Johnson’s Judgment Day

Today’s notice: All you need to know ahead of today’s speaker election. TL;DR it’s going to be dramatic. We just don’t know if it’s Mike Rogers nearly attacking Matt Gaetz dramatic.

One of Trump’s First Tests

If last month’s test of Donald Trump’s influence over House Republicans’ right flank was any indication, Mike Johnson might be in trouble.

It was only two weeks ago that Trump promised to primary any conservative who voted against a debt ceiling increase and gave a public tongue-lashing to Rep. Chip Roy. And still, fiscal conservatives emphatically defied his wishes, helping tank the bill on the floor.

Today’s speaker vote will be the latest test of his power over the party.

Trump endorsed Johnson on Monday. And it has helped. Two of Johnson’s critics, Reps. Warren Davidson and Paul Gosar — who both backed ousting Johnson in May — have publicly committed to supporting the speaker.

“President Trump wants Speaker Johnson,” Davidson posted on X on Thursday. “To quote General Patton: ‘A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week.’”

But the endorsement didn’t create the flood of “yes” votes that Johnson hoped for. Some 14 members are still undecided or demanding policy or procedural commitments from Johnson, while Rep. Thomas Massie doubled down on voting against him.

Massie is the only opposition Johnson can afford within his own ranks. But if Johnson faces a mass mutiny, it might say less about his ability to govern the conference and more about Trump’s ability to control the party.

“Donald Trump, his endorsement carries a lot of weight, and we want to see him succeed,” Rep. Ralph Norman told reporters on Thursday. “But it boils down to concrete steps and things that Mike can put into action, as only a speaker can do.”

Read the story.

Six Names We’re Watching in Round One

In case you need a refresher, the speaker vote happens viva voce, meaning members are called on alphabetically to cast their pick. By the time they’re through the “B” names, we should have a decent sense of which direction this ballot is headed since Johnson can only afford to lose one vote. Still, here are the other key players to watch:

1. Andy Biggs: The former Freedom Caucus chair has repeatedly declared himself undecided. If he votes against Johnson, it likely signals more trouble ahead for the speaker. If he votes for Johnson, that indicates his, and likely others’, concerns have been quelled.

2. Eric Burlison: The soon-to-be sophomore has quickly developed a reputation as one of the conference’s staunchest conservatives. Before heading home to Missouri for the holidays, he described Johnson’s funding plan as a “total dumpster fire,” though NOTUS’ Reese Gorman reported that he responded positively to conversations with the speaker, saying the communications moved Johnson “up a notch.”

3. Andy Harris: The Freedom Caucus chair is holding out, saying: “Before the last couple of weeks, I was in his corner, but now we should consider what’s the best path forward.” If Harris votes against Johnson, more dominoes are likely to fall.

4. Andy Ogles: He’s a good example of someone Johnson should be able to get to yes. In an interview this week with “The Michael Patrick Leahy Show,” Ogles lamented Congress’ inability to get the U.S.’s “fiscal house in order,” but expects Johnson will still be speaker next term and suggested he wants to find a way to support him. To do so, he said he needs to hear Johnson “give me his word that he’s going to execute this plan that he’s laying out.”

5. Chip Roy: Other than Massie — the only firm “no” — Roy is the toughest sell on Johnson. He’s shouted his displeasure with Johnson’s leadership during several rants on the House floor this term. The hard-liner insists he’s undecided; he’s widely considered the most likely member to join Massie.

6. Victoria Spartz: A perennial wild card, during Kevin McCarthy’s speakership battle, Spartz caught attention for voting “present.” If she does so again, she narrows Johnson’s path toward reelection. (Spartz is technically a Republican but rejected participating in caucus or committee next term until she sees that “Republican leadership in Congress is governing.”)

—Riley Rogerson

Number You Should Know

218*

When the House meets to decide Johnson’s fate, 434 members are expected to be in the chamber; 219 will be Republicans.

To retain the gavel, Johnson needs the support of a majority of those voting. Democrats are expected to unanimously support Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. So, to win, Johnson can only lose one Republican vote.

Assuming Massie sticks to his guns in opposing Johnson, he’ll be that vote. And Massie has seemed steadfast in his plan to support someone else, meaning his vote will sting extra. Whereas Johnson could survive three Republicans simply sitting out the election, he can only withstand Massie voting “no” and one other Republican choosing not to vote.

Essentially, to find the number Johnson needs, take the total number of votes cast in the House and divide it by two. If the total number is an odd number (like, say, 433), round up to the next full integer to find the magic number (217). If the total number is even (like, say, 434), add a whole vote to find what Johnson needs (218).

There’s also the matter of members voting “present,” which functionally lowers the threshold needed to win by half a vote. But only a few Republican members can use the strategy. Too many “present” votes would hand the gavel to Jeffries.

—Ben T.N. Mause

In Other News: Trump’s Day One Abortion Agenda Could Look Like This

While Trump has promised not to sign a national abortion ban, his cabinet has ways to restrict it, and NOTUS’ Oriana González lays out exactly how.

Pam Bondi, his pick for attorney general, could direct the Department of Justice to enforce the Comstock Act, drop lawsuits to protect abortion and follow a stricter interpretation of the Hyde Amendment.

Sen. Marco Rubio, his pick for secretary of state, could reimplement the Mexico City policy, which requires foreign nongovernment groups that get American global health assistance to prove they don’t use their non-U.S. dollars to assist in abortions. Trump’s picks for HHS, Veterans Affairs and others have their own maneuverings to leverage, and folks seem to be on board with whatever Trump wants.

“Policy is going to be set by the White House, we’ll be there to implement it, but, you know, whatever the president’s direction on that is what we’re going to do,” Rubio told NOTUS.

Read the story.

Not Us

We know NOTUS reporters can’t cover it all. Here’s some other great hits by… not us.

• Infrastructure neglect and poverty lead to parasites in the Mississippi Delta by Delaney Nolan at The Guardian
• How Health Insurers Racked Up Billions in Extra Payments From Medicare Advantage by Christopher Weaver at The Wall Street Journal
• Are Russian Sanctions Working? Debate Gains New Urgency With Trump. By Patricia Cohen at The New York Times

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Points for self-awareness.

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