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Policy

Social Security Is in Worse Shape Than Previously Projected: Report

Low fertility rates, less immigration and tax cuts are accelerating its insolvency.

Social Security office

George Walker IV/AP

By Torrie Herrington

June 9, 2026 05:25 p.m.

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A new report compiled by the trustees who oversee Social Security projects that the program, which issues payments to millions of retired and disabled Americans, will run out of money to issue full benefit payments by 2032 — a year earlier than previously projected.

The trustees, which include Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and acting Labor Secretary Keith Sonderling, suggested that fewer immigrants and low fertility rates would exacerbate Social Security’s financial issues over the next decade. Both would shrink the number of working-aged people paying into the program.

The report also states that as a result of the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” Trump’s tax legislation last year, less income tax will be paid on Social Security benefits. Therefore, the program’s trust fund will “receive lower levels of revenue in the future from income taxation of Social Security benefits.”

While the analysis estimates that Social Security payments will exceed the sum of its reserve funds by 2032, it will not be completely bankrupt as money will continue to flow into the program’s trust fund via payroll taxes. The trustees, all close allies of President Donald Trump, predicted in their report that the government would need to cut monthly Social Security benefits by 22% beginning in 2032 to keep the program running.

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Social Security benefits go out to 70 million Americans. And, according to the left-leaning think tank the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Social Security keeps more Americans out of poverty than any other program in the country.

Myechia Minter-Jordan, the CEO of AARP, said in a statement that the latest report “should be a wake-up call” and that “Congress needs to act.”

“Americans have worked hard and paid into Social Security their entire lives, and they deserve to count on it when they retire,” she said. “No family should see any cuts to what they’ve earned in Social Security. ”

The trustees also called for legislative action, but did not suggest specific remedies that lawmakers should pursue.

“Lawmakers have many options for changes that would reduce or eliminate the long-term financing shortfalls,” the report reads. “Taking action sooner rather than later will allow consideration of a broader range of solutions and provide more time to phase in changes so that the public has adequate time to prepare.”

Author

AJI-Fellow2025_Torrie Herrington.png Torrie Herrington is a reporter at The Washington Sun and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.

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