‘You Can’t Deny It’: Democratic Turnout Has Surged in 2026

The just concluded primary season made at least one thing resoundingly clear: Democrats are seeing an explosion in voter turnout.

Propelled by a surge in competitive elections and an engaged base, Senate Democratic primaries across the country saw huge spikes in voters this year, according to an analysis of voter participation data from The Washington Sun.

Turnout in these contests rose in 26 of the 30 states that held a Democratic primary this year and were included in the study, compared to their most recent previous race in 2022 or 2024. Five states saw their turnout more than double, while another nine states saw increases of more than 50%.

Across all 30 states, the median increase was about 45% — a figure significant enough that analysts say it’s proof of a national trend rippling through the Democratic Party’s primaries.

“It’s not like just an occasional state where you had this surge in enthusiasm,” said John Couvillon, a Republican pollster who tracks turnout data across the country. “It is occurring regularly and often enough that you can’t deny it.”

Maine saw the largest increase, nearly quadrupling its turnout from its 2024 Senate Democratic primary, from about 55,000 votes to 216,000 votes. That spike in isolation is not surprising: The state’s 2024 election was not competitive while the primary race this year featured a contentious battle between Graham Platner and Gov. Janet Mills.

But other states also showed large surges, including Texas (140% increase), Rhode Island (117%), Minnesota (116%) and South Carolina (113%). The increases happened in red and blue states alike, and included some of this year’s top general election battlegrounds, including Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina.

A surge in voter participation isn’t uncommon for a party in the years following a loss in the presidential election — Democrats saw a turnout increase in many of its 2018 primaries during President Donald Trump’s first midterm election. But Democratic strategists say they’re encouraged by the development nonetheless, especially after what many consider a muted initial reaction to Trump’s 2024 victory.

“What you’ve seen over the last three or four months is that delayed response,” said Guy Cecil, a former executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “More Democrats turning out to vote. More Democrats volunteering. More Democrats participating in the process.”

For the analysis, The Sun compared turnout in 30 Democratic Senate primaries this year to the last Democratic Senate primaries in the state in either 2024 or 2022. The analysis did not include Delaware or South Dakota, which both canceled their Democratic Senate primaries in 2022, or Virginia, which canceled its Senate Democratic primary this year.

The analysis also does not include Alaska, which does not have partisan primaries, or Louisiana, which started holding partisan primaries only this year.

Senate Democrats had more competitive primaries this year than any time in recent memory, featuring battles between the party’s progressive and establishment factions in states like Michigan, Minnesota, Texas and Iowa.

Those battles — which drew millions of dollars in spending and widespread media attention — very likely drove some of the turnout increase, strategists say. Some Republicans contend that intraparty competition is a sign of a divided party and portends poorly for Democrats in November.

“The Democratic Socialists of America have skewed Democrats’ primary turnout,” said Bernadette Breslin, spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Democratic turnout did drop in some states featuring a Senate race this year. That includes Florida, which saw an 18% decline despite a competitive contest. Democrats have suffered difficult defeats in the former battleground state in the Trump era, and Republicans have made significant registration gains that have helped turn the state into a conservative stronghold.

Democratic turnout also dropped in Kansas, which features a competitive race this year. But the state’s comparison is also skewed by a 2022 vote on an abortion amendment to the state’s constitution, which was held on the same day as the state’s Senate primary.

Democratic strategists acknowledge that high primary turnout does not guarantee victories in a general election. But they say the uniform rise in participation is a good indication of voter enthusiasm, which could add as many as a few percentage points to the Democratic candidates’ performance in November.

It’s also not the only metric suggesting the party is in for a strong midterm election.

“When you look at primary turnout and you combine that with special election performance and an increasing gap in the generic ballot, all of these things point to a significant turnout advantage for Democrats,” Cecil said.

Some Senate Democratic primaries saw turnout spikes this year even though they did not feature a competitive race. North Carolina’s primary was mostly ceremonial, featuring an overwhelming favorite in former Gov. Roy Cooper, but still saw a 34% rise in votes compared to the state’s 2022 primary.

Ohio, meanwhile, saw a 55% turnout increase relative to 2024, even though former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown ran as the overwhelming favorite.

Couvillon, the Republican pollster, said his own tracking shows that more Democrats turned out than Republicans in a handful of important battleground states this year, including Wisconsin, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire. It is a warning sign for his party.

“Unless you are in a district that is 55% or more Trump, I don’t think a Republican candidate or incumbent can feel entirely secure,” he said. “Because you have this triple whammy of some Republican voters defecting, independents are showing preference for Democrats, and then of course, there’s elevated Democratic enthusiasm.”