Republican Matt Van Epps is projected to narrowly defeat Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn in a special House election Tuesday, a closer-than-expected result in a deep-red Tennessee district that suggests Republicans face a challenging political environment heading into next year’s midterm elections.
Van Epps led Behn by more than 7 percentage points with about two-thirds of the vote tallied, a 15-point swing from President Donald Trump’s victory in the district last year. His victory means Republicans avoided a political catastrophe, staving off a defeat that would likely have sent panic through the House GOP.
But the modest victory in such a red district will likely spark additional concern among Republicans that they are on track for big losses next year, especially after an electoral wipeout last month in a pair of high-profile gubernatorial races.
To hold their House majority next year, Republican candidates will have to win districts that are much less conservative than the 7th District.
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“What happened tonight in Tennessee makes it clear: Democrats are on offense and Republicans are on the ropes,” said Ken Martin, chair of the Democratic National Committee. “Aftyn Behn’s overperformance in this Trump +22 district is historic and a flashing warning sign for Republicans heading into the midterms.”
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For Democrats, Tuesday’s result will embolden a party already planning to target districts once thought to be safely Republican, confident that an energized liberal base and growing political backlash to President Donald Trump can power them to big victories. But some party strategists still caution that the political environment could shift between now and November, and that an oddly timed special election in early December is not a true representation of how voters feel more broadly.
The deep-red district, which is mainly rural but contains a section of Nashville, was formerly represented by Mark Green, who announced in June that he would retire from Congress.
The special election was largely overlooked nationally until about a month ago. But a growing sense that the low-turnout race was tilting in Democrats’ favor vaulted it into the spotlight, attracting attention from Republican and Democratic leaders.
The Cook Political Report shifted on Nov. 13 its rating of the seat from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.” Well-known Democrats like former Vice President Kamala Harris, Rep. Jasmine Crockett and Martin and also made trips to Tennessee to help Behn’s campaign.
Republicans also took notice of the shifting numbers. Speaker Mike Johnson traveled to Franklin, Tennessee, to join Van Epps at a rally Monday morning. Trump, whom Johnson telephoned in during the rally, told voters that “we have to win this seat” in part because Johnson only has a “majority of three” in the House.
The president was quick to congratulate Van Epps on Tuesday night, seeking to cast the victory as a “BIG” win for Republicans.
“Congratulations to Matt Van Epps on his BIG Congressional WIN in the Great State of Tennessee,” he wrote on Truth Social. “The Radical Left Democrats threw everything at him, including Millions of Dollars. Another great night for the Republican Party!!!”
Steve Hickey, chair of the Williamson County Republican Party, told NOTUS that he’s “very happy” about Johnson and Trump’s involvement in the final days of Van Epps’ campaign and didn’t think it’s a cause for concern.
“I think it just means that they want to make sure that Matt has the support that he needs for this election,” Hickey said. “I know there’s probably a tendency to want to say, ‘Oh my gosh. It means that Matt’s in trouble,’ and I don’t think that’s it at all. I think they probably would have come in and provided that support regardless.”
Both sides also responded with millions of dollars in ads, hoping to drum up enthusiasm for the race.
Throughout her campaign, Behn mainly focused on health care and affordability, while also running on releasing the Epstein files. Van Epps, who has served with the Tennessee National Guard for eight years, focused on border security, improving the economy and increasing support for veterans.
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