Democrats are bullish about their chances to unseat Pennsylvania Rep. Scott Perry in a contest that could ultimately decide the balance of power in the House of Representatives.
Democratic strategists say that 2026 could provide the perfect opportunity to oust Perry, who’s held the seat since 2013. The former chair of the House Freedom Caucus is running in a redrawn, more competitive district. Democrats plan to nominate Janelle Stelson, a former local news anchor who ran against Perry in 2024. Stelson lost the race by about 1 percentage point, according to the Associated Press.
Eli Cousin, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told NOTUS that Perry’s race is one that the committee feels optimistic about.
“We will flip this seat because we have a battle-tested candidate and independent voice in Janelle Stelson, while Republicans are stuck with an extreme and deeply unpopular incumbent in Scott Perry,” Cousin said.
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But J.J. Balaban, Stelson’s admaker, told NOTUS that he expects the current political conditions, including continued frustration with high prices, hesitation about President Donald Trump’s war with Iran and general blowback against the party in power, to make the difference for Stelson.
Balaban said that Stelson’s team is planning to hammer Perry on a number of affordability issues, including his vote in November against extending Affordable Care Act subsidies for three years. Perry was the only vulnerable Republican in the Pennsylvania delegation to oppose the measure, making him a more attractive target for Democrats, Balaban added.
“He’s not just to the right of every Democrat in Pennsylvania, but he’s to the right of every Republican in Pennsylvania,” Balaban said. “From a national perspective, that is what makes the race kind of distinctive. This is a Freedom Caucus member who is really voting in the hard-right line and running for reelection.”
But Perry told NOTUS on Wednesday he isn’t nervous. He said he’s confident about how his voting record will be viewed in the district.
“I fight for my district. The people that live there know that we’re going to continue to try and lower costs and make America and the district more free, make sure that there are more jobs there, make sure it’s safer,” Perry said. “I’m going to make the case that I continue to fight for them, and that I’ve already been successful.”
Matt Benyon, a spokesperson for Perry’s campaign, added that Perry’s camp is in a better position this cycle than they were in 2024. One big advantage is cash: Stelson was able to start running TV ads a month and a half ahead of Perry in the last contest, and this time, Perry’s caught up, Benyon said.
“We’re in a much stronger financial position to both fight back as well as be on the offensive earlier than we were last cycle,” Benyon told NOTUS. “He’s in a better position to get on the airwaves earlier than he was two years ago.”
And Republican strategists say they expect Democrats will have less to spend than they did in the last cycle.
“Perry has never been a top fundraiser,” Christopher Nicholas, a Republican consultant in Pennsylvania who is not working on Perry’s race, told NOTUS. “Stelson is kind of the hot candidate du jour again, having come so close last time. But she has to battle the sophomore slump that you find with candidates who run again.”
Democrats plan to link Perry to the Trump administration’s most unpopular positions under the “affordability” umbrella. Balaban said that Stelson’s campaign will center Perry’s support for the administration’s $20 billion financial package for Argentina in November, for example.
“In 2024, [Stelson] didn’t bear any real responsibility for the economy under Joe Biden. And yet, clearly that was kind of an undercurrent of some of the Republican messaging,” Balaban said. “Now [Perry’s] in a situation where he’s supporting the status quo, right? Because Republicans have a trifecta and are very clearly responsible for how things are going today.”
Stelson told NOTUS that she’s heard concerns about Perry’s voting record on cost-of-living issues repeatedly on the campaign trail.
“He supports the tariff taxes that are driving up costs on everything from groceries to housing, he said that lowering costs by extending the ACA healthcare credits would be a ‘colossal mistake,’” Stelson said in a statement. “Every day voters are telling me they are sick of this career politician who is making their lives impossible to afford.”
Benyon said Perry recognizes that the district is purple and is prepared to defend his record. He pointed to Perry’s support for legislation eliminating taxes on tips and notes he plans to highlight his perspective as a veteran.
“It’s a purple district, no doubt about it,” Benyon said. “The congressman recognizes that. I think it’s one of the reasons why he’s not going to get caught off guard, he’s not getting caught by surprise, and he’s gearing up for a serious reelection campaign.”
Nicholas told NOTUS that he doesn’t think that Stelson’s attacks on Perry’s record will resonate with voters, even in the moderate district. He noted that people have voted for Perry time and time again, even following some of his most controversial decisions, including his opposition to certifying President Joe Biden’s win after the 2020 election.
“Anytime you’re running against an incumbent, you want to make everything about their behavior, their votes, their conduct, et cetera,” Nicholas said. “They are focused on some of the things around January 6 that Perry has done. What I have said is, look, he’s won reelection, not once, but twice since then.”
Democrats are also hopeful that Stelson’s bid will be buoyed by Gov. Josh Shapiro’s name at the top of the ticket. The popular governor is expected to boost independent and Democratic turnout.
“Ultimately, Janelle lost because Harris underperformed what we hoped,” Balaban said about the 2024 race, referring to Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee. “This time, not only do you have Trump being significantly less popular than he was, but Trump’s not going to be on the ballot. Who’s going to be leading the ticket is Josh Shapiro.”
But Nicholas said Republicans don’t expect that to be an issue come November. Midterm headwinds haven’t proven a problem for Perry in the past, and neither has Shapiro’s name recognition, he added.
He noted that Shapiro won by double digits in 2022 and that Perry survived. “Is this going to present a new challenge for Perry? The Democrats think so. Most Republicans, including myself, don’t.”
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