Today’s notice: Schrödinger’s health care talks. Guard deployments vs. the courts. Meet the candidate who quit Trump’s DOJ to run for Congress. Plus: Kellyanne Conway brings Ukraine to Trumpworld.
THE LATEST
Over and over again: Senators told the NOTUS Hill team yesterday that after the fifth vote on the same continuing resolution, life in the chamber was beginning to feel like “Groundhog Day.” Democrats, however, said it was a time loop they were willing to bear.
“I was in the Marines. You know how many times I had to do the same thing over and over again?” Sen. Ruben Gallego said. “This is nothing.”
Trending
Are things moving at all? Monday was the day to talk about talking. The White House said there are and are not talks going on with Democrats about the shutdown. Karoline Leavitt said there were no discussions. Donald Trump said there were.
Democrats agreed with Leavitt — though they said they’re ready to talk if Trump wants to.
“There are a lot of informal discussions, but so far there’s no product, so we have the discussion draft,” Sen. Susan Collins told reporters while literally thumbing through the draft in question, which could be the beginning of a bipartisan deal with other senators.
Who’s talking about it? Collins said she’d circulated the plan “selectively.”
Are people talking about this correctly? Democrats who are focused on campaigns feel pretty good about their shutdown gamble. Several major polls show Americans generally agree with Democrats that health care is the issue, and that Republicans are to blame for the government remaining closed.
But the polling is complicated. Republicans are blasting out a public poll they say puts Democrats on the back foot because it found 65% of respondents want Dems to vote for a CR and reopen the government. But it also found that 53% blame Republicans for the shutdown.
But! 62% said Republicans will win the shutdown.
You know what else it shows? 8% of Democrats said they were more likely to vote for Republicans because of the shutdown, and 9% of Republicans said they were more likely to vote for Democrats because of it.
2026 is a long way off. NOTUS’ Riley Rogerson and Ursula Perano report that the pitched messaging fight going on now (largely in the form of memes) is playing a part in each party’s electoral messaging, but no one thinks it’s the star. “We are not thinking about its impact on the midterm election,” Hakeem Jeffries said Monday.
Open tabs: Pressure grows on Virginia Democratic candidate to quit after violent texts (The Hill); Trump considers cutting US refugee intake, focusing on white South Africans (AP); France in political and market turmoil after prime minister resigns (FT)
From the states
Courts and chaos, again. Trump says he has the power to deploy Texas National Guard forces to Chicago over the objection of state authorities. Illinois and Chicago have taken the president to federal court, but the judge in the case said yesterday that she needed more time before ruling on a temporary restraining order against the deployment.
A different set of federal judges are set to rule on a TRO blocking the deployment of National Guard forces to Portland, Oregon. It’s the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, which stepped in over the summer to block a similar TRO against Trump’s federal deployment in Los Angeles, so the president’s allies feel good about their chances.
From the White House
The end is near? Trump is meeting with surviving Israeli American hostage Edan Alexander today to mark the anniversary of Oct. 7, 2023, just one day after peace talks began in Egypt between Israel and Hamas.
Trump is signaling optimism that the end of the bloody, now two-year-long conflict may finally be at hand, telling reporters in the Oval Office that he was “pretty sure” the two sides were close to an agreement. He added that “Hamas has been agreeing to things that are very important,” though he did not elaborate about what those things were.
From the DOJ
Watch this space? A bipartisan coalition of trade groups, think tanks and businesses sent a letter to the White House this week expressing disappointment that the robust antitrust efforts they expected in Trump 2.0 haven’t manifested. A source familiar with the letter told NOTUS the group formed after the DOJ moved to allow HP to take over Juniper, which dismayed competition advocates and exposed a rift between MAGA types who supported former FTC Chair Lina Khan and the ones who opposed her aggressive approach.
The letter aims to show the more pro-regulatory officials in the DOJ that they have broad support across many sectors.
From the campaign trail
Can you run for Congress against Trump’s DOJ? Former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell is trying it in Pennsylvania, challenging incumbent Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie as a Democrat. NOTUS’ Jose Pagliery spent a day on the trail with Crosswell, who is proudly touting his decision to quit his job in the Public Integrity Section rather than follow Justice Department orders to drop federal charges against NYC Mayor Eric Adams.
“I’ve been trying to explain to voters that corruption is a kitchen-table issue,” Croswell told Jose.
Democratic showdown in Maine: The state’s auditor, Matt Dunlap, on Monday launched a primary challenge against moderate Rep. Jared Golden in a race that could directly affect the party’s hopes of winning a House majority next year.
Everything’s bigger in Texas — especially primaries. Former Federal Election Commissioner Trey Trainor, a Trump ally who resigned from the agency last week, has announced a campaign to replace Rep. Chip Roy.
Trainor joins an already crowded field, including former MLB All-Star Mark Teixeira, former county GOP chair Mike Wheeler and former nominee for county district attorney Daniel Betts.
NEW ON NOTUS
Kellyanne’s clients: Former top White House adviser Kellyanne Conway has been reaching out to high-ranking officials in the second Trump administration on behalf of Ukrainian oligarch and philanthropist Victor Pinchuk, NOTUS’ Violet Jira reports.
Less than three weeks after Conway reported speaking to the White House’s special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, the diplomat appeared at Pinchuk’s Yalta European Strategy summit in Kyiv. Special presidential envoy Ric Grenell appeared virtually at another Pinchuk event along with some elected Republicans following a meeting with Conway.
Deadly year for ICE: Twenty-one immigrants died in the agency’s detention centers in fiscal year 2025, one of the highest on record, NOTUS’ Amelia Benavides-Colón reports. “This is the direct result of this administration expanding the use of private, for-profit prisons that put their bottom line over people’s health and safety,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal, the ranking member on the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Immigration Integrity, Security and Enforcement, said of the uptick.
More: Republicans Want a Low-Key Oklahoma Superintendent to Replace His MAGA Predecessor, by Adora Brown
Ken Martin Says the DNC Is ‘Bullish’ About Elections Next Month, by Amelia Benavides-Colón
NOT US
- Democrats see a path to flipping the crime debate, by Lisa Kashinsky and Brakkton Booker for Politico
- How some veterans exploit $193 billion VA program, due to lax controls, by Craig Whitlock, Lisa Rein and Caitlin Gilbert for The Washington Post
- The Meme Shutdown, by Will Gottsegen for The Atlantic
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