Today’s notice: Democrats in tough battlegrounds. A federal judge inches closer to holding Trump officials in contempt. Who’s winning the trade war and who’s losing.
Who’s in the Bernie-AOC Crowds?
On Tuesday, yet another venue filled with a crowd eager to see Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Fighting Oligarchy tour. At this stop in Bakersfield, California, some people were even left waiting outside — a reminder that they’re among the politicians drawing the biggest crowds, even in red parts of America.
The Bakersfield event was small compared to the 36,000-plus person audiences the pair has recently drawn. They’ve traveled to areas like Idaho and Utah, where Democrats are rarely seen in the wild, and Arizona and Nevada, swing states where Donald Trump won. Democrats are watching how their popularity translates outside of blue areas as the party looks to its future.
Trending
Jeri Shepherd, a Democratic party chair in a red-leaning Colorado county that hosted a Bernie-AOC rally last month, said their appeal comes from rejecting the party’s traditional playbook.
“This isn’t just about being not Trump. It is about being for people and elevating people who have historically been marginalized,” Shepherd told us.
Faiz Shakir, Bernie’s 2020 campaign manager and a tour organizer, told NOTUS that 65% of attendees at the rallies are “consistently” new to Sanders’ already massive grassroots list. When those folks are compared to the voter file, a third are not Democrats at all: 21% are unaffiliated and 7.4% are registered Republicans.
Numbers like that could mean opportunity. But some of the people trying to help Democrats message in these places say the party should not be content watching from the sidelines.
“The Bernie-AOC tour makes vanquished Democrats feel good in the face of the Trump-Musk blitzkrieg,” Matt L. Barron, a strategist who runs campaigns against Republicans in red states, told NOTUS. But unless they invest in building a strong party organization in rural places to capitalize on that energy, it won’t amount to anything, he added.
As the Democratic brand declines and MAGA pursues a divisive agenda, these rallies may end up being a gauge of how to tap into the energy that Democrats are hungry for.
—Evan McMorris-Santoro and Shifra Dayak
Iowa’s New Outsider Dem
Speaking of Democrats hoping to make inroads in red states, Marine veteran Nathan Sage says he’s the candidate to win Sen. Joni Ernst’s seat back for the party in 2026.
Sage launched his bid this morning, NOTUS’ Alex Roarty reports. Sage says his working-class background will help him appeal to voters that establishment Democratic figures can’t reach. And his candidacy comes as Democrats are trying to figure out how to navigate a tough Senate map next year, as they attempt to regain the majority.
“Sage’s candidacy will test the Democratic Party’s interest in unconventional candidates who say their nontraditional background means they can better connect with the blue-collar electorate of most red states,” Alex writes.
Front Page
- The White House Is Questioning Why Elite Universities Get Federal Dollars: Press secretary Karoline Leavitt revved up the administration’s fight with Harvard.
- States Are Grappling With the Risks of Defying Trump’s Anti-DEI Order: “We have to fight as hard as we can without losing federal funding,” Rep. Ritchie Torres said.
- FEMA Task Force Urges ‘Cautious Approach,’ As Trump’s Administration Pushes Dismantling: The North Carolina task force recommends against some of the moves the administration has already taken.
- Zuckerberg Forced to Confront Past Comments He Might Have to ‘Spin Out’ Social Media Apps: The FTC argued in an antitrust trial that Meta engaged in monopoly practices by buying Instagram and WhatsApp.
‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Update: The Jam
NOTUS’ Hill team has an update on what members can expect on reconciliation when they get back from recess: fights over what to cut and how much.
“As the legislative details are finally filled in, there’s no more can-kicking,” write NOTUS’ Reese Gorman and Daniella Diaz. “Some Republicans will win and some will lose.” Among the biggest sticking points for Republicans are potential cuts to Medicaid, a red line for some Republicans and a must-have for others.
Tariff Winners: Natural Gas
The liquefied natural gas industry “could be one of the few industries to immediately benefit from trade negotiations” because it’s something other countries can buy in large enough quantities to reduce trade deficits with the U.S.
America is the global leader in LNG exports, and the administration has been pushing LNG as a bargaining chip. Its challenge, writes NOTUS’ Anna Kramer, will be convincing countries that they can enter into costly new deals and trust that the Trump administration will stick to consistent trade policy.
Tariff Losers: Manufacturers?
Meanwhile, NOTUS’ Haley Byrd Wilt reports on American manufacturers considering moving their companies offshore because the parts they buy will get expensive under the tariffs. “The raw materials cost thanks to the crazy China tariffs are supercharging Mexico as a magnet for U.S. manufacturing,” a knowledgeable lobbyist told Haley. “Set up shop on the other side of the border and you can circumvent most of those costs.”
A Lower Court Immigration Update
A federal judge indicated on Tuesday that the Trump administration could eventually be held in contempt of court if officials don’t take concrete steps to return Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia, the Maryland man erroneously deported to El Salvador.
U.S. District Judge Paula Xinis gave the Trump administration a two-week period to turn over government records to Abrego Garcia’s lawyers and said she expects “all hands on deck,” NOTUS’ Jose Pagliery reported from the hearing.
Not Us
We know NOTUS reporters can’t cover it all. Here’s some other great hits by… not us.
- ‘Alien Enemies’ or Innocent Men? Inside Trump’s Rushed Effort to Deport 238 Migrants by Julie Turkewitz, Jazmine Ulloa, Isayen Herrera, Hamed Aleaziz and Zolan Kanno-Youngs for The New York Times
- Exclusive: Climate activists were hacked. There was a link between victims and an alleged attacker by Michael Copley for NPR
- The Little-Known Bureaucrats Tearing Through American Universities by Liz Essley Whyte, Douglas Belkin and Sara Randazzo for The Wall Street Journal
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