Treasury Has an Internal Report Warning About the Dangers of an AI Bubble

Publicly, the Trump administration is bullish about AI. Privately, some of its analysts are weighing AI against the dotcom bust.

Scott Bessent

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent praised the largest technology firms for investing $750 billion in AI buildout this year. Ben Curtis/AP

A draft report inside the Treasury Department is set to warn of the risks posed by the artificial intelligence market, likening key aspects of it to the dotcom bubble that upended the U.S. economy when it burst in the early 2000s.

The document, the existence and contents of which have not been previously reported but was obtained by NOTUS, is a significant departure from the Trump administration’s public tone, which has focused on encouraging unrelenting investment to unlock exponential growth.

Career Treasury analysts found that AI firms are more deeply entrenched in the U.S. economy than their dotcom predecessors and pose significant risk to the entire system if financial conditions change, productivity goals are missed or various choke points stymie growth.