‘A Roller Coaster’: That’s how one Trump-loyal GOP strategist close to the White House described the twists and turns of American war policy over the past few days. The strategist told NOTUS’ White House team it reminded them of the immediate aftermath of “Liberation Day.”
“Before, it was Navarro vs. Musk. Now, it’s Tulsi and JD vs. Rubio and AIPAC,” they said.
What Trump is saying: “AMERICA FIRST means many GREAT things, including the fact that, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON,” he said Tuesday on Truth Social. He also posted “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” during the time he was set to be meeting in the Situation Room.
JD Vance spent the day arguing this rhetoric is consistent with what Trump promised on the campaign trail. “I just wanted to explain to the American people, if you want safety, part of safety, and I think all Americans want that, is ensuring that the worst people in the world don’t have a nuclear bomb,” he told reporters on Capitol Hill, explaining a long X post of his that essentially said, “America First” is Trump’s vision, so what Trump does with Iran is “America First.”
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Trump battled critics more directly. He called Tucker Carlson “kooky” Monday after the former Fox News host suggested military action in Iran was a betrayal to Trump’s coalition. Carlson, meanwhile, shared a snippet Tuesday on X of his heated exchange with Sen. Ted Cruz. “You’re a senator who’s calling for the overthrow of the government and you don’t know anything about the country!” Carlson said during an intense back-and-forth on Iran.
Someone’s gotta be wrong here. Everyone is speculating on how seriously to take this MAGA rift, even as the number of big movement names warning the president against military action grows.
One side says those like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene will get over it and get in line with Trump. The other? Asked whether the base will eventually get over it if Trump decides to intervene, the strategist close to the White House said, “It’s definitely no.”
A Lot of Republicans Sound Fine With Trump Taking the Lead Here. “Iran’s been at war with the United States since 1979, so I think he has all the authority he needs,” Sen. John Cornyn told NOTUS’ John T. Seward, echoing many Senate Republicans who sounded perfectly fine ceding war powers.
“I will support whatever he decides,” Sen. Kevin Cramer told John.
The pushback: Sens. Tim Kaine and Bernie Sanders offered resolutions to limit the president’s moves regarding Iran without congressional authorization. Only libertarian Republicans like Sen. Rand Paul and Rep. Thomas Massie have issued their own criticisms.
John Bolton Says Trump Is Fretting. NOTUS’ Jasmine Wright spoke with Bolton, who Trump fired as national security adviser in his first term in part over disagreements on how hawkish to be toward Iran (Bolton being someone who has long called for the U.S. to attack the country).
On what Trump is thinking: “He just can’t make up his mind. Does he get the Nobel Prize for coming up with a new nuclear deal, or does he get credit for Israel’s victory by giving them back bunker busters? The question is not, ‘What’s the national security interest of the United States?’ It’s, ‘What guarantees Donald Trump’s center stage?’”
On the infrastructure informing his decision: “The entire systematic way the NSC is supposed to function is completely broken. So we really are now sitting there waiting for which neuron flash hits Trump first.”
On a negotiated settlement: “There’s no doubt in my mind, the Iranians … are frantic at this point. And they’re frantic because Israel is pounding them into the ground. But that doesn’t mean there’s a lasting agreement that you’re going to get out of this. They’ll say anything, yeah, stop the bombing.”
Big Oil Is Not Sounding an Alarm: Energy Secretary Chris Wright was set to address the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Forum (which is usually held in the UAE) yesterday, but got called away to the White House Situation Room. Taking his place was Brett McGurk, a Biden administration Middle East adviser, who has a hawkish reputation.
Amos Hochstein, another Biden Middle East policy figure in McGurk’s camp, was also there, alongside representatives from the UAE, Saudi Arabia and major U.S. oil companies, NOTUS’ Anna Kramer reports.
Their take? Unless Iran directly chooses to attack nearby oil infrastructure, the experts agreed the oil industry can withstand a Middle East conflict. “If it goes diplomacy, then the markets, you may even see a massive drop in prices,” Hochstein said. “But if it goes to escalation, even then, it would depend on what the reaction of the [Iranian] regime is.”
“The president will use every tool to ensure the price of energy in the U.S. remains stable,” a White House official told NOTUS.
Medicaid Cuts Update: “I just couldn’t take any more harangues about cutting Medicaid. I’ve had enough for a lifetime,” Sen. Josh Hawley told NOTUS’ Hill team after skipping the Senate Republican lunch Tuesday.
Vance and Mehmet Oz, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services administrator, did attend the lunch and left optimistic the Senate GOP can make a Medicaid cuts deal. But two camps of Republicans — Hawley, and the deficit hawks on the other side of the argument from him — are not sounding ready to vote.
White House Stock Portfolios: They’re heavy on TSLA and crypto, NOTUS’ Claire Heddles reports. Public disclosures show Karoline Leavitt owns the most Tesla stock of all White House staff, but is one of at least 11 staffers with shares in Elon Musk’s car company (the one that makes that car Trump has vowed to sell).
Crypto wallets aplenty, too. Sixteen White House staffers disclosed holding bitcoin or bitcoin-linked trust funds totaling between $800,000 and $2 million collectively.
New on NOTUS
- Republicans Trust Whatever Trump Decides on Farmworker Raids: The administration said it would continue to conduct immigration raids at farms and hotels.
- Democrats Preview a New Attack: Trump’s Pardons Are Majorly Expensive: A new Judiciary Committee memo claims President Donald Trump’s nearly 1,600 pardons could deprive victims of about $1.3 billion in fines and restitution.
- Appellate Judges Seem Skeptical They Can Stop Trump’s National Guard Deployment: The three-judge panel includes two appointees from Trump’s first term and one from the Biden administration.
Not Us
- Why the NYC Democratic mayoral candidates are vying for the Southeast Queens vote, by Brigid Bergin for Gothamist
- MAGA’s Plan to Remake an Iconic New York Landmark, by Ian Ward for Politico
- ‘Abundance’ Groups Boost Pro-Development City Council Candidates, by Samantha Maldonado for The City
Be Social
de-BasedMikeLee?
Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) has deleted all three of his tweets from his personal account that mocked and fanned conspiracies about the assassination of Minnesota Democrat state Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband.
— Jennifer Bendery (@jbendery) June 17, 2025
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