The Department of Defense is abruptly shutting down a satellite program that meteorologists say is crucial to hurricane forecasting — just as what’s expected to be an “above-normal” Atlantic hurricane season is picking up.
These particular satellites, part of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, provide hurricane forecasters with real-time imagery and data. James Franklin, who served as the National Hurricane Center chief until 2017, said that information is especially important for monitoring storms at night.
“Things are being taken away all across the forecasting enterprise. This particular one is going to result in delays in the recognition from [the National Hurricane Center] that storms are strengthening,” Franklin told NOTUS. “It’ll result in delays in forecasts of rapid intensification, because often, the first clue that you’re going to have rapid intensification is this imagery.”
Without the kinds of imagery these satellites provide, hurricane forecasters could miss out on “six, eight, 10 hours” of an early warning about dangerous storms and hurricanes that strengthened overnight, Franklin said.
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In response to questions about the sudden decommissioning, DOD referred NOTUS to the Air Force, which did not respond to a request for comment by publication deadline. The planned decommissions were first reported by Miami hurricane expert Michael Lowry, who said those satellites provide “roughly half of all microwave satellite scans to forecasters.”
A National Weather Service spokesperson said these particular satellites were expected to decommission eventually, but usually, old and new satellites collect redundant data until the older one is decommissioned.
“We’re in that process with this,” the spokesperson told NOTUS.
As of Wednesday afternoon the spokesperson couldn’t give a definitive answer on whether the new satellites that will collect that key hurricane imagery were functional: “That’s what I’m trying to find out.”
When asked if the DOD’s termination came as a surprise to forecasters at NWS, the spokesperson said, “I don’t think I can characterize it in any way. That’s not my place.”
Some meteorologists told NOTUS they were shocked the military was discontinuing the satellites so abruptly, without clear or public communication with weather agencies beforehand. Satellite decommissions are typically done after satellites that collect similar data appear to be fully operational.
“These planned satellite feeds and new satellite starts are done years and years in advance, and you have these staged transitions. The only thing that I’ve seen close to this is when you have some sort of technical failure,” Rick Spinrad, a former NOAA administrator, told NOTUS.
Spinrad and other experts told NOTUS it’s unlikely the satellite data collection is due to technical failure because a whole set of satellites is being discontinued, not just one.
“I’ve never seen anything like this. It surprises me,” Spinrad said. “I would have probably known about something happening before I even left six months ago, because that sort of six-month window is the one where you start having checkpoints on things that you want to do, to make sure everything’s in line for a smooth transition.”
The U.S. Space Force launched a satellite that collects similar data in April 2024, and announced two months ago that the satellite had passed a trial period and reached “initial operational capability.”
But the soon-to-be-decommissioned satellites’ data, not that new one, is what’s still used in major forecasting models, meteorologist Richard Rood told NOTUS.
“I have not seen it already being in any model,” he said of the data from the new satellite. Though, unlike some other meteorologists’ concerns about hurricane tracking ability, he had minimal concerns about the data loss.
“From a global forecast model perspective, I do not expect a big impact from this,” he said.
Spinrad said that the sudden announcement was a stark departure from the federal government’s usual interdepartmental communication on weather monitoring.
“It’s extraordinary. One of the things that all of us in DOD — and I used to be in DOD — and NOAA were so proud of was the close collaboration and coordination,” Spinrad said.
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Claire Heddles and Emily Kennard are NOTUS reporters and Allbritton Journalism Institute fellows.
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