As Senate Republicans explore options to swiftly end a government shutdown, there is one procedural maneuver leadership is already firmly dismissing: changing the filibuster rules.
“That’s not in the cards,” Majority Whip John Barrasso told NOTUS. “We’re going to continue to bring this continuing resolution to the floor. Three Democrats voted with us yesterday. I know there’s some more that are considering it. We’re going to reopen the government.”
Multiple Senate Republicans told NOTUS they anticipate a drip-drip of Democrats will eventually support the GOP-led continuing resolution as a shutdown becomes politically and logistically painful in their home states.
In Senate Republicans’ ideal world, that happens quickly. Three Democrats have already backed the stopgap measure, and Republicans are following a few moderate lawmakers who are retiring after this Congress, including Sens. Gary Peters and Jeanne Shaheen.
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In the meantime, Republicans have shown no appetite to negotiate with Democrats on their demands to extend Affordable Care Act tax subsidies or restrict the Trump administration’s ability to claw back congressionally approved funds. So if Republicans bet wrong, and Democrats don’t budge, a shutdown could drag on for weeks.
That has left at least some Republican senators to consider more extreme alternatives, like changing Senate rules to make passing their continuing resolution easier. For example, they could vote to lower the threshold to pass appropriations bills from 60 — which is the current requirement — to a simple majority.
Sen. Josh Hawley told NOTUS that such rules changes could be a “possibility.”
“I don’t think the ball is rolling at all,” he said of any momentum to end the shutdown. “I think it’s stuck in the mud. I don’t think it’s going anywhere. I mean, that’s my concern. I mean, you know how this is, once you go off the cliff, like, how do you get out of it?”
The Senate hasn’t shied away from rules changes this term. In September, the chamber voted to allow sub-Cabinet level and non-judicial nominees to be confirmed in groups instead of individually, speeding up the confirmation of the president’s picks.
Republicans pushed for that change after Senate Democrats filibustered an unusually high number of President Donald Trump’s nominees in an attempt to slow administration staffing. Those filibusters forced Republicans into a long voting process even on low-level civilian nominees, causing a severe drag on their schedule.
The Senate GOP in August sought to broker a deal with Democrats to allow for an agreed upon batch of nominees to be sped up. Democrats refused, and Republicans said it left them with no choice.
Some Republican senators point to that precedent as reason to consider a shutdown-related rules change.
“We’ve had to change the rules on nominations, right? And so at some point, we’ve got to be able to do our job,” Sen. Rick Scott told NOTUS. “And if the Democrats are just going to be complete obstructionists, I think we’re not going to have a choice.
“We’ve got to fund the government,” he continued. “We’ve got to keep the government going.”
A senior White House official told NOTUS that they’ve heard no discussion on nuking the filibuster in case of a protracted shutdown arguing that the situation has not gotten to that point yet.
But asked how the White House bridges the trust gap between Republicans and Democrats, who have said for days that they don’t trust the White House to follow through on promises to negotiate extending the Affordable Care Act subsidies — a must for Democrats — the official said: “They don’t have another choice. They have zero cards.”
Most Senate Republicans still seem closed off to the idea, knowing it is a risk to change the rules, particularly eliminating the filibuster on legislation. The Senate’s 60-vote threshold has historically preserved some power for the minority party.
Although removing the filibuster would allow Senate Republicans to quickly end this government shutdown, they want to preserve leverage in the future negotiations if they enter the minority.
“No, I don’t. I really don’t,” Cramer told NOTUS when asked if he thought a rules change was possible. “Republicans have been pretty solid in support of maintaining the filibuster for basic appropriations. I can’t imagine.”
Some lawmakers have proposed changing the way government shutdowns fundamentally work. Sen. Ron Johnson introduced a bill to fund the government automatically in two week increments at continuing levels after every missed funding deadline. That bill went to a vote this week but garnered lackluster support.
“We haven’t changed the law,” Sen. Chuck Grassley, a backer of the bill, told NOTUS. “And that’s what Johnson tried to do, and only 37 Republicans voted for it.”
“That’s the problem,” Grassley said. “Change the law.”
Johnson himself seemed doubtful an outright rules change would end this shutdown.
“I mean, there are things we could potentially offer to reduce pain from the American public,” Johnson told NOTUS. “But I wouldn’t think we would be trying to change any rules here based on the Schumer shutdown.”
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