RIO GRANDE CITY, Tex. — Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar has won his south Texas congressional seat 11 times. But after national Republicans largely sat out many of those campaigns — and Cuellar was charged last year with bribery and acting as a foreign agent — Republicans are now projecting confidence that Cuellar won’t win his twelfth.
“South Texans are ready for change and Henry Cuellar will lose his seat next year,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Zach Bannon said in a statement to NOTUS.
With Cuellar’s trial tentatively set for Sept. 22, Republicans smell blood in the water. Cuellar, the undisputed top candidate for Democrats to hang onto the increasingly red district, will have to fend off legal challenges, corruption-related attack ads and a strong GOP opponent — if Republicans play their cards right.
Plus, Cuellar’s legal troubles present a conundrum for Democrats. Yes, they want to prevent the district from flipping, but they also would like to avoid allegations of hypocrisy as they defend Cuellar from the very attacks they leveled against convicted fraudster former Rep. George Santos.
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For Democrats, the campaign tests how far they’re willing to go to defend a well-liked but damaged incumbent in an increasingly red district. For Republicans, it’s a test of their candidate recruitment chops in the type of district with a significant Hispanic population where they’re hoping to grow their majority.
There are already two Republicans who have announced their intention to run against Cuellar in the 2026 midterm: Jay Furman, who lost to Cuellar last cycle, and former Rep. Mayra Flores, who has lost two consecutive congressional races in a different district.
Whether either of them, or someone else, can change the GOP’s fortune in the district remains to be seen. At the moment, there are hardly any signs of an electoral coup — literally. If you drive around the district, you’ll struggle to find a yard sign on a lawn or a political billboard on the highway.
But Cuellar isn’t just fighting for reelection; he’s also fighting for his freedom. And some Democratic lawmakers are questioning whether Cuellar is more motivated by currying favor with Donald Trump and Republicans — in the hopes that the Justice Department dismisses his case or that the president issues a pardon — than by smart politics.
Three Democrats speculated to NOTUS that Cuellar was more interested in the former than the latter, specifically mentioning how Cuellar voted with Republicans to pass the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act, which targets transgender athletes, and the Laken Riley Act, which cracks down on immigrants arrested or charged with certain crimes.
But whether this is normal politicking — Cuellar has broken with Democrats many times before — or something else is unclear. The truth is, his votes could just be good politics.
Trump himself has voiced rare support for the Democrat, calling Cuellar “respected.” (Trump added that Cuellar was indicted because he “wouldn’t play Crooked Joe’s Open border game.”)
Still, as far as Democrats are concerned, Cuellar is their undisputed best bet to keep the seat. Top party powerbrokers haven’t backed a primary challenger against him, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added him to their “frontline” list of vulnerable lawmakers they plan to invest in defending.
The political math bears out that strategy. The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, rates the district “R+2,” giving Republicans a slight edge. Voters in Texas’ 28th District did, after all, break for Trump by 7 percentage points in 2024. With Cuellar as the Democratic candidate, however, Cook rates the seat “Lean Democrat.”
Recent electoral history is also on Cuellar’s side. He easily won his seat in the 2024 election — even with his April 2024 indictment dangling — by more than 100,000 votes against Republican Furman.
Two separate Democrats theorized that if Cuellar were forced to resign, Democrats would be left scrambling to find a candidate with the same name identification in the district. Other than one of Cuellar’s relatives — his sister, Rosie, lost a state House race last year, while his brother, Martin, has been Webb County sheriff since 2008 — the district doesn’t have much of a Democratic bench.
Still, Democrats backing Cuellar tees up Republicans to blast them for hypocrisy.
If Democratic leadership sticks with its Cuellar strategy, it’s unlikely they’ll denounce him unless he’s actually convicted. When Cuellar was indicted in 2024, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said in a statement that he was “entitled to his day in court and the presumption of innocence throughout the legal process.”
Some Democrats, too, are frustrated by the national party strategy.
This year, Jen Ramos, a member of the State Democratic Executive Committee who is from Cuellar’s district, authored a resolution within the Texas Democratic Party condemning the congressman for breaking with the party and the federal charges against him. (The resolution was pulled in May due to legal concerns.)
“Ultimately, a generic Democrat would fare better and give us a fighting chance,” Ramos told NOTUS. “Not to mention it would reinstate trust with some of the allies and coalition groups that have already said that they are fed up with Henry Cuellar, such as the reproductive justice movement, such as the labor movement.”
“But right now, it seems like the only friend Henry has is in the DCCC,” she continued.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the official campaign arm for House Democrats, declined to comment for this story. Cuellar’s campaign also didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The NRCC hasn’t unveiled a fresh Republican candidate to take on Cuellar. And despite their apparent confidence that “Cuellar will lose his seat next year,” Furman and Flores haven’t exactly shown a tremendous ability to win.
Furman, for example, came under fire last cycle for admitting to “picking” the district to run in because it was the “worst of the worst” for border crossings, despite not being from there. He did not respond to a request for comment.
Flores has also struggled to gain traction since she briefly represented a neighboring district after winning a 2022 special election. She has since lost to Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez twice.
“The charges against Congressman Cuellar are extremely serious, and Texas’ 28th District is ready for new, Republican leadership,” Flores said in a statement.
There are a few other potential candidates reportedly looking at the district. Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina is widely considered an attractive GOP candidate, given his district bona fides and that he switched parties from Democrat to Republican in Dec. 2024. State Rep. Ryan Guillen, who also switched parties in 2021, is also weighing a bid.
“Instead of fighting for South Texas, out of touch Democrat Henry Cuellar lined his own pockets while pushing a far-left agenda to raise taxes and take away jobs,” Bannon, the NRCC spokesperson, told NOTUS.
But another factor hanging over the race is a mid-decade redistricting effort. Republicans are looking at drawing five additional GOP seats in Texas. But that could easily backfire and lead to more Democratic gains in a wave election.
A Democratic strategist familiar with the race told NOTUS they are unfazed, saying they are “decently optimistic” Cuellar can win even if the district is “Trump plus 10.”
“If Henry Cuellar is on next year, I think he’s going to win because he just continually outruns the top of the ticket in that district,” this strategist said. “He’s really well known and well beloved.”
“And I don’t think people necessarily buy into the national narrative — real or not,” they continued.
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