Democrats are using the U.S.-Canada trade dispute as an opportunity to appeal to voters and industries that have direct economic ties to Canada in competitive districts.
The trade war has translated into higher costs that are front of mind for voters. And it has put Republicans on the defensive — at times they have even taken the rare step of breaking with President Donald Trump over his pursuit of the tariffs.
“If you want somebody that’s going to fight to repair the relationship with Ontario and Quebec, my campaign is for you,” Democratic candidate Blake Gendebien, who is running in New York’s 21st Congressional District, which borders Canada, told The Washington Sun.
Gendebien is running against Republican Anthony Constantino for the open seat currently held by Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee moved Gendebien to its “red to blue” program last week. On Friday, a new poll by the Siena Research Institute found Gendebien ahead of Constantino by 4 percentage points in the district, within the margin of error.
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The same day, the president visited upstate New York, where he appeared alongside the Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman and asked voters to support Republicans in a slate of House races, including Constantino’s.
In part because of the Trump administration’s tariffs, Democrats are seeing pickup opportunities in places that normally would be considered more of a long shot.
“New York 21 is a seat that Republicans shouldn’t have to worry about, but there’s a very real possibility that it will flip to the Democrats, and reason number one will be Trump’s attacks on Canada,” Jim Kessler, the executive vice president for policy at Third Way, told The Sun.
In a statement to The Sun, Constantino defended the administration’s policies and position on Canada.
“President Trump is fighting to even the scales for the American people and make life better for everybody involved,” Constantino said. “I look forward to going to DC and helping bring the negotiations to a speedy conclusion.”
Gendebien and other Democratic candidates running in battleground states and districts are using positions like those to directly tie their Republican opponents to what they describe as unnecessary policies that are hurting voters already struggling with the price of groceries and fuel.
After trade negotiations collapsed late in the summer, the U.S. ramped up pressure on Canada. It announced 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods worth billions of dollars in August, imposed a ban on Canadian imports of nearly $1 billion, and threatened a 50% auto tariff.
A Washington Post poll conducted in early September found that more than 60% of likely voters in Michigan oppose 50% tariffs on Canadian imports.
Republican Rep. Tom Barrett, who is in a competitive race for reelection in Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, has distanced himself from the president on issues such as the war with Iran. But his campaign is downplaying the effect of the Canada trade dispute on his race.
“I’ve seen plenty of polling that people don’t like this fight with Canada, including Republicans, the overwhelming majority of Republicans, but it doesn’t seem to be revealing itself as an issue in polling, or just in our interactions with people,” Jason Cabel Roe, a senior campaign adviser for Barrett’s campaign, told The Sun.
But Barrett’s opponent, Democrat William Lawrence, has incorporated Canada, the auto industry and tariffs into his economic message to voters.
“[Rep. Barrett] does whatever the president says, and the president is unqualified to set our tariff policy, but Tom Barrett can’t admit that,” Lawrence told The Sun. “He votes in lockstep with the president every single time it matters, and we’re all paying the price.”
Christina Hines, the Democrat running in Michigan’s competitive 10th Congressional District, told The Sun in an interview that in this year’s Labor Day parade celebrations in the state, workers waved the Canadian flag and held signs in solidarity.
“It’s having real implications for people at their kitchen tables. The price of everything is increasing because of these tariffs,” Hines told The Sun.
“Those 50% tariffs on autos could decimate our industry, and the Trump administration has already handicapped the auto industry as much as it possibly could,” she added.
Her opponent, Republican Michael Bouchard, did not respond to The Sun’s request for comment.
In a statement to The Sun, the White House defended the administration’s position on the tariffs, arguing that Canada rejected “the most generous trade deal of any of America’s trading partners.”
“President Trump pledged to put always American workers, farmers, and businesses first and he has delivered by leveling the playing field for Americans,” Taylor Rogers, a spokesperson for the White House, said in a statement.
The dispute has also been a major issue in Michigan’s Senate race, where Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed is running against former Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican candidate.
“You’re hearing somebody who has cheerled — again — a Canadian tariff policy that we are paying $5,600 a year for,” El-Sayed said of Rogers at a debate last Thursday. “The reason he’s flip-flopping has nothing to do with policy. It has nothing to do with your costs. It has everything to do with his sagging poll numbers.”
Rogers’ campaign, through a spokesperson last week, acknowledged that the campaign has heard some voter concerns on tariffs.
“Just because they say that we’re a rubber stamp for Trump’s [trade] war doesn’t make it true,” Abby Ronson, a campaign operative for Rogers, told The Sun.
Last Wednesday in a political advertisement, Rogers walked back his previous position defending Trump’s tariffs as necessary “when countries cheat American workers.”
“Prices are too high and Canada is not our enemy. We need to end the tariff war — now,” Rogers said in the video.
“I would like to see the deal made,” Rogers reiterated when pressed on the issue at the debate.
In Maine, the dispute is one of the clearest examples of a Republican breaking from the White House.
“Senator Collins opposes the Canadian tariffs and she has voted against them repeatedly,” a spokesperson for Republican Sen. Susan Collins said in a statement.
Troy Jackson, the Democrat running to replace Collins, continues to tie the senator’s campaign to the administration’s policies.
“Troy spent most of his life working along the Canadian border, so he knows how important this relationship is to Maine’s economy, and he sees Trump’s tariffs for what they are: a tax on Maine families and small businesses,” Dan Gottlieb, a spokesperson for the Jackson campaign, told The Sun.
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