Today’s notice: Thought you’d have a break from campaign season? Think again. Dan Scavino doesn’t want people knowing he’s tight with his boss. And get ready to go down a Gulf of America rabbit hole.
Not Your ‘Typical Midterms’
The last time midterms took place during a Donald Trump presidency, things didn’t go so hot for House Republicans.
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In 2018, the GOP faced a drubbing courtesy of the Democrats, who flipped a whopping 41 House seats and handed the gavel back to Nancy Pelosi. Now Republicans, high off of their 2024 electoral sweep, are bullish they can stave off another so-called “blue wave” in the 2026 midterms.
“I don’t think this is your typical midterm,” NRCC Chair Richard Hudson told NOTUS.
Conversations about Nov. 2026 in March 2025 are definitely early and hard to draw any conclusions from. But both parties are already making moves that signal ahead, like the NRCC releasing its “target list” of 26 Democrats they plan to prioritize this cycle.
The DCCC hasn’t dropped its own list yet, but it has made clear its plans to attack the GOP over proposed Medicaid cuts and it is leaning in on the economy (look who’s talking egg prices, now!). Democrats are also trying to galvanize their grassroots at town halls.
In terms of the map, Republicans say there’s some mathematical justification for optimism. Only three Republicans — Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick, Don Bacon and Mike Lawler — represent districts won by Kamala Harris in 2024. Meanwhile, 13 Democrats are in districts won by Trump.
Where Republicans see vulnerability, Democrats see battle-tested incumbents who won despite the GOP’s dominant 2024 performance. To retake the House, Democrats will have to hold the line and flip at least three seats.
That makes for a radically different map from the expansive battleground of 2018. Then, the DCCC targeted 59 Republican seats and the NRCC competed seriously for 36 Democratic seats.
“We’re in a very different place,” former NRCC Chair Steve Stivers, who oversaw the 2018 midterms, told NOTUS.
“I will tell you that the administration is moving really fast this time,” Stivers said. “They will likely have some victories as a result of that, which means they’ll have a record to run on, and so will the House, and so it should make things better.”
—Riley Rogerson | Read the story.
Across the Capitol Building…
Senate Democrats are making their own early midterm moves.
NOTUS’ Calen Razor reports that Democratic powers that be are leaning on former Gov. Roy Cooper to announce a bid against Sen. Thom Tillis. Cooper, a favorite in centrist Democratic circles, is widely seen as perhaps the only Democrat who could take down the politically slippery Tillis.
“He gets encouragement every single day from folks all across North Carolina, as well as Democrat leaders around the country who really want him to run,” Morgan Jackson, a longtime adviser to Cooper, told NOTUS.
But don’t expect an announcement from Cooper just yet; Jackson said the 67-year-old is still ruminating on his options.
Front Page
- The Trump Administration Threatened to Invoke ‘National Security’ to Stonewall a Judge: The DOJ argued details about the deportation flights “could be catastrophic” to U.S. security.
- Lawmakers Are Pressing the Trump Team for Answers on Abducted Ukrainian Children: “It looks like we’re playing into the hands of Putin again, and it’s not good,” Rep. Don Bacon told NOTUS.
- The House Oversight Committee Wants Answers From FEMA on the Hurricane Helene Response: The subcommittee on government operations is planning a hearing next week on what happened in North Carolina.
- Zelenskyy Agrees to Ceasefire on Energy Infrastructure in His Call With Trump: Trump also suggested the United States eventually take over Ukrainian energy plants.
- The White House Says It’s the Victim of ‘Lawfare’ From a Judge in the Deportation Flights Case: Press secretary Karoline Leavitt echoed President Donald Trump’s claim that U.S. District Judge James Boasberg is an “activist judge.”
The ‘Gulf of America’ Turmoil Inside the U.S. Geological Survey
In January, Trump’s stated desire to rename the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America” appeared to come entirely out of left field. As it turns out, the U.S. Geological Survey had discussed and shot down that idea nearly two decades earlier — a fact agency officials did not want to be discussed publicly, Dave Levinthal reports for NOTUS.
After Trump floated the idea, one staffer told another, “No one needs to know this has come up before. At least right now,” according to an internal chat Levinthal obtained. That message and others illustrate the freak-out inside the U.S. Geological Survey, as its comms team discussed whether to even respond to inquiries from reporters pouring in from across the globe.
Number You Should Know
23
That’s the number of Social Security Administration office leases the Department of Government Efficiency has now listed for termination. It’s less than half the number it originally planned to get rid of.
Last week, NOTUS’ Helen Huiskes reported on concerns from advocates in areas where local offices appeared to be on DOGE’s chopping block. This week, many of those offices appear to be safe after DOGE updated its list of leases it plans to terminate. They accounted for most of the total floorspace set to be cut, which fell from 330,064 square feet to 88,209 square feet as of Wednesday.
—Mark Alfred and Helen Huiskes | Read the story.
One of Trump’s Closest Advisers Wants Some Space
At least, legally speaking.
Dan Scavino, Trump’s longtime social media guru turned deputy chief, is trying to keep court filings from a Jan. 6-related lawsuit under seal. His argument: Revealing “his relationship with the president could be disastrous to his reputation,” NOTUS’ Jose Pagliery reports.
“The current political climate and the observable news cycles over the last nine years have demonstrated that revealing inoffensive details about one’s involvement with President Trump’s administration, particularly in the matters discussed in the sealed exhibits, would likely to lead to public degradation,” Scavino attorney Mark P. Nobile wrote.
The plaintiff’s lawyer, Edward Caspar, responded: “Were it so, then surely [Scavino] would not have agreed to serve as an official senior advisor to President Trump in his second term.”
Not Us
We know NOTUS reporters can’t cover it all. Here’s some other great hits by … not us.
- Hill Republicans already hated the ‘idiotic’ call to impeach judges. Then Trump jumped in. By Rachael Bade and Meredith Lee Hill at Politico
- Republicans are already gaming out Vance’s 2028 odds by Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott at Semafor
- After COVID, Texas is less prepared for the next pandemic by Eleanor Klibanoff at The Texas Tribune
Be Social
Get Grimace a gavel.
He’s lurking in the sacred halls of government pic.twitter.com/hUqb1oVch1
— Esteban Clark-Braendle (@EstebanwithanR) March 18, 2025
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