Speaker Mike Johnson is no stranger to high-stakes, high-profile, high-pressure politicking.
Less than two years ago, a group of rogue House conservatives toppled their leader and prompted Johnson’s rise from relative political obscurity to the speakership. He’s maintained his grip on the gavel after multiple attempted mutinies. And he has repeatedly muscled Donald Trump-approved legislation through his chamber despite doubters and detractors.
But with the fate of Trump’s sweeping legislative agenda now firmly in Johnson’s hands, he may be up against his biggest challenge yet.
As one senior House Republican put it, “Failure isn’t an option. We will send the bill to Trump.”
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“But,” this source added, “lots of drama.”
Now that the Senate has advanced the reconciliation bill — which is no longer named the “One Big, Beautiful Bill Act,” after a Senate point of order struck down the name over its lack of budgetary impact for reconciliation — it’s the House’s turn to consider the marquee legislation. Although the House narrowly passed a version of the measure in May, the upper chamber made changes to the bill that have infuriated both fringes of Johnson’s Republican conference.
It seemed in May like Johnson had stretched the ends of his conference to the brink of their comfort zone, convincing conservatives that the Senate would satiate their demands for spending cuts and cajoling moderates that the Senate would spare them another tough vote on Medicaid cuts.
“I have prevailed upon my Senate colleagues to please, please, please put it as close to the House product as possible,” Johnson told reporters Monday.
The Senate did not.
“They’re not going to love it,” Sen. Markwayne Mullin admitted to NOTUS on Monday. “We’re not going to love where we’re at because we don’t want to give an inch, and they don’t want to give an inch either, but somebody’s got to give.”
“No one likes to be told no, especially when you’re a kid,” Mullin added. “But when you’re an adult, it’s really bad.”
Conservatives are raging that the Senate’s bill is significantly more expensive than the House’s. Somehow, simultaneously, moderates are furious that the Senate bill includes deeper cuts to Medicaid. To finalize the reconciliation bill before Trump’s self-imposed July 4 deadline, Johnson will have to expand the realm of what seemed possible just weeks ago, convincing both factions to swallow provisions they publicly oppose.
The main issues with the Senate bill for conservative hard-liners come down to how it adds nearly $3.9 trillion to the deficit, scales back cuts to the Inflation Reduction Act’s clean energy subsidies and nixes key Medicaid provisions they support, such as barring illegal immigrants from using the government program.
“I think the commitment is to get back to the House framework,” Rep. Keith Self told reporters Monday. “That’s what everybody’s committed to. I know that’s what the speaker has been talking to the Senate majority leader about. So we’ll see what happens.”
Rep. Ralph Norman was more concise. When asked for his thoughts on the prospect of a House reconciliation vote this week, he texted NOTUS, “NOT GOOD !!”
Meanwhile, vulnerable Republicans barely accepted the House provisions that cut more than $700 billion from Medicaid. The Senate’s version cuts nearly $1 trillion and adds controversial provisions, including changes to the Medicaid provider tax.
Reps. David Valadao and Jeff Van Drew have already suggested they are prepared to vote “no” if certain Medicaid provisions remain intact.
“A lot of us in the House are concerned with what’s coming out of the Senate, and it’s coming fast,” Valadao told NOTUS on Monday afternoon. “There’s a lot of language out there and we’re trying to get through it as quickly as possible to see exactly how it impacts our districts. But there’s a lot of members who are really concerned, myself being one.”
Of course, Valadao, Van Drew and every other House Republican — with the exception of conservative Reps. Thomas Massie and Andy Harris — supported the last bill despite their concerns. Leadership is adamant they will fold again.
“I’m incredibly bearish on this getting done but who knows, maybe the WH is right and the HFC will cave,” one senior GOP aide told NOTUS. “I think there are concerns with both camps.”
But the holdouts are adding up, and those aren’t even the only two camps that leadership has to satisfy. A handful of lawmakers from wealthy blue states are also railing against Senate changes to the state and local tax deduction. The upper chamber maintains the House bill’s $40,000 deduction cap increase but shortens it from 10 years to five years.
Rep. Nick LaLota has said he is a “hard no” on that plan.
The White House is well aware there’s a delicate dynamic at play between appeasing the hard-line fiscal hawks and not losing vulnerable Republicans. It’s a seesaw Trump has helped Johnson navigate all year.
Trump has been working all weekend with the speaker and Senate Majority Leader John Thune to ensure the bill has the best shot at passing once it comes over to the House, a White House official told NOTUS. Mehmet Oz, the administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, worked the phones Monday, one member familiar with the calls told NOTUS.
In the first six months of the second Trump administration, Congress has been historically unproductive, with little more than a continuing resolution to call a legislative victory. Passing the reconciliation bill would be a signature win for Trump, Thune and Johnson, delivering on many of the GOP’s campaign promises. Leadership is dead set on getting it done — if not just to save face, to spare them a grueling four years of proving a Republican trifecta could make good on conservative priorities.
The bill extends Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, eliminates tax on tips and overtime, phases out green energy tax credits and ups funding for defense and immigration crackdowns — all generally mainstays of Republican policy. But the White House knows that the next 72 hours could be do or die.
“It’s just working with the speaker and understanding the limitations of the House,” the official said. “Both advocating on behalf of the agenda for Thune, but having some guardrails and ensuring the Senate doesn’t go too far in compromising it. It’s been a full press, and they’ve been in constant contact.”
If the House does clear the reconciliation bill, that constant contact will deserve credit. Trump’s engagement has been an indispensable part of Thune and Johnson’s ability to pass any legislation this term. Trump has leapt at opportunities to shame holdouts on Truth Social and backed primary challengers on both ends of the party’s ideological spectrum.
Trump’s screed attacking Sen. Thom Tillis’ vote Saturday against advancing reconciliation was so biting that the vulnerable North Carolinian announced he would not run for another term.
Tillis has stood by his vote, hammering the bill on the floor Sunday.
“What do I tell 663,000 people in two years, three years, when President Trump breaks his promise by pushing them off of Medicaid because the funding’s not there anymore?” Tillis said during a floor speech during a debate period.
The challenge for leadership and the White House now is that as the bill is negotiated — often in public view — they are handing Democrats more ammunition to run against it. There are hard opponents like Tillis, but even those who might ultimately vote for the bill are making it harder for their colleagues to get to “yes” with public comments.
Take Rep. Scott Perry, a vulnerable conservative who blasted the Senate’s bill on his YouTube channel last week.
“I know that if you’re looking at your electricity bills over the last couple years, they continue to go up. And under the provisions in this bill, unless changed, they’re going to continue to go up,” Perry said.
It’s clips like those and quotes calling the bill “Frankenstein” that Democratic campaign operatives are hungry to use against Republicans. They already are.
Johnson knows that the GOP criticism of the bill could hurt Republicans sell the legislation, which is already not polling well. It’s also why he told his conference to register concerns internally before going to the press or social media.
House Republicans have hardly taken that advice.
Even rank-and-file Republicans who rarely vote against GOP priorities are telling reporters they are less than enthused about this week’s vote.
“I’ll let you know when I see it,” Rep. Mark Amodei texted NOTUS about whether he’d support the bill. “Watching Medicaid stuff very close. Rural Hospitals do not lead a secure financial existence. Will be analyzing potential impacts very comprehensively.”
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Riley Rogerson and Reese Gorman are reporters at NOTUS.
Daniella Diaz and Ursula Perano, who are reporters at NOTUS, contributed to this report.
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