Today’s notice: The battleground map is getting very busy, and very big. Trump campaigns from home. Democrats press the Pentagon on Iran war deaths. And: A bipartisan request for answers on Ukraine aid.
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THE MAP
Democrats’ expectations are as high as they can be heading into the final weekend before the midterms. We have stories below of a Democratic governor playing in a Trump +38 district and more party money flowing to Senate races in South Carolina and Mississippi of all places. At this point, if Democrats don’t win the Senate, many will see it as a failure. Are their hopes too lofty?
Trending
“If we continue fighting in more and more and more states, and we don’t win ’em all, we’ll still win a bunch,” Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear told us in New Mexico this week.
Another potential 2028er, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, told us the risk to the narrative is worth the reward — while campaigning for the longest of Democratic long shots, Mississippi Senate nominee Scott Colom. “We are expanding the map for a reason, and we should lean into that,” Buttigieg said. “I think the knowledge and the muscle memory of how to have those conversations and expand the coalition is actually a very healthy thing to have more of inside the party, too.”
Still, the bar for a good night has been set very high. Too high for some. “To steal some phrasing I heard earlier today, I think the party is nauseously optimistic,” Rodericka Applewhaite of Majority Democrats told The Washington Sun’s Jasmine Wright. “No one seriously thinks a double chamber sweep is a done deal.”
From the emotional roller coaster both parties are riding now:
Ohio: John Thune talks to The Sun. “We’ve done all we can do, and with the things that we can control,” the Senate majority leader told our Al Weaver on a campaign stop in Clyde. What keeps Thune up at night? Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and Nebraska, he told Al. “The president’s not on the ballot, so there’s some headwinds that our candidates are dealing with,” he said, “but they’re really high-quality candidates.”
Alaska: Dan Sullivan-gate is already an ad. “Alaskans Won’t Fall for Peltola’s Scheme” is the title of the newest spot from the NRSC. The ad is basically a negative campaign ad-style recounting of what the NRSC called the “bombshell New York Times investigation” into how that other Dan Sullivan got on the ballot alongside Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan.
“I knew nothing about any other candidate on the ballot except for me and the incumbent,” Democrat Mary Peltola told a crowd in Juneau yesterday. “That is all I have ever known about. I am not interested in tricking voters.”
Texas: State sues Harris County over too woke GOTV ad targeting. The office of Attorney General Ken Paxton (who just so happens to be the Republican nominee for Senate) accused county clerk Teneshia Hudspeth’s office of running nonpartisan voting information ads online that “intentionally target certain racial and ethnic groups,” meaning Black, Latino and Asian voters, “but do not target other demographics,” i.e. white people.
Kansas: The next House map expansion. The DCCC is putting up its first TV ad in the 2nd Congressional District today, The Sun’s Kadia Goba reports. KS-02 was a Trump +20 district in 2024.
Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro’s project. He took his gubernatorial campaign into deep-red turf yesterday, campaigning for Democratic House candidate Rachel Wallace in a Trump +38 district. Wallace is trying to unseat Republican Rep. Dan Meuser. “We have not gotten support from the national Democratic Party,” Wallace told The Sun’s Alex Roarty on the trail yesterday. “But I have gotten support from Josh Shapiro. And that means a lot to me, and it means a lot to our community.”
Michigan: Together again. After a week of fiancé-gate following Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens’ betrothed endorsing Republican Mike Rogers over Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, the two former Democratic primary rivals will appear on stage together Sunday. They will be joined at a rally by Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-South Carolina).
The Sun’s Christa Dutton reports from an El-Sayed rally last night with Michigan Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin (who has been a much more vocal supporter than Stevens has been). Someone in the crowd told Christa they see El-Sayed as “Obama number two.”
South Carolina: Ralph Norman spoiler? Much of the past week or so in this Senate race has been about a man not on the ballot — Norman, the conservative congressman who lost to Sen. Darline Graham in the Republican primary and won’t campaign with her (and whose son has said he may vote for Democratic nominee Annie Andrews). Now there are signs an organized write-in campaign for Ralph Norman is gaining steam. Donald Trump stumped with Graham in Norman’s district yesterday, but NewsNation reported that Norman said he was not invited and would not have gone even if he was.
Alabama: Dummymander watch. The 2nd Congressional District — which Republicans redrew especially to oust Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures — is proving to be very competitive. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated the race a “toss-up” this week, and the NRCC and Republican nominee Rhett Marques dropped their first coordinated ad buy worth $13,565.
North Carolina: The most expensive House race, as in of all time, is in the state’s 1st District, where AdImpact says more than $54 million in ad reservations have been purchased this cycle. The new district map — redrawn by Republicans to boost their own chances — means the 1st now covers basically the entire northeast of the state. Democratic Rep. Don Davis is vying to keep his seat against Republican Laurie Buckhout.
Illinois: The pope votes by mail. “Robert Francis Prevost is on the list of individuals who requested a vote by mail ballot for the upcoming election,” the American pope’s county clerk, Kim Fladhammer, told the Chicago Sun-Times.
Nevada: A donation from beyond the grave? Republican David Flippo’s campaign recorded a donation of $143.56 from Val Sheldon on Oct. 13, though a woman matching the information listed died in 2019, The Sun’s Jenna Monnin reports. Flippo’s campaign treasurer said he is “looking into it.” It was not the first time Flippo’s campaign has recorded a contribution from a dead person.
More: Democrats Have a Bogeyman in Musk. They’re Hardly Using Him. • Ramaswamy Pulls Controversial Ad Featuring His Opponent’s Estranged Mother • Judge Wants More Details on Trump Administration’s Noncitizen Voting Pressure Campaign • Meet America’s Most Political Sports Owners
FROM THE WHITE HOUSE
Trump drops his travel plans: “Must be some bad internals,” one MAGA strategist tells us after the president canceled rallies in Kansas and Iowa over the weekend in favor of virtual appearances. “The telerallies are such a cop out and don’t do anything. In the 2022 cycle, they started doing them and candidates hated it.”
Don’t read anything into this, insists the White House. “Standing up telerallies allows him to hit EVERYWHERE with everything tightening. There will be over 20 telerallies before Election Day,” an administration official told The Sun.
More: Trump Talks to Grok. Democrats Plan to Find Out What He’s Saying.
FROM THE PENTAGON
Dems demand an accurate Iran war toll: Five House Democrats are pressing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for a full account of American casualties in the Iran war, accusing the Pentagon of intentionally misleading the public. DOD says the death toll is 22; other reports have it at 23.
“The public deserves to know the true cost of this war,” Reps. Marcy Kaptur, Susie Lee, Stephen Lynch, Raja Krishnamoorthi and Joe Morelle wrote in a letter obtained by The Sun’s Joe Gould.
More: WSJ: Top Military Admiral Briefs Trump on Iran Options
NEW ON THE WASHINGTON SUN
Senators press for answers on Ukraine aid: The Trump administration has halted money flowing to Ukraine for a program helping with police, border guards and other security personnel — money the State Department has apparently diverted to the Western Hemisphere, The Sun’s Hamed Ahmadi reports. Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) and Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) are asking why the funds were “inexplicably reprogrammed” and say the move “risks leaving Ukrainian citizens and infrastructure more vulnerable at a critical moment.”
More: Forget Banning Stock Trades. A Democratic Majority Must Tackle All Corruption.
NOT US
- The Trump Aide Trying to Stop a Blue Wave, by Ashley Parker and Michael Scherer for The Atlantic
- Trump fired him. The ‘DEI Watchlist’ Shamed him. Then came 500 job rejections. By Hannah Natanson and Andrew Ba Tran for The Washington Post
- How Bolsonaro Fled Brazil: Decoys, a Private Jet And a Friend in the White House, by Vera Bergengruen, Samantha Pearson, Ryan Dubé and Philip Wegmann for The Wall Street Journal
- A Defense Contractor Gave Their Personal AI Agent Access to a Secure Pentagon System, by Vittoria Elliott for Wired
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The newsletter was produced by Thomas Burr and Andrew Burton.
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