care — a signal of how he expects the different factions to work together.
“We’ll be having conversations as a House Democratic Caucus family,” Jeffries told reporters.
One moderate House Democrat, who acknowledged that the large majority prevents a few members from derailing Democratic votes, told The Sun that Jeffries “listens to everyone. Everyone has a seat at the table.”
“We will work together and find the things that we can agree on and we’ll deal with the things that we disagree on,” the lawmaker said.
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