Republicans in tight races are trying to rekindle some old magic: hammering Democrats on transgender policy and praying a message that worked so well in the 2024 election can save them this November.
The problem is that even if their attack is the same, a whole lot else has changed.
In short, the public’s perception of each party on transgender issues has shifted. Republicans’ former economic subtext is no longer helpful, and — perhaps most significantly — the Democratic response has undergone an overhaul, with some candidates and incumbents adopting anti-trans rhetoric in key races. Taken together, it’s created a radically different backdrop for the deluge of anti-trans attacks — one that threatens to undermine their effectiveness.
“There’s been a sea change over the past two years,” said Lanae Erickson, the senior vice president for social policy, education and politics for the moderate Democratic group Third Way. “And there’s a lot more space for Democrats to be able to say things out loud than they could have two years ago, without backlash.”
Trending
Democrats, by their own admission, were caught flat-footed on trans issues in 2024. And many party strategists say the issue still has enough resonance with voters that Democratic candidates can’t simply ignore the attacks.
But even conservative groups are warning that the GOP’s focus on transgender issues isn’t landing with voters the same way it did in 2024, when the attacks were often paired with a positive economic message.
The conservative American Principles Project, which has pushed Republicans to use anti-trans messaging, said in a memo released earlier this month that Republicans could not solely rely on trans issues to win elections: “Pressing the advantage on these issues alone, while important, may not be sufficient.”
APP president Terry Schilling told The Washington Sun that the memo is not meant to deter Republicans from using anti-trans messaging. “This is like the one area where the Republicans have a clear contrast to go on offense.”
The problem, Schilling said, is that Republicans don’t have an economic pitch to pair with their culture message.
“Here’s where we’re weakest: Voters are still hung up about $5 a gallon gas, about the war in Iran,” Schilling said.
Voters now favor Democrats when it comes to handling the economy, according to some polls. That’s a turnaround from 2024, when the public’s favorable view of Trump’s economic agenda was crucial to his election.
Even the party’s most well-known ad on trans issues in the last election — a spot that accused then-Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris of being for “they/them” instead of the average American voter — also touted Trump’s plan to cut taxes for the middle class.
But the economic portion of the argument has been lost this year.
“They missed too much of the rest of the ad,” said one Republican strategist involved in Trump’s 2024 campaign, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “The rest of the ad was about that President Trump is going to fight like hell to turn around the economy.”
The party’s use of so many ads that focus on trans issues instead of the economy, the strategist added, risks making it look as if the GOP is the party fixated on the trans community instead of the day-to-day cost of living.
“We appear to have misplaced priorities because we are leaning into issues that voters don’t think about every day,” they said.
A Fox News poll released in April found that 56% of Americans now say Democrats do a better job when it comes to transgender issues, compared to 43% who said they thought Republicans do. And a June poll by the LGBTQ advocacy group GLAAD found that 65% of registered voters “believe politicians are often using transgender issues as a distraction from more important priorities.”
Republicans are trying to defend slim majorities in the House and Senate this year in what even Republicans acknowledge is a challenging political climate. Democrats have tried to boost their chances by distancing themselves from some of the party’s most unpopular positions in 2024, including on transgender policy.
Lindsay James, who’s running for a House seat in Iowa, said in an ad: “We need common sense rules to keep sports fair for boys and for girls,” while Josh Turek, the Democratic Senate candidate in Iowa and a former paralympian, told The New York Times, “I don’t believe that biological males should compete against females in sports.”
In Ohio, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton told The Toledo Blade, “I do not support boys in girls’ sports.” And the Democratic Senate candidate in Texas, James Talarico, told Fox News that he opposed “trans athletes playing in girls’ sports if it endangers safety or fairness,” and that he would “absolutely” vote for a bill to ban gender-affirming surgeries for minors. (These types of surgeries are rarely performed on minors.)
Ohio Senate candidate Sherrod Brown has run his own response ad belittling Republicans’ focus on trans issues. And Sarah Trone-Garriott, a House candidate in Iowa, has explicitly rebutted other Democrats in her own ads.
“I approve this message because politicians have become too extreme on these issues, and I’ll always put kids and families first,” Trone-Garriott says in one ad.
A Democratic strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly, told The Sun the breakthrough for Democrats using more anti-trans language came last year, when Rob Sand, now the Democratic nominee for governor in Iowa, was asked by a conservative radio host whether he thought transgender girls belonged in girls’ sports. Sand responded with a simple “no.” The strategist said the moment immediately circulated among party political strategists.
“Rob Sand just did it, and it was fine,” the strategist said. “There’s power in numbers, and all you have to do is tell these people that you have the majority opinion. And then you can just say it.”
Democratic strategists have said the party has broadly concluded that the issue is enough of a concern to voters that candidates can’t ignore it, especially in red states and districts. They also say the larger Democratic ecosystem has given candidates more space to talk about the issue without as much backlash from local and state LGBTQ advocates, Democratic allies and even campaign staffers.
“All of these guys are operating with empathy and sympathy for the trans community and understand they must be protected from discrimination and violence,” the second strategist said.
But, the strategist added, “they have to talk honestly about difficult questions. And I think you’ve seen a willingness from some of the groups, when in the past you might not have seen it as much, to give people in the red states more space and grace to have these conversations. Even if it’s not 100% the ideal ACLU position on trans issues.”
When The Washington Sun asked the American Civil Liberties Union to respond to this quote, the organization did not condemn candidates who have taken a turn on trans issues in their campaigns.
“The ACLU is a nonpartisan organization that does not endorse candidates for office. We do believe in — and the research supports‚ an approach that allows pro-equality candidates to communicate clearly to voters in a way that upholds their principles while neither sacrificing trans people’s dignity nor losing sight of the core economic issues far more likely to decide their electoral fate,” said Kris Hayashi, the group’s campaign director for transgender rights, in a statement.
The party’s approach has not been uniform: While some have reiterated their support for trans people, other lawmakers have broken with the caucus and voted in favor of anti-trans legislation. Trans activists and families with trans children have condemned Democrats for distancing themselves from the community.
Still, the party has continued to have conversations around how it can best address these issues this cycle.
In April, the centrist New Democrat Coalition invited Third Way and tThe Trevor Project, an LGBTQ youth advocacy group, to advise House Democrats on how to address trans issues, according to two sources familiar with the matter and one House Democrat who attended the session.
“Everyone has been crystal clear that it is simply unacceptable to use the Republican framing that ‘boys should not play in girls’ sports’ because you’re calling trans girls ‘boys.’ It’s deeply disrespectful and it’s actively harmful,” the House Democrat told The Washington Sun.
That’s why, the House Democrat said, Democrats have been “blindsided” by ads like Ohio Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s.
“Here’s the truth: I voted with Republicans to keep transgender ideology out of our schools because parents know what’s best for their kids, and boys should not play in girls’ sports,” Kaptur, who is in one of the most competitive House races in the country, said in one ad.
The ad was denounced by the Lucas County Stonewall Democrats, a local LGBTQ group, which said that Kaptur is “against the LGBTQIA+ community.” Though there was no mention that Kaptur’s record says otherwise: She voted against Republicans and in favor of trans athletes being able to participate in female sports just last year.
But Democrats in Republican-leaning districts are under pressure to respond. One Democratic strategist estimated that fully half of the GOP’s messaging this year has been around transgender issues — about the same time they’ve given the economy, data centers, immigration and crime put together.
Democrats involved in efforts to combat the GOP’s trans message say they’re hopeful that their strategy is already working — and if so, the issue won’t be so prevalent in future races.
“I hope we never have an election cycle like this again,” Third Way’s Erickson said.
Authors
