In one of the most high-profile Senate races in the country, the leading candidate has been noticeably absent.
Texas Republicans for days attacked state Rep. James Talarico for leaving the campaign trail for nine days, which Talarico’s team said was because he was recovering from the flu.
On Friday, videos of Talarico walking and shaking hands with people appeared on social media. His campaign spokesperson JT Ennis told The Washington Sun in a statement that “James Talarico is back on the campaign trail talking to voters at Austin City Limits.”
Talarico is expected to do additional campaigning this weekend, as well as appear on a CNN town hall Oct. 14.
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Despite the absence from the trail, Talarico appears to be giving Democrats their best shot in a generation to win a statewide race in Texas — something they haven’t done since 1994. Less than four weeks out from Election Day, Democrats are bullish about flipping the seat, buoyed by national attention, polling that shows Talarico leading state Attorney General Ken Paxton by roughly 5 percentage points, and Talarico’s staggering most-recent fundraising numbers: $31.6 million to Paxton’s $18 million.
If Texas were to elect a Democratic senator, it would help Democrats win back the majority in the Senate and change the fabric of the 2028 presidential election.
“We’ve got a cartoonishly corrupt Republican nominee in Ken Paxton, we’ve got a historically unpopular president in Donald Trump, and we’ve got a great communicator and fundraiser in James Talarico,” said Luke Warford, founding partner of the Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund, a group in Texas aimed at building Democratic infrastructure. “Those three things add up to mean that Democrats might actually win Texas for the first time in a generation this year.”
One Democratic operative working on Senate races called the situation for the Senate election in Texas unique for this cycle, saying the stars might align for Democrats to flip the seat.
“It’s truly a perfect storm of conditions. You have one of the worst Republican candidates in the country, the most unpopular Republican Senate candidate in Texas history,” the operative said. “James Talarico is an extraordinary candidate. He is very compelling on the stump. He’s a great fundraiser. He speaks to people in a language that sounds familiar to them, on a religious level and because he’s a very bipartisan guy.”
Paxton’s being hit with a drip-drip-drip of leaked audio published in different publications revealing his criticism of Trump’s administration, as well as blaming the Republican D.C. establishment for issues in his Senate campaign.
His issues run back before the leaked meeting. In 2023, he was impeached on more than a dozen articles, including bribery, unfitness for office and obstruction of justice, and was acquitted by the state Senate in a high-profile trial. Since then, he’s faced a messy public divorce from state Sen. Angela Paxton, though she has urged voters to cast their ballots for the Republican ticket.
“[What is happening with Paxton] is a fucking total disaster,” a Republican strategist told The Washington Sun. “Talarico will likely be there for six years. He’ll be a national star. He’s going to help build the Democratic Party. He’s going to recruit candidates. He’s going to build the most massive donor file a Democrat in Texas has ever had. It is a disaster from 19 different angles.”
Paxton’s had immense help from outside fundraising groups, but there’s still concern from Republicans it won’t be enough to help him win. One sign of how much trouble he could be in may be the repeated trips to the state from his most prominent surrogate, President Donald Trump. Earlier this week the president took his third trip to Texas this cycle, and Vice President JD Vance is expected to go on Tuesday.
“I wouldn’t say we’re concerned [about winning],” said a Republican aide close to the Paxton campaign. “In the last two and a half weeks or so, where the cavalry has kind of arrived for him, I think you’re starting to see that movement, and we feel that [Paxton is] in a pretty good spot to kind of bring those undecideds that are, you know, leaning Republicans back home to him and push him over the top.”
The last time the state had such a tight race was October 2018. Texas’ U.S. Senate race had the nation’s attention for a midterm year in President Donald Trump’s first term. Polls showed Sen. Ted Cruz leading then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke by mid-to-high single digits, but on Election Day the Republican incumbent won by just 2.6 percentage points, the closest Texas Senate race in decades. (Cruz beat Rep. Colin Allred in a presidential election year by 9 percentage points.)
For years, Democrats have pointed to those results as proof the state was within reach.
The race is on track to become the most expensive Senate contest in history, a sign of how competitive both parties expect it to be in the final stretch. According to the media tracking firm AdImpact, ad spending in the general election has reached $255 million as of Friday, making it one of the most expensive Senate races in history.
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