Speaker Mike Johnson knows how hard it is to govern with a slim majority. That could come in handy.
While the official margin for the next Congress hasn’t yet been determined — Republicans haven’t even officially won the House yet — it’s clear Republicans won’t be able to lose many of their own lawmakers on party-line votes. And Johnson’s theoretical majority just keeps getting smaller thanks to one man: President-elect Donald Trump.
“President Trump and I have talked about this multiple times for the last couple of days,” Johnson said Tuesday morning at a press conference on the Capitol steps.
“President Trump fully understands and appreciates the math here, and it’s just a numbers game,” he added.
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Johnson said that, despite the “embarrassment of riches” in terms of members who could serve in the next administration, he doesn’t expect Trump to tap any more House Republicans, though he did warn that, ultimately, that decision is up to Trump.
“Every single vote will count, because if someone gets ill or has a car accident or a late flight on their plane, then it affects the votes on the floor,” Johnson said. “He and the administration are well in tune to that.”
As of Tuesday afternoon, the House breakdown was 214-205, with 16 uncalled races. While Republicans lead the called races, Democrats are leading in a majority of the yet-to-be-determined districts.
Still, Republicans are projected to get the majority, just not by much. And Trump’s decision on Monday to nominate two House Republicans for administration positions — Rep. Elise Stefanik for U.S. ambassador to the U.N. and Rep. Mike Waltz for national security adviser — is already leaving the numbers in a tougher spot.
The chamber’s Trump appointees have to be replaced through special elections. Although Stefanik and Waltz represent strong Republican districts, the elections to replace them can take months, meaning a small number of rogue Republicans can hold up Trump’s agenda.
That was routinely a problem for the 118th Congress when Johnson seemingly never had the numbers he needed to pass bills on the floor — or even get them to the floor.
The slim majority also could cause headaches for Johnson as he attempts to keep the gavel. At the outset of the 118th, the House was paralyzed as Rep. Kevin McCarthy endured several rounds of votes to become speaker of the House — and he was working with a larger majority than the one Johnson will likely have in January.
Trump will certainly influence whether or not Johnson faces the same issues. He has publicly supported Johnson as speaker, praising him during his campaign, and Johnson joined Trump at the Palm Beach Convention Center on election night, where Trump said he was doing a “terrific job.”
Johnson told reporters Tuesday that he plans to spend the weekend with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate to “iron out details on the plans ahead.” Additionally, Trump is expected to come to Congress Wednesday morning to meet with House Republicans.
But with an already small majority getting smaller, Johnson likely won’t be able to afford to lose more than a few Republicans on any party-line vote.
Johnson mentioned that the GOP plans to use a large budget reconciliation package to address “the mess” that is the federal government.
“We will be ready on Day One,” Johnson said. “As we wind down the 118th Congress, we’ll be ready to take the ball and run full speed.”
“While we’re completing the work of this Congress, we’re shifting gears and preparing for next Congress,” Johnson said, adding that the past year laid the groundwork for the America First agenda.
The party’s leadership, with a straight face, called retaining the majority proof of their functional governance for the past two years.
“Our members have worked hard over the last two years to show what a House majority is capable of,” House Majority Whip Tom Emmer said.
But despite the leadership’s victorious tone, it’s difficult to dress the 118th Congress as a success within the House. It kicked out one speaker and took weeks to establish Johnson as the replacement. Then Republicans tried to kick Johnson out too.
There were multiple scandals within the conference, from affairs to racist tweets, and a constant delay of essential legislation, like foreign aid and government funding bills, that were only passed later with angst and infighting.
Now, as Trump and Republicans prepare for another slim House majority, they’re facing the prospect that their ambitious legislative dreams may run headfirst into a hard legislative reality: math.
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Ben T.N. Mause is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.
Reese Gorman is a reporter at NOTUS.
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