The Texas Senate Democratic primary is one of the most closely watched races in the country, with two very different candidates, state Rep. James Talarico and Rep. Jasmine Crockett, vying for the chance to compete in November to try to flip Texas blue. The key to clinching the nomination will likely be decided by Black and Latino voters.
“We’ve seen in the polling that Jasmine Crockett is clearly winning among Black voters, and Talarico probably has a not as big magnitude, but a slight lead among … white voters and Latino voters, depending on what poll you look at,” said Luke Warford, a founding partner of the Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund, a Texas group trying to build a larger Democratic infrastructure. “This is the most competitive Democratic primary we’ve had in a long time.”
A study by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs found that Black and Latino voters make up the majority of the Democratic base in Texas, with Latino likely voters accounting for 28%, Black likely voters for 23%, white likely voters for 44% and others for 5%.
Those numbers demonstrate that the two Democratic candidates need to make significant inroads with voters of color to succeed. Crockett has an edge as a Black woman running against Talarico, who is white.
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Brianna Brown, executive director of the Texas Organizing Project, whose PAC endorsed Crockett, pointed to primary voters wanting to feel represented as a key issue in the contest.
“It really means something to see yourself reflected on a ballot box,” Brown said in an interview. “I’m saying that because, most likely, that means that you have some understanding, there’s some Venn diagram of what your experiences are.”
The dynamics of the two campaigns are completely different. While Talarico and Crockett are running on many of the same issues — pocketbook issues, protesting the administration’s immigration agenda and fighting President Donald Trump — their different backgrounds could appeal to different demographic groups in the primary. Crockett stressed that she plans to stand up to Trump, while Talarico has opted for a message of unity, tapping into his background in the seminary.
There is not enough early voting data to reveal details about where Talarico and Crockett’s constituencies lie. Both have made efforts in the last two weeks to visit areas with diverse populations, including Houston, Austin, Dallas and the Rio Grande Valley, in the hopes of boosting turnout among key voting blocs.
“The majority of Texans are of color,” Brown said. “This is one of those states where, and we’re the only state where, we’re a majority of color, yet we have Republican leadership. We have the most registered Black voters of anywhere else in this country, and we have the most eligible but unregistered Black voters, and those Black voters have been making a difference in the biggest counties in the state of Texas in delivering Democratic leadership [in Texas].”
The Senate Democrats’ campaign arm is waiting to see how the Republican primary between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt shakes out before they wade into the race, a person familiar with the committee told NOTUS.
There was mixed messaging Wednesday when two separate polls found different results for Crockett and Talarico’s support among primary voters, a sign of how close the race could be. The first, conducted by Impact Research, showed Talarico with a 4% lead over Crockett, 47% to 43%. Another poll from the University of Texas at Austin showed Crockett with a double-digit lead over Talarico. When asked who they would vote for in the Democratic primary if it were held today, Crockett had 56% compared to 44% for Talarico.
Senate Democrats on Capitol Hill were not eager to pick sides on who could be a better candidate in the general election.
“I just have had my hands full here,” Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren told NOTUS when asked to weigh in on the race.
“I am paying more attention to the Paxton, Cornyn part of this,” Delaware Sen. Chris Coons said. “Ken Paxton is someone whose background, personal conduct, values and positions I would find exceptionally difficult to work with.”
“I think the fact that it’s highly contested is evidence of the fact that we have a great shot at winning in Texas, so a competitive primary in Texas is a high-class problem,” Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy said about the Crockett-Talarico match-up.
Regardless of Tuesday night’s outcome, Texas is expected to be a closely watched race in November. Democrats see a greater chance to flip the state if Cornyn fails to get the nomination. But the party admits it’s still unclear how things will play out.
“We’ve seen a huge amount of variance across the polls,” Warford said. “It’s a coin flip.”
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