The new-look Washington Wizards open their season Wednesday against the Milwaukee Bucks, and the organization is looking to do something it hasn’t in recent years: win.
After years of tanking, the Wizards enter the season with the expectation that they will be competitive under coach Brian Keefe. Veterans Trae Young and Anthony Davis and No. 1 overall draft pick AJ Dybantsa (who is day-to-day with an ankle sprain and may miss the season opener) have been added to a young, inexperienced core, giving fans more reason for optimism than in the past several years.
But it’s no guarantee that the Wizards will be immediate players in a competitive Eastern Conference. Here’s how experts around the league are viewing Washington’s chances.
Around the League
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The Washington Sun reached out to multiple NBA front-office executives across the league to get their opinions on the Wizards. The executives were granted anonymity to speak candidly about the Wizards since they don’t have permission to talk publicly about other teams.
The consensus was that while the roster is clearly more talented, it’s unclear if that can translate to a winning record.
“They have to prove they can win,” one executive told The Sun. “Do the young guys know how to do that?”
Another executive compared them to another local team coming out of a rebuild in the Washington Nationals, who outplayed expectations in the first half of the season but elected to stick with their young core (and traded away some veterans for future assets at the trade deadline) instead of competing for a Wild Card berth.
“They could overachieve in the first half of the season and still be sellers at the deadline,” the executive said. “If they win 44 games but Trae Young and AD are the main reasons why and not the young guys, is that a good season? But if the young guys take a major step forward and they’re trading Davis and some veterans at the deadline to give AJ and co. the keys at the cost of making the Play-In, isn’t that better?”
A third executive was higher on the roster than most.
“I think they’re onto something,” the third executive said. “They have an abundance of elite wings and youth; you can’t get enough of either in today’s NBA. AJ is a franchise player, and they’re huge — enough size to protect Trae on defense, and all of their young guys have improved. The roster is a little weird, but there’s enough there to where it might just work.”
The third executive disagreed with the second’s assessment of the trade deadline, adding that if Washington has a shot at the postseason it should do everything it can to get there after years of irrelevance.
“They should want to make the Play-In Tournament,” the executive said. “That feels like a reasonable goal.”
The league’s annual GM survey also gave the Wizards some recognition. The team finished second to the Pacers for which team GMs think will be most improved, with 23% of the vote, while Dybantsa tied with Chicago’s Caleb Wilson for which rookie will be the best player in five years (both received 33% of the vote).
From the Media
The Wizards open the season in the bottom third of The Athletic’s power rankings and are projected to finish the season 11th in the Eastern Conference and miss the playoffs. While acknowledging an improvement in talent, The Athletic cites the potential lack of cohesion, shooting and playmaking outside of Young as factors that could derail the season.
ESPN ranks Washington an identical 22nd in its power rankings, while The Ringer views the Wizards’ prospects as much bleaker, placing them 28th in its power rankings. The outlet called the Wizards “a disgracefully impatient excuse for a basketball team” and questioned the decisions to add veterans such as Khris Middleton and Deandre Ayton to a young roster.
The Oddsmakers
The sportsbooks also don’t expect much from the Wizards this season. Both DraftKings and FanDuel have the Wizards’ odds of winning the NBA championship at 150-to-1 to open the season, while BetMGM has the Wizards’ over/under for wins at 34.5.
FanDuel has the Wizards’ odds of avoiding the Play-In Tournament and clinching the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference at 22-to-1 and their odds of clinching the eighth seed and final spot in the playoffs at 13-to-1.
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