A memo circulating among Senate Republicans argues that if former Sen. John Sununu is the nominee for New Hampshire’s Senate seat, the race would shift from “competitive to a top pickup opportunity” for the GOP.
Republicans are also underscoring former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown’s vulnerability in the race, hoping to avoid a messy primary. Brown, who lost to Jeanne Shaheen in 2014, jumped into the race for the Republican nomination earlier this year.
Senate Republican leadership has been working to recruit Sununu since it was clear his brother, former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, wasn’t going to run. Majority Leader John Thune has led the charge in recruiting Sununu to run, and placed the first call to him gauging his interest earlier this year, a source familiar with the matter told NOTUS. Thune, along with former Senate Leadership Fund Chair Cory Gardner, both urged him to enter the race, multiple sources said.
The memo, dated Oct. 15 and obtained by NOTUS, looks at an aggregation of public polling data and is being circulated among Senate Republicans. It comes as Sununu is expected to launch his candidacy as soon as this week. It lays out the public surveys that show Sununu within striking distance of Rep. Pappas, the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, in the race to replace retiring Sen. Shaheen.
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The memo cites five public surveys: an 1892 poll, a Coeffecient poll, a University of New Hampshire poll and another Coeffecient poll. That polling found Sununu down by, at most, six percentage points — in the UNH poll — and just two points in the 1892 poll.
“John Sununu is consistently in a statistical tie with Chris Pappas, and is uniquely positioned to win,” the memo reads.
On the flip side, the memo contrasts Sununu’s numbers with Brown’s, who is down by double digits to Pappas.
“Scott Brown is trailing Pappas by double digits in every poll and underperforming the generic Republican by -6.5,” the memo reads. Sununu also beat Brown in each poll. In the first Coefficient poll, he’s up 17 percentage points in the primary on Brown, and in the University of New Hampshire poll Sununu is up 23 percentage points on Brown.
“Bottom line: the data confirms John Sununu is THE candidate that makes New Hampshire most competitive for Senate Republicans in 2026,” the memo concludes.
In a statement, Brown sought to tout his conservative credentials, saying that, “While John was supporting John Kasich in 2016, I was campaigning with Donald Trump.”
“Anyone who thinks that a never Trump, corporate lobbyist who hasn’t won an election in a quarter century will resonate with today’s GOP primary voters is living in a different universe,” Brown said.
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