The U.S. and Iran appear to be slowly restoring their truce after a week of attacks by both sides — though the chance of future escalations remains high.
Qatar, the tiny American ally in the Persian Gulf, is leading mediations over the root of the latest exchange of fire: the Strait of Hormuz. Iran wants significant influence over the flow of ships through the strategic waterway — which it sees as essential leverage — but the U.S. is staunchly opposed to parts of Iran’s vision, like charging fees for traveling vessels.
Iran froze traffic through Hormuz after President Donald Trump launched a war against it in February, and the U.S. has since attempted with limited success to restore the flow of ships, most of which contain supplies of oil and gas that are crucial for the global economy. A settlement to reopen the strait was intended to be only one element of the 60-day memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington signed last month to initiate a ceasefire. Now, the difficulty of agreeing just about Hormuz reflects the shrinking chance of a larger and longer-lasting U.S.-Iranian rapprochement. The best hope, officials and analysts say, is essentially developing a bandage to avoid another flare-up.