Moderate Republicans are becoming more rare in national politics. But they’re hanging on — and even thriving — in mostly blue New England.
Vermont Gov. Phil Scott is a prime example. A recent University of New Hampshire poll found that more than half of Vermonters approved of Scott’s performance as governor and want him to run for reelection next year. Even a majority of Democrats in the state approved of his handling of the job, despite them saying he was to their right politically.
So how is a Republican governor performing so well in a deep blue state?
Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist, said “Yankee Republicans” tend to thrive in New England because they are more focused on state politics instead of national politics.
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“Outside of Vermont, you’ve never heard of this guy,” he said of Scott. “He does not play to the prime-time cable news lightning rod, whether it’s the face of the resistance or, you know, MAGA acolyte, all he does is be the governor of Vermont.”
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Scott is not a MAGA acolyte — he said he voted for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris last election as a “vote against Donald Trump.” He criticized some of Trump’s actions, including his deployment of the National Guard in several cities. But he’s gone along with other Trump policies. In August, Scott was criticized by many Vermonters for sharing Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program recipients’ personal data with the federal government.
Vermont voters as a whole are 53% Democratic, 20.25% Republican and 26.75% unaffiliated. In 2024, 63% of Vermonters voted for Harris, giving her a 31 percentage-point lead over President Donald Trump.
Both of Vermont’s U.S. senators — Peter Welch and independent Bernie Sanders — caucus with the Democratic Party. Democrats hold the only U.S. House seat and 114 of 180 seats in the state Legislature. Scott won his 2024 election with 71% of the vote, giving him a 50 percentage-point lead against his Democratic opponent.
Scott hasn’t yet said whether he’ll run again.
“The governor is appreciative of Vermonters view of the job he’s doing and remains focused on doing what’s right for Vermont and Vermonters,” his office told NOTUS. “Since elected, providing Vermont with principled and responsible leadership has been his priority and will continue to be. He has not made a decision about running for re-election.”
Bartlett said the success of a Republican in New England is very dependent on the state they’re in and how in-tune they are with the state politics.
“It’s just the characteristics that make Republicans win are the characteristics that define each state to a tee,” he said. “You can have the traditional Republican mantra, but it has to also recognize whether it’s cross-voter, independent, or even that style of Republican. That is all distinct in each state, very distinct from the national MAGA brand.”
Other Republicans have had similar success in New England. Republican Kelly Ayotte was elected governor of New Hampshire in 2024 after serving in the Senate for two terms. Before Massachusetts’ Democratic Gov. Maura Healey took office, Republican Charlie Baker led the state for two terms. Before he moved to the right to run for president, Mitt Romney served as Massachusetts governor and enacted a health care reform law.
In Connecticut, former Republican Gov. Jodi Rell served from 2004 to 2011, and in Rhode Island, former Republican Gov. Don Carcieri served from 2003 to 2011. Since 2011, both states have elected Democratic governors.
And Maine has been represented in the Senate by Republican Susan Collins for over 27 years. Jim Melcher, a professor of political science at the University of Maine at Farmington, noted that while many of the moderate and moderate-leaning Republicans in Maine have become independent, Collins is “proof that there are still those kind of old-fashioned Republicans out there.”
“She has refused to change parties,” he said. “She’s voted in such a way to discourage a primary challenge. I think her vote for (U.S. Supreme Court Justice Brett) Kavanaugh was very critical in keeping potential challengers at bay, but it also was the thing that cost her a lot of support from independents and some Democrats.”
Melcher said that Republicans have faced some difficulty getting elected in New England, especially in Connecticut and Massachusetts.
He said Republicans are strongest in New Hampshire.
“They’ve got a Republican governor. They have had very competitive races for the Senate. They have commonly had legislative control. So, I would say that New Hampshire is the state that proves that the Republican party certainly is alive in New England.”
Melcher said that while moderate Republicans may be dwindling in states like Connecticut, they are still prominent in states like Vermont or New Hampshire, the latter of which is “socially relatively moderate, but they’re anti-tax — they’re conservative on that.”
“When people look at New England and say, ‘Oh, all the states were carried by Democrats,’ that wildly underestimates how many Republicans there still are in here,” Melcher said. “Donald Trump carried the 2nd Congressional District of Maine, and therefore its electoral votes all three times he’s run. So it’s not as though there aren’t any Republicans left in New England.”
Still, there are differences between how Republicans find success in New England compared to the rest of the country. Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center, said that moderate Republicans in New England don’t tend to focus on social issues. He pointed out that five of the six New England States are among the top 10 least religious in the country.
Instead, successful Republicans are “focused on basic issues of governance,” he said.
“Are the roads repaired? Are the taxes relatively low? Are the police doing their jobs? You know, just the basic things like that,” Smith continued. “They stay away from the social issues.”
Smith said the most interesting statistic that speaks to Scott’s performance in Vermont was the question on how residents view the governor on the political spectrum compared to their own beliefs.
“He’s in a nice position, because Republicans think that he’s to the left of them. Democrats think that he’s to the right of them, and in the middle, people think that he’s slightly more to the right of them, but not that much,” Smith said. “Frankly, it’s probably the only way he can win an election in a state like Vermont. And now that he’s done it four or five times, it makes it easier for him to win future elections.”
While moderate Republicans may be disappearing in some parts of the country, there is still a home for them in New England.
“Moderate Republicans are not a dying breed around here. I think moderate Republicans may be a dying breed in some of the areas where it’s very, very Trumpy, largely because it’s kind of hard to place Trump on an ideological scale — you’re either with Trump or against him,” Smith said. “Moderate Republicans still have a definite future in New England.”
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