Republican businessman Dave McCormick is projected to become the next senator from Pennsylvania after narrowly defeating incumbent Sen. Bob Casey, toppling a three-term political scion.
The Associated Press called the race Thursday afternoon, marking the first time that Casey — the son of a former governor and a fixture of Pennsylvania politics for nearly three decades — has lost a statewide race. Fewer than 31,000 votes separated the candidates at the time the race was called.
Casey has yet to concede the race, with his campaign saying the race was too close to call.
“As the Pennsylvania Secretary of State said this afternoon, there are tens of thousands of ballots across the Commonwealth still to count, which includes provisional ballots, military and overseas ballots, and mail ballots,” Maddy McDaniel, Casey’s campaign spokesperson said in a statement. “This race is within half a point and cannot be called while the votes of thousands of Pennsylvanians are still being counted. We will make sure every Pennsylvanian’s voice is heard.”
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National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Sen. Steve Daines congratulated McCormick’s victory.
“Dave built a best-in-class campaign operation, ended a political dynasty, and will now use his considerable skills to bring bold new leadership to the United States Senate on behalf of all Pennsylvanians,” Daines said in a statement. “I look forward to working with Dave to secure the border and bring down prices for the American people.”
A handful of Republican senators, including Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, John Thune and Rick Scott, had called on Casey to concede the election earlier in the day.
“The race in Pennsylvania is over,” Rubio wrote in a social media post. “I hope Senator Casey will accept this and concede to Dave McCormick so he can begin the important work of preparing to represent the commonwealth in the U.S. Senate.”
McCormick, an Army veteran and ex-hedge fund CEO, has never held elected office before, but he managed to capitalize on his status as the Donald Trump-endorsed outsider to eke out a lead in a state that narrowly delivered for President Joe Biden four years ago.
The Senate contest was one of the most expensive in the modern political era, with more than $400 million in advertising spent between the candidates ahead of Election Day — an enormous sum that reflected the race’s outsized importance to both parties’ efforts to elect a majority.
McCormick echoed many of Trump’s grievances, on issues ranging from inflation to immigration, throughout the race. He even went so far as to endorse military action within Mexico to stem the flow of fentanyl into the U.S.
Both McCormick and Casey touted their “pro-life” bona fides in prior campaigns, but both steered clear of similar rhetoric this cycle after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
In a 2022 GOP Senate primary debate, McCormick lauded the then-leaked draft opinion overturning Roe as a “huge step forward,” and he attacked his primary opponent for criticizing states that enacted anti-abortion legislation. This time around, McCormick removed anti-abortion language from his website and expressed his opposition to a federal ban.
Meanwhile, Casey characterized himself as an anti-abortion Democrat throughout his first two terms and his 2018 reelection campaign. (His father, former Governor Bob Casey Sr., was a leading voice in the anti-abortion faction of the Democratic Party.)
In this race, however, Casey put front and center his opposition to overturning Roe and the Republican efforts to enact legislation limiting abortion access.
On the trail, McCormick cast 2024 as the most important election of his lifetime and said a Democratic victory would mean “our country will go down a path where we will wake up one morning and not recognize the America we love,” echoing Trump’s often dire rhetoric.
The former president’s support for McCormick was never a foregone conclusion. In 2022, he and Dr. Mehmet Oz competed for the Republican nomination in the race to replace retiring Sen. Pat Toomey.
Trump ultimately endorsed Oz in the closing weeks of the primary, narrowly securing him the nomination. (McCormick refused to say the 2020 election was stolen.)
Oz went on to lose the Senate race to John Fetterman.
There was no grueling primary contest this time around. McCormick coasted to the nomination and earned Trump’s backing in April, even after reasserting his belief that Biden won the 2020 election legitimately.
“He’s a good man. He wants to run a good ship. He’s a smart guy who was a very successful guy,” Trump said of McCormick in his endorsement.
The pair appeared together throughout the campaign, as both vied for the favor of Pennsylvania voters. McCormick addressed a crowd in Butler, Pennsylvania, just minutes before the former president was shot, and returned with him months later in a show of solidarity.
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Mark Alfred is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.
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