Oil on Troubled Waters

Good afternoon. This is the Final NOTUS newsletter for April 16, 2026. You can get it in your inbox every day by signing up here — it’s free!

THE LATEST

The Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial ships, but the U.S. blockade on Iranian-linked ships “WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE,” Donald Trump announced on Truth Social this morning. The two countries are removing sea mines, he wrote in another post.

• The price of oil dropped significantly after the news was announced — though still about 25% more per barrel compared to pre-conflict — but it’s not clear how much oil will actually get through the strait. Iranian authorities said vessels must go through a “coordinated route,” and the mines the country has laid still pose a threat.

• The two-week ceasefire is set to expire on Tuesday. Trump has said there will be a deal “soon,” but has also indicated that the ceasefire could be extended.

The nations are negotiating Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, among other items, Axios reports. In exchange, the U.S. would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds, the report said. Trump has said negotiators would meet again this weekend for another round of talks, likely on Sunday.

THE HILL

The Senate unanimously passed a short-term FISA extension this morning after House Republicans couldn’t reach a deal last night for a longer extension. Majority Leader John Thune told reporters it “kind of looks like” the Senate will take the lead on a longer-term reauthorization of the surveillance law, which the president has pressured Congress for.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s skepticism of the scientific establishment showed itself today at his third in a series of hearings on Capitol Hill, NOTUS’ Paige Winfield Cunningham reports. He criticized a study that found no link between autism and use of Tylenol during pregnancy, after he and Trump last year said there’s likely a connection between the two and warned pregnant women not to take Tylenol.

• “The study is a garbage study and should be retracted,” the health secretary said in response to a question from Rep. Virginia Foxx.

• Kennedy again defended himself against accusations that his changes to vaccine recommendations fueled recent measles outbreaks. He cited an HHS initiative studying cancer vaccines and insisted that he just wants more research: “What I’ve said is vaccines should be adequately safety-tested.”

THE ADMINISTRATION

The DOJ removed a career prosecutor from leading the probe into John Brennan, the former CIA director and Trump critic, CNN reported. There was frustration within the department with how long the investigation was taking, a DOJ source told Reuters.

• The removal comes after Pam Bondi was replaced as attorney general in part due to Trump’s frustration with the lack of movement on cases against his enemies, NOTUS reported earlier this month.

THE COURTS

Big Oil scored a victory today as the Supreme Court unanimously ruled in favor of Chevron in a fight over a $745 million state court judgment. The court ruled that the environmental damage lawsuit can proceed in federal court, where judges are less likely to favor the local interests in Louisiana. The ruling could have implications for a handful of suits around the country that seek to hold oil companies accountable for environmental harm, The Washington Post reports.

AWKWARD TIMING

Thank you for reading! Today’s newsletter was produced by Matt Berman and Andrew Burton. If you liked it, please forward it to a friend. If someone shared it with you, please subscribe — it’s free! Got a tip or comments to share? Email us at finalnotus@notus.com.