New York Is the Congress of America

Today’s notice: The margins. Long Island Democrats tack right to win some of the swingiest House seats of the cycle. Vance dispatched to blue Pennsylvania. Trump does the podcast circuit to juice the vote.

New York, New York

Of course New York couldn’t let Pennsylvania have all the fun. In the final throes of this election cycle, we are staring down a Madison Square Garden Donald Trump rally, some of the most contested races of this cycle, and maybe, just maybe, a Mets vs. Yankees World Series (Was Eric Adams’ hat actually destiny?).

New York is poised to decide control of the House. Specifically, three races on Long Island are critical to the majority. Trump rallied there last month, and Thursday, Hakeem Jeffries stumped with Democratic candidate Laura Gillen, who is giving Rep. Anthony D’Esposito a run for his money. Mike Johnson, meanwhile, told the New York Post Wednesday that the New York GOP will “defy the odds” and flip more seats this year.

Rep. Nick LaLota, who is well positioned in his race against former CNN reporter John Avlon, told NOTUS that Republicans “understand that the trajectory of the House, and thereby the country, will be decided mostly through the New York suburbs and Southern California suburbs.”

Meanwhile, Avlon is so “bullish” about his chances, that he pushed back on the “fundamentally false” narratives that his district is trending red before NOTUS could even pose a question about his tough race.

One main thing to watch in these races: how far right Democrats are willing to go on issues like immigration, crime and the economy. The background of a recent mailer from the New York State Democratic Committee shows photos of Rep. Tom Suozzi at the border, with border patrol agents, with a picture of a wall behind it, evoking some “build the wall” energy.

The Republicans are sure to get a boost in the election’s final days when Trump comes back for his most extravagant rally to date: Oct. 27 at MSG, where top tickets are going for nearly $1 million.

—Riley Rogerson | Read the story here.

Hochul Dismisses Harris Transition Rumors

Speaking of New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul clearly caught wind of Jasmine Wright’s report on nascent Harris transition efforts. Multiple sources told NOTUS that Hochul’s team has reached out, saying the governor wants a job in a possible Harris administration. At a press conference Thursday morning, a forceful Hochul said the report was “categorically false” and blamed it “on bad actors.”

“People are trying to create the notion that I’m not running for reelection, and I’m running for reelection,” she said. “There are a lot of people in that category. “

A senior Democrat texted NOTUS of Jasmine’s report: “It’s def true.”

—Evan McMorris-Santoro and Jasmine Wright

Front Page

• Why Republicans Care About a Solid Blue Pennsylvania County: To win Pennsylvania, the Trump campaign has to maximize GOP support in Allegheny County.
• Kamala Harris Calls Sinwar’s Death an ‘Opportunity’ to End the War in Gaza: “Justice has been served,” the vice president said of Israel killing the Hamas leader.

What Does Trump Bro-ing Out Sound Like?

There’s more to Trump’s long podcast appearances than the outlandish moments that go viral as clips, reports NOTUS’ John T. Seward. He listened to more than 12 hours of Trump on pods and found the former president “almost always quotes Viktor Orbán,” praises Vladimir Putin and warns about the possibility of World War III.

This general tough-guy approach to foreign policy could be sending a domestic policy message to the legion of pod listeners brought together by a fandom that “spans gun culture, combat sports and shock-value humor,” a historian tells John: “It really is a very traditionalist viewpoint, which appeals to sort of young, often disaffected men.”

Read the story here.

The Margins Game

JD Vance stopped in downtown Pittsburgh yesterday afternoon, confident that the campaign will reach the 40% threshold in Allegheny County that Trump got in 2016. Just like when Harris (and particularly Tim Walz) go to rural, ruby red parts of Pennsylvania, the Trump campaign is playing a margins game in Pittsburgh and its suburbs. How to win? Lose by less.

But in Wexford, an affluent Republican suburb on the county line, it’s hard to see where the Trump camp is breaking through. You’ll find plenty of signs for Republican down-ballot candidates, but not a sign around for the former president.

I went canvassing with Americans for Prosperity, who are knocking doors for Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick. In Wexford, there was little love for Trump.

“He bugs the crap out of me, to be quite honest,” one Republican on the group’s list told me.

—Katherine Swartz, reporting from Pittsburgh

Not Us

We know NOTUS reporters can’t cover it all. Here’s some other great hits by… not us.

• A thorough examination of Walz’s campaign trail style, by Kerry Howley for New York.
• The often hypocritical immigration politics of the Lone Star State, by Jack Herrera for Texas Monthly.
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez stumped for a centrist New York congressional candidate. What does that signal for her future — and her party’s? By Jon Campbell for Gothamist.

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