If the finger-pointing already going on over a potential government shutdown next month is any indication, funding past the current expiration on March 14 looks doomed.
Because, on Capitol Hill, the blame game is on.
“It’s up to the Democrats,” Republican appropriator Sen. John Kennedy told NOTUS. “If they want to shut it down, they can.”
“They’re in charge!” Democratic appropriator Sen. Chris Murphy responded.
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“You asked to govern government? Govern,” Murphy said of Republicans. “Everybody knows [Elon] Musk wants the government to burn down, everybody knows he wants to shut down, and everybody knows Republicans are in charge.”
With just over two weeks until the shutdown deadline, lawmakers are confronting a very real prospect that government funding will run out. Although top appropriators have worked to hammer out a top line spending deal for weeks, they’ve failed to produce an agreement, let alone the full slate of regular appropriations bills that House Speaker Mike Johnson has long promised. It’s an early test for Republicans, who do control the government — but only barely have the House.
But if there’s one bit of hope that may avert a shutdown, it’s that lawmakers are so far from an actual agreement that yet another continuing resolution looks likely. That is, if lawmakers can even agree on that.
In interviews with NOTUS, GOP lawmakers predicted they would fall back on a stopgap spending bill to keep funding levels the same through the rest of the fiscal year. But they openly admitted that their own party can’t pass funding bills without Democrats, who are demanding assurances that President Donald Trump will spend congressionally appropriated funds instead of simply ignoring laws.
Republicans reject that demand, saying Trump would never sign a law limiting his own power, anyway. But short of some compromise, the votes aren’t yet there to keep the government open, even if lawmakers on both sides want to avoid a shutdown.
In the meantime, the House GOP is embroiled in an internal fight to advance a budget resolution to tee up a different bill, which appropriators have complained is commandeering leadership’s attention as the clock unwinds toward shutdown-o-clock.
“Part of the strain is we’re trying to write a very partisan reconciliation package at the same time we’re writing a bipartisan appropriations date,” House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole told reporters. “That’s why this would have always been better if it had been done in December, when it should have been.”
It’s true that the House did not pass a full appropriations package as Cole intended in December. Instead, Musk almost single handedly crushed the spending measure by repeatedly tweeting out in opposition to it — his complaints riddled with factual errors and threats to unseat lawmakers who might vote for the legislation — before lawmakers were set to consider it.
This time, Musk is still a major hangup. He’s called for a government shutdown, arguing disruption would be better than Congress continuing to spend money. And his moves to block congressionally appropriated funds, turning off Treasury payments for programs he doesn’t like, are giving Democrats a reason not to believe any GOP assurances about this new spending bill.
If the richest man in the world can unilaterally block the laws Congress passes, Democrats ask, why even negotiate?
But Republicans know they need Democrats, especially in the House, where a decent chunk of the GOP conference is highly reluctant to support government spending.
“We won’t get a CR done with just the Republican conference. He’s going to have to bring in Democrats,” Rep. Troy Nehls said of Johnson on Tuesday.
When asked why Republicans hadn’t managed to pass spending bills in the House despite talking about regular order, Nehls offered a simple explanation: “We’re kind of interesting beings,” he said. “Members of Congress are interesting people.”
Democrats have helped Johnson keep the government funded throughout his speakership, sometimes giving him more votes than his own party. They have viewed avoiding shutdowns as too important to use the deadlines for partisan leverage in the past. But now, faced with Musk starving federal agencies, some Democrats think they have to play hardball.
“If they want to ensure that the funding that we appropriate actually gets spent the way Congress says it should be, our support would be much more likely,” said Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a Democratic member of the Appropriations Committee.
She pointed out that Republicans control the government — “they have the ability to shut the government down or not, and the ball is in their court” — and ultimately bear responsibility.
It’s just unclear how many Democrats have a stomach for a protracted fight.
Rep. Marcy Kaptur, an Ohio Democrat and a senior member of the appropriations panel, said Tuesday that she expects a stopgap funding bill would ultimately pass, though she hadn’t decided if she would vote for such a bill. It was abundantly clear that Kaptur doesn’t like shutdowns.
“I can’t have the government shut down,” she told NOTUS. “That would be horrible.”
Kaptur isn’t just thinking about Musk’s moves to block spending. The Republican agenda, which GOP leaders hope to pass along partisan lines later this year, is looming large in her mind during the spending talks, too.
“They’re going to give gigantic tax breaks to the wealthy,” she said. “The super wealthy will get tens of millions of dollars refunded to them.”
Senate Majority Leader John Thune acknowledged that lawmakers are “running out of time” to strike a deal.
“We’ve got a short window to work with,” he told Politico. “At this point, all options are on the table.”
In pursuit of clarity, Johnson met with Republicans on the Appropriations Committee Tuesday afternoon. Cole told NOTUS he hoped to hammer out the path forward, but multiple lawmakers left the meeting without clear guidance. Johnson is slated to meet with Cole and Thune Wednesday morning.
But as leaders try to make progress privately, lawmakers are publicly feeling the time crunch.
“I’m always apprehensive when we get this close,” Republican appropriator Rep. Chuck Edwards told NOTUS.
“Hopefully we’ll get to the point that we don’t have to come down to just two or three weeks away,” he continued, 18 days before the funding deadline.
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Riley Rogerson and Haley Byrd Wilt are reporters at NOTUS.
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