Texas has an important Republican primary coming up, with Sen. John Cornyn expected to defend his seat against challengers to his right. No one is more excited than Texas Democrats.
“A primary challenge on the Republican side is always going to be an opportunity for Democrats,” said Luke Warford, founding partner of the Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund, a group in Texas that is trying to help build more Democratic infrastructure. “Because that means Republicans are going to be spending energy and resources fighting themselves and fighting each other instead of focused on trying to win in the general election.”
Democrats are especially excited given the chatter about who that primary challenge could come from: controversial attorney general Ken Paxton. The ally of President Donald Trump has yet to officially declare his candidacy, but it’s an open secret that he has considered it for years, and seemed to forget he hadn’t already done so in a recent interview with the New York Times. Recent polling from Texas Public Opinion Research showed Paxton leading Cornyn by a significant margin in a matchup.
Cornyn, a four-term senator, has built a reputation of bipartisanship that has angered the rightward flank of the party but also made him tougher to beat in a general election. During his last election in 2020, he secured more votes in the state than Trump did. More recently, Cornyn has made an effort to cozy up further to Trump.
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But now some operatives on both sides of the aisle say Cornyn’s time is up and a more MAGA contestant has a good chance to beat him. Texas Democrats are already scheming about a race against Paxton, who has a rap sheet of public controversy and alleged corruption following him, and was impeached by the Texas House with help from members of his own party.
“Nobody should beat around the bush here, that in a general election, you’d want to run against Paxton,” said longtime Democratic operative Matt Angle. “He is a corrupt public official who has been extreme in terms of his partisanship and his failure to do things that are good for Texas.”
Democrats said the attack ads would write themselves.
“I’d rather run against Paxton, for sure,” said Katherine Fischer, who worked on Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s campaign in 2018 and was his deputy campaign manager in 2022, and now works for Texas Majority PAC. “It’s not as obvious to voters that John Cornyn is bad. It’s more and more obvious with Ken Paxton.”
Democrats said Cornyn and Paxton would likely spend millions against each other, tearing each other apart and jeopardizing their viability in the general election.
“There are very fun times to be had,” said one Democratic operative, who requested anonymity to discuss private polling on the Cornyn/Paxton race, which the operative said showed Paxton may be more controversial but also more popular.
The operative said Paxton wouldn’t necessarily make for an easy win for Democrats. Paxton gives Democrats much more ammunition but also excites his base. He’s been closely tied to Trump and has the support of powerful donors in the state, as well as the conservative class of activists.
The operative said it could be better to run against Cornyn, who is potentially better liked by moderates but may not drive the same turnout.
“There’s always this phenomenon with John Cornyn that he doesn’t elicit these emotions because he’s always under the radar,” the operative said. “You have to think about who brings people out, who brings energy, who captures attention.”
The Texas Republican Party has said it will stay out of the primary. Paxton did not respond to a request for comment.
Asked about Democrats’ preference for Paxton, Cornyn said “he’s not a candidate” and declined to comment further.
Democrats in the state also said they’re looking forward to election season no matter what. In an off year, with an incumbent Republican president, Democrats are in a good position to make gains, even after a disappointing 2024 cycle.
“Donald Trump just announced the biggest middle-class tax hike in modern history – I wouldn’t want to be John Cornyn or Ken Paxton right now,” Texas Democratic Party Chairman Kendall Scudder said in a statement. “Whoever emerges from this Senate primary as the Texas GOP nominee is going to have a tough road ahead of them. Texans are going to hold them accountable every step of the way and I look forward to leading that charge.”
No other high-profile Republican has announced that they’ll run for the seat yet, but Rep. Wesley Hunt’s name has also been floated. Hunt helped campaign for Trump and an outside group recently announced a large ad buy for him that would boost his profile state-wide.
On the Democratic side, former Rep. Colin Allred is reportedly considering a run after his failed bid to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz last year.
“Come and take it, Colin,” Cornyn responded on X to the news.
“Good luck with your primary, John,” Allred responded.
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Casey Murray is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.
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